A large and vociferous youth electorate hungry to transform one of Latin America’s most unequal societies could propel Gustavo Petro, a former rebel, to the presidency.
FUSAGASUGÁ, Colombia — The man onstage surrounded by a screaming, sweating, fawning crowd seemed an odd choice for a youth icon. Gustavo Petro is grey-haired, 62, and in his speeches he is more of a roaring preacher than a jovial TikTok star.
But after an unlikely rise from clandestine rebel to mayor of Bogotá and an optimistic face from the Colombian opposition, Petro could soon become the country’s first left-wing president, a turning point for one of the most politically conservative societies in Latin America.
And its rise has been driven in large part by the biggest, loudest and possibly angriest youth voter crowd in Colombia’s history, demanding the transformation of a country long split by deep social and racial inequalities.
There are now nearly nine million Colombian voters aged 28 or younger, the most in history, and a quarter of the electorate. They are restrained, raised with promises of higher education and good jobs, disillusioned with the current prospects, more digitally connected and arguably stronger than any previous generation.
“Petro is change,” said Camila Riveros, 30, wearing a Colombian flag at a campaign event this month outside Bogotá, the capital. “People are tired of eating dirt.”
As Colombians prepare to vote on Sunday, Mr. Petro pledged to overhaul the country’s capitalist economic model and massively expand its social programs. education, including by taxing the rich.
Petro has been leading the polls for months – although surveys suggest he will face a runoff in June – and his popularity reflects both left-wing gains in Latin America and an anti-sedentary enthusiasm that has grown as the pandemic hits the region. plagues.
“We have to make a decision,” said Mr. Petro this month at another campaign event in the Caribbean city of Cartagena. “We keep things as they are, or we scream: Freedom!”
But critics say Petro is not fit for office, arguing that his policies, which include a plan to halt all new oil exploration in a country where fuel is a crucial export commodity, would ruin the economy.
He has also launched direct attacks on the country’s key institutions – especially the armed forces – escalating tensions with military leaders and raising concerns about the stability of Colombia’s long-standing but fragile democracy.
Petro’s main opponent, Federico Gutiérrez, 47, a former mayor of Medellín, the country’s second largest city, and the candidate of the conservative establishment, is proposing a more modest way forward.
“Of course we need to change a lot of things,” he said in an interview, citing a plan that would ramp up fracking for oil, send more money to local governments and create a special unit to fight urban crime. “But change can never mean a leap into the void without a parachute.”
A third candidate, Rodolfo Hernández, 77, a former mayor with a populist anti-corruption platform, has risen in the polls.
The elections come at a difficult time for the country. Polls show widespread dissatisfaction with the government of the current president, Iván Duque, which is backed by the same political coalition as Mr Gutiérrez, and frustration over chronic poverty, a widening income gap and insecurity, all of which have been exacerbated during the pandemic.
Among those most affected by these problems are younger Colombians, who are likely to play a big part in determining whether the country makes a big leap to the left.
Youth led anti-government protests last year that filled the streets of Colombia and dominated the national discussion for weeks. At least 46 people died – many of them young, unarmed protesters and many at the hands of the police – in what was called the ‘national strike’.
Some analysts expect young people to vote in record numbers, boosted not only by Mr. Petro, but also by his running mate, Francia Márquez, 40, a gender, race and class-conscious environmentalist who would become the country’s first black. his vice president.
“The TikTok generation that is very connected to Francia, who is very connected to Petro, will be decisive,” said Fernando Posada, 30, a political analyst.
Today’s younger generation is the most educated in Colombian history, but also struggles with 10 percent annual inflation, 20 percent youth unemployment and 40 percent poverty. Many – supporters and critics alike of Mr. Petro – say they feel betrayed by decades of leaders who have promised opportunities but delivered few.
In a May poll by the Invamer firm, more than 53 percent of voters ages 18 to 24 and about 45 percent of voters ages 25 to 34 said they planned on Mr. Petro to vote. In both age groups, less than half of those numbers said they would vote for Mr Gutierrez or Mr Hernández.
Natalia Arévalo, 30, a single mother of three, marched for days during protests last year, carrying her daughter, Lizeth, 10, with a placard around her neck that read: “What awaits us, children?”
“You have to choose between paying your debts and feeding your children,” said Ms Arévalo, who supports Mr Petro.
“You can’t eat eggs, you can’t eat meat, you can’t eat anything,” she added. “We need to turn everything we’ve had for the past 20 years 180 degrees.”
Certainly, many young voters are skeptical of Mr. Petro to keep his promises.
In Fusagasugá, Nina Cruz, 27, a cafe worker, said that Mr. Petro would disappoint Colombia’s struggling families, and she was especially disgusted by his past as a member of a left-wing rebel group.
The country has a long history of violent militias that claim to help the needy – and ultimately terrorize them.
“What he says is, ‘I’m going to help the poor,'” she said. “That’s a total lie.”
Mr. Petro, an economist, grew up outside of Bogotá. As a teenager, he joined the M-19, a left-wing city militia that tried to seize power and claimed to promote social justice.
The group was never as large or as violent as the country’s main guerrilla force, the Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia, or FARC. But in 1985, the M-19 occupied a national courthouse, sparking a fight with the police and military that killed 94 people.
Mr Petro, who did not participate in the takeover, was jailed for his involvement with the group.
He eventually demobilized and ran for a Senate seat, emerging as the combative face of the left, urging open conversations about corruption and misconduct.
Some critics have warned that Mr Petro’s energy proposals would bankrupt the country. Oil represents 40 percent of Colombia’s exports and Juan Carlos Echeverry, a former finance minister, said that stopping oil exploration “would be economic suicide”.
mr. Petro also has a reputation for being authoritarian. As Bogotá’s mayor, he evaded the city council and often didn’t listen to advisers, said Daniel Garcia-Peña, who worked with Mr Petro for ten years before retiring in 2012. In his letter of resignation, Mr. Garcia-Peña called Mr. Garcia-Peña. Petro “a despot.”
The election comes as polls show growing distrust in the country’s democratic institutions, including the country’s National Clerk, an electoral body that botched the first ballot in a congressional election in March.
The flaw, which the clerk called procedural, has raised concerns that losing candidates will indicate fraud, creating a legitimacy crisis.
The country is also ravaged by increasing violence and threatens to undermine the democratic process. The Mission for Electoral Observation, a local group, called the pre-election period the most violent in 12 years.
Candidates pushing for change have been killed on the campaign trail before.
Both Mr Petro and Ms Márquez have received death threats, and during his campaign event in Cartagena, he took the stage flanked by men wearing bulletproof shields.
Some voters held placards that read “Black children’s lives matter” and “if it’s not Petro, we’re screwed.”
There was excitement – but also trepidation.
“What we want are opportunities for everyone,” said Lauren Jiménez, 21, a college student.
But “if Petro can’t go through, I know we’ll see the same thing we saw with the Duque administration: a social explosion,” she warned. “Because we’re tired of keeping quiet.”
Sofia Villamil contributed reporting from Bogotá, and Federico Rios from Cartagena.
