UAE:
Taking sides in Ukraine’s crisis would once have been easy for the Gulf states long protected by the US, but growing ties to Moscow are forcing them to strike a balance.
As the world hastened to condemn the Russian invasion of its smaller neighbor, the wealthy Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) nations, including Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates (UAE), have largely kept quiet.
Middle Eastern experts say their reluctance is understandable given what’s at stake: energy, money and security.
“Not only are economic ties growing, but also the security ties of these states with Moscow,” said Anne Gadel, a golf expert and contributor to the French think tank Institut Montaigne.
On Friday, the UAE, along with China and India, abstained from a vote in the US Security Council demanding Moscow withdraw its troops.
Russia, as expected, vetoed the resolution co-written by the US and Albania, with 11 of the council’s 15 members voting for it.
Following the vote, the Emirates’ new agency, WAM, said UAE and US foreign ministers spoke by phone to discuss “global developments”. No mention was made of Ukraine.
Russia’s Foreign Ministry, meanwhile, announced that the foreign ministers of the UAE and the Russian Federation would meet in Moscow on Monday to discuss “the further expansion of Russia-UAE’s multifaceted relations”.
Hours before Russia unleashed its massive ground, sea and air strike on Ukraine on Thursday, the UAE had emphasized “the depth of friendship” with Moscow.
Gulf power Saudi Arabia has not responded to the invasion, as have the UAE, Bahrain and Oman. Kuwait and Qatar have only denounced the violence and have not criticized Moscow.
‘Ideological ally’
For more than seven decades, the United States has played a key role in the conflict-ridden Middle East, most notably as a defender of the oil-rich Gulf monarchies against potential threats such as Iran.
But in recent years, Washington has begun to curtail its military activities in the region, even as its closest allies Saudi Arabia and the UAE have been attacked by the Huthi rebels in Yemen.
The facilities of the Saudi oil giant Aramco were hit in 2019 by the insurgents linked to Iran.
Gulf states “understand that they need to diversify their alliances to offset the perceived withdrawal of the United States from the region,” Gadel said.
Politics is also central.
Saudi Arabia and the UAE, two US allies hosting US troops, have seen their ties with Washington turn into a love-hate relationship over arms deals and rights issues.
The 2018 murder of Saudi journalist Jamal Khashoggi at the kingdom’s consulate in Istanbul has strained relations with Riyadh and the UAE has threatened to cancel a mega deal for US-made F-35 fighter jets.
“Russia is seen as an ideological ally, while American human rights obligations attached to their support are becoming a growing problem,” said Andreas Krieg, Middle East expert and associate professor at King’s College London.
“There is talk of an integration of grand strategy between Moscow and Abu Dhabi when it comes to the region. Both are counter-revolutionary forces and eager to curb political Islam.”
‘Diplomatics a difficult place’
Despite growing security cooperation with Russia, which is directly involved in the Syrian and Libyan conflicts, Krieg says most GCC states “will still put their security eggs in the US basket”.
But “they have begun to diversify relations with American competitors and adversaries in other domains”.
Trade between Russia and the GCC countries rose from about $3 billion in 2016 to more than $5 billion in 2021, mainly with the UAE and Saudi Arabia, official figures show.
The UAE, especially Dubai, has long been seen as a magnet for Russian investment and a vacation destination for the Russian elite.
As major players in the energy markets, most GCC states have a relationship with Russia as fellow producers.
Riyadh and Moscow lead the OPEC+ alliance and have strictly controlled production in recent years to boost prices.
“Arab members of OPEC are diplomatically in a difficult position as maintaining ‘the OPEC+ deal, which controls production,’ is clearly at the forefront of their considerations,” said Ellen Wald, senior fellow at the Atlantic think tank. council.
“Gulf countries fear to damage this relationship and are trying to maintain Russia’s participation in OPEC+… If Russia left the group, the entire agreement would likely collapse.”
Despite calls from some major oil importers to crude oil producers to increase supply and help stabilize rising prices, Riyadh, the world’s largest exporter, has shown no interest.
“Silence about Russian action in Ukraine is probably the best course of action right now,” Wald said.
“But this pragmatic attitude could become untenable if Western leaders put pressure on their position.”
(This story was not edited by DailyExpertNews staff and was generated automatically from a syndicated feed.)