Jerusalem:
Once a ceasefire agreement between Israel and Hamas takes effect, some of the focus will shift to the monumental task of rebuilding and governing the war-ravaged Gaza Strip.
Israel has vowed to crush Hamas in retaliation for the October 7, 2023, attack, the deadliest in Israeli history.
The militant movement emerges from the war, the worst Gaza has ever seen, greatly weakened but not yet completely defeated.
And fearing a repeat of the October 7 attack, Israel wants security guarantees.
– What are the challenges? –
The humanitarian situation is dire in Gaza, which was under an Israeli blockade even before the war and where poverty and unemployment were rampant.
The UN estimates that rebuilding the area, which has destroyed more than half of the structures, will take 15 years and cost as much as $50 billion.
Critical infrastructure, including water distribution networks, has suffered extensive damage, while hunger ravages the makeshift shelters where most Gazans have taken refuge during the war.
Nearly all of the area's 2.4 million people have been displaced at least once due to bombing and fighting, the UN says.
Most children have not been to school for more than a year and only a handful of hospitals are still partially operational.
“It is surreal to ignore the political stakes given the scale of human and material destruction that has made Gaza uninhabitable,” said Xavier Guignard, a researcher on Palestinian issues at France-based Noria Research.
While Hamas has ruled Gaza since 2006, its rival the Palestinian Authority (PA), dominated by the Fatah movement, controls the West Bank.
“The Palestinian Authority does not have the resources and would be dependent on external donors,” Guignard said.
“Reconstruction plans are often dependent on the monarchies in the Gulf states, especially Saudi Arabia, providing financial support. But these countries increasingly insist that the era of unconditional financing is over,” he added.
“Whatever happens will be a headache for everyone involved,” a diplomat said on condition of anonymity.
– What does Hamas want? –
Hamas, which won the last Palestinian parliamentary elections in 2006, signaled earlier in the war that it was not interested in ruling Gaza after the conflict.
“We are not willing to come back to rule the Gaza Strip,” senior Hamas official Bassem Naim said in a media interview last year.
Hamas sources have told AFP that they would be willing to transfer Gaza's civil affairs to a Palestinian entity.
“In 2014, after the previous war, Hamas did not directly intervene in the reconstruction and showed flexibility by accepting an external committee,” said Yasser Abu Hein, a Palestinian political analyst.
Palestinian leaders from various factions have long said Gaza's future is theirs to decide, rejecting any outside interference.
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has ruled out any role for Hamas in Gaza's post-war governance.
During discussions in Cairo, representatives of Hamas and Fatah agreed that Gaza could be governed by a committee of impartial figures under the PA.
On Tuesday, US Secretary of State Antony Blinken said the PA should “invite international partners to help establish and lead an interim government” in Gaza.
Quietly supported by parts of the international community, the PA maintains a presence in Gaza, mainly through municipal workers.
Unofficial negotiations are underway over the reopening of the Rafah crossing, which connects Gaza with Egypt.
If the PA secures a role in the management of Rafah, it could allow it to reestablish itself in Gaza.
– What does Israel want? –
From Sunday, ceasefire mediators the United States, Qatar and Egypt will monitor the ceasefire through a body in Cairo, Qatar's prime minister said.
Israel occupied Gaza from 1967 to 2005, when it unilaterally withdrew and evacuated settlers.
Currently, Israel has no definitive position on post-war governance, other than rejecting any role for Hamas.
Former Defense Minister Yoav Gallant, who resigned in early November, said Israel does not want to govern Gaza after the war.
His successor, Israel Katz, has called for “total freedom of action” for the Israeli army in the area.
Some far-right politicians, including government members, have called for the return of settlers.
Some Israeli media have also raised the possibility of an international force to help administer Gaza.
(Except for the headline, this story has not been edited by DailyExpertNews staff and is published from a syndicated feed.)