Cisneros, who is backed by progressives such as Representative Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, is rematching Cuellar, a Democrat who opposed abortion rights, after falling narrowly short in the 2020 runoff primary. But, as Edgar Sandoval reported, conservatives have Democrats in some parts of South Texas might have better luck.
When the FBI raided Cuellar’s home and campaign office earlier this year, the political analysis changed. The target of the FBI investigation remains unclear, and national Republican groups are looking to see if there is a window to who will get out of the GOP primary.
That doesn’t necessarily mean Cisneros is more likely to take the Democrat seat than Cuellar. If national abortion rights groups get involved in the race, they could push Republicans to play more aggressively in the district.
“It doesn’t help trying to actually change the political dynamic in Texas when national organizations come in, brand themselves liberal, wave blue flags and say we’re going to make things blue and turn it around,” said Matt Angle, the founder of the Lone Star Project, which provides opposition research and other support to Democratic candidates in Texas.
There is a third Democrat on the ballot for the race, so it’s possible neither Cuellar nor Cisneros will make up for Tuesday’s primary. If the race moves to a primary runoff, it’ll be a few more months for the Cisneros-Cuellar primaries to unfold — and more time to see what happens to the FBI investigation.
The only competitive home seat
There is only one district built to be truly competitive in 2022. But we probably won’t know who’s participating until May.
The incumbent in South Texas’ 15th congressional district is said to have been Representative Vicente Gonzalez, a Democrat. Instead, however, he chose to run in a seat that was slightly safer for Democrats after the realignment, leaving his current seat open.
