Russia supplies about a third of the gas and crude oil imported by the European Union. Last year, according to industry estimates, Russia supplied about 128 billion cubic meters of gas to Europe, and about a third of it flowed through Ukrainian territory.
Russia has cut that flow this winter, and its bid to open the Nord Stream 2 pipeline, which connects Siberia to Germany, would give it a way to route all of its gas around Ukraine, providing a major source of revenue for Ukraine’s economy. government is paralyzed, while European dependence on Russian supply.
The initiative to move fuel from alternative sources to Europe before a real crisis breaks out has been described by officials in the Biden administration as a key element in assuring allies they can weather any supply disruption from Russia. And they argue that Russia’s massive reliance on its oil and gas sales — which account for more than a third of the country’s gross domestic product and much of its government revenues — creates a vulnerability in Moscow that Western allies can exploit.
“If Russia decides to arm its supplies of natural gas or crude oil,” a senior official told reporters in a phone call on Tuesday morning, “it would not be without consequences for the Russian economy. Remember, this is a one-dimensional economy, and that means that it needs at least as much oil and gas revenues as Europe needs its energy supply.”
Understand the escalating tensions over Ukraine
The official added: “We expect to be ready to provide alternative supplies that cover a significant portion of the potential shortfall.”
The official declined to say which countries were cooperating in the effort to quickly replace oil and gas from Russia, but some sources are obvious, including Saudi Arabia and existing suppliers, such as Norway. But all those suppliers face capacity constraints, so the US efforts seem to be focused on getting incremental increases from various sources.
The official, who declined to be identified under the briefing rules set by the administration, said the effort is aimed at encouraging “a few shipments from different suppliers” and could involve shipping shipments of liquefied natural gas from the United States. States and other manufacturers.