'One Nation One Election': How the numbers stack up in Parliament. Can the Modi government secure the votes it needs? | Mint

The central government led by Prime Minister Narendra Modi on Wednesday gave the green light to the 'One Nation, One Election' proposal, which would align the polling stations for both the Lok Sabha and state assemblies.

The report of the high-level committee headed by former President Ram Nath Kovind, which advocated simultaneous elections, was placed before the Union Cabinet, which approved it. “This is an important step towards making our democracy even more vibrant and participatory,” Modi said in a message on X.

The committee has recommended that implementation be done in two phases: simultaneous elections to the Lok Sabha and state assemblies in the first phase, followed by synchronised local elections within a period of 100 days in the second phase.

The Kovind panel has recommended amending the last five articles of the Constitution to allow simultaneous elections in the country. This includes amendments to Article 83, which governs the term of the Lok Sabha, and Article 172, which governs the term of state assemblies.

A bill to that effect will likely be introduced in Parliament during the coming winter period, before the proposal is implemented.

Modi government vs rest

The Kovind panel had sought the views of 62 political parties. A total of 47 political parties submitted their views to the panel on simultaneous polls. Of them, 32 were in favour and 15 were against, according to a report in Indian Express.

The 32 parties that supported the move were either allies of the Bhartiya Janata Party (BJP) in the National Democratic Alliance (NDA) or friendly parties. The NDA partner – the Telugu Desam Party, which did not give an opinion to the panel, has said it supports the move in principle.

And of the 15 parties opposing simultaneous elections, five are opposition parties, other than the NDA, which are in power in states, including the Congress.

The Lok Sabha Scenario

The BJP does not have a majority in the Lok Sabha, unlike in its two previous terms. It will rely on its NDA allies and friendly parties.

In terms of strength in the Lok Sabha, the parties supporting the 'One Nation, One Election' proposal comprise 271 MPs in the lower house, including 240 BJP MPs. This is just one short of a simple majority of 271 in the Lok Sabha.

The 15 parties that opposed simultaneous polls while submitting their views to the panel comprise 205 MPs. Of these, the opposition members of the INDIA bloc account for 203 MPs. The INDIA bloc, including the parties that did not take a stand before the panel, comprises 234 Lok Sabha MPs.

The NDA, including the TDP and other parties that have so far remained neutral in the simultaneous elections, has a Lok Sabha strength of 293 MPs. However, the Modi government needs 362 votes (MPs), or a two-thirds majority, in the Lok Sabha if it sits with a full strength of 543.

The bill can only get a two-thirds majority if more than 100 MPs abstain from voting, which would weaken the power of the Lok Sabha.

It is clear that the government needs the support of non-NDA and opposition parties to get the constitutional amendment bill passed in the Lok Sabha.

The Rajya Sabha Numbers

The Modi government has a better reputation in the Rajya Sabha, but the numbers are not enough to get the bill passed.

The BJP-led NDA has 115 MPs in Rajya Sabha. In addition, there are six nominated members, taking the NDA's tally to 121 MPs in the upper house. The INDIA bloc has 85 MPs in Rajya Sabha.

If all 250 members of the Rajya Sabha are present during the voting, the simple majority would be 125 and two-thirds would be 164 MPs. At present, there are 234 MPs in the Rajya Sabha.

Given his predicament, it will not be easy for the Modi government to push through the bill implementing the 'One Nation, One Election' proposal in the next parliamentary term.