Moscow has also accused Ukraine of using civilians as human shields.
Paris:
The Russian military may have made less progress than planned in the five days of war in Ukraine, but experts warned Monday not to jump to conclusions about the apparent slowdown.
The army is preparing attacks on the Ukrainian capital Kiev and other cities while trying to link up its assault forces in the south of the country.
Both strategies are sure to endanger many more civilians.
– Not stuck –
The US Department of Defense has said Russia was “frustrated” by stiff Ukrainian resistance, saying half of Moscow’s troops previously flocked to the border are now in Ukraine.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky urged Russian soldiers to lay down their weapons, saying they should “just save your lives”.
But experts say Russia’s war effort is far from running out.
“They’re not stuck,” said Olivier Kempf, head of La Vigie, a strategic consulting firm.
“This is war, so there are difficulties. They may have logistical problems. But whatever we are told, they are making progress,” he told AFP. “Only in video games do you conquer a country in two days.”
Russia’s overall superiority, especially in the air, gives it “a significant degree of freedom of movement across the country,” said Nick Brown of Janes, a British defense intelligence agency.
“Satellite images of long lines of vehicles in the open suggest they are confident in their own position and in Ukraine’s inability to roll them up,” he said.
– Southern connection –
Fighting is ongoing in southern Ukraine, where Russian forces have moved forward from Crimea, now leaving a gap of only a few tens of kilometers (miles) between the southwestern and southeastern flanks of the Russian army.
Ukrainian forces are fighting hard to prevent a linkage of the two Russian attack wings, which experts say would be a game changer.
The strategic port cities of Odessa to the west and Mariupol – still in Ukraine’s hands – to the east are the region’s main targets for Russia.
A fall of Mariupol “would allow territorial continuity between the Rostov-on-Don region and Crimea,” said a French military source, who declined to be named.
This would give Russia the opportunity to “absorb or annex” all of eastern Ukraine, the source said.
Russia could also join a pincer movement against Ukrainian forces in the breakaway Donbas region – even if it could be challenging to “conquer, hold and dominate the territory they have conquered to ensure their own security” Brown warned.
– Strike indiscriminately –
The number of civilian casualties on the Ukrainian side is limited to several hundred, and Russia has told Kiev residents they are free to leave the city south.
Moscow has also accused Ukraine of using civilians as human shields.
“Ukraine is not like Syria to the Russians,” said a European diplomatic source. “It’s much harder for them to justify carpet bombing.”
Aware that many Russians have friends and family in Ukraine, Putin deliberately labeled the leaders in Kiev as “Nazis,” the source said, because “Russians are not starting to see Ukrainians as enemies.”
The call for the population to leave Kiev could pave the way for more intense air strikes on the capital, the French military source said.
In Kharkiv, meanwhile, Russian forces are firing rockets in the intense battle for Ukraine’s second-largest city, the source said.
“That means the Russians are hitting hard, and increasingly indiscriminately,” the source said. “The next few days will be much more difficult.”
This view was shared elsewhere, with a security source telling AFP that a second Russian wave of attack was “threatening”.
“They are preparing something very big,” added a diplomatic source.
(Except for the headline, this story has not been edited by DailyExpertNews staff and has been published from a syndicated feed.)
