TOKYO — Even before President Biden traveled to Tokyo this week to cement a partnership with Australia, India and Japan, the alliance struggled to form a united front as India refrained from joining the other nations. condemning the Russian invasion of Ukraine.
Now, with comments President Biden made about Taiwan on Monday, the Indo-Pacific bloc is facing another, unexpected complication. On the eve of a four-nation summit, Mr. Biden said he would defend the democratic island militarily if it were invaded by China, sending shockwaves around the world and placing the allies in an awkward position.
On Tuesday, in Tokyo, Mr Biden tried to temper his comments. Alongside the three other leaders of the group known as the Quad, he said his administration had not given up on the “strategic ambiguity” about Taiwan long embraced by the United States. Asked if he would send troops if China attacked Taiwan, Biden said, “Policy has not changed at all.”
Still, his comments from the day before, when he answered “yes” after being asked by a reporter if he was “willing to get involved militarily to defend Taiwan,” left political leaders around the world trying to determine his true mindset. and calibrate their own thoughts. positions.
Mr Biden’s comments posed an immediate and likely unwelcome challenge to Australia’s new Prime Minister Anthony Albanese. Just hours after being sworn in on Monday, Mr Albanese flew to Tokyo with his new foreign secretary, Penny Wong, who had sharply criticized her party’s election opponents during the campaign for suggesting that Australia would follow the United States. in every war over Taiwan.
“Strengthening the prospect of war against a superpower is the most dangerous electoral tactic in Australian history,” Ms Wong said at the time.
Before the election, analysts had expected that if Mr Albanian became prime minister, he would change the government’s tone towards China, even if he did not make major policy changes. Australia’s previous prime minister, Scott Morrison, often spoke belligerently about the Chinese government as relations reached a decades-long low.
While Mr Albanian was on his way to Tokyo, Chinese Prime Minister Li Keqiang offered a congratulatory message, ending a nearly three-year freeze on diplomacy between Australia and China with a call for “healthy and stable” relations. Chinese state media said the meeting of the Quad, which it has called an anti-Chinese alliance, would be seen as an immediate test of Mr Albanian’s “political wisdom”.
Now asking again about whether Australia would support a military defense of Taiwan would throw off any relaxation that might arise. It could also shift the focus from topics that Mr. Albanian’s government would rather highlight: greater ambition on climate change and greater aid and diplomatic engagement with countries in Southeast Asia and the Pacific Islands.
Mr Albanese and his government would favor “cautious, incremental change” in China, said James Curran, a historian at the University of Sydney. At the same time, he added: “They will not want them to ease the pressure on our policy towards China.”
Japan was also placed in a complicated position. With Japan’s westernmost inhabited island just 65 miles from Taiwan, a war with China could draw a nation that has denied armed conflict into dangerous territory.
The Japanese government is on track to significantly increase defense spending as it confronts China’s growing ambitions in the region, and has discussed plans to acquire weapons capable of attacking missile launch sites in enemy territory. .
But contrary to Mr Biden’s statement on Monday, Japan’s Prime Minister Fumio Kishida made an effort to maintain ambiguity when asked about Taiwan. “The basic position of our two countries towards Taiwan remains unchanged,” said Mr. Kishida.
While some hawks in Kishida’s ruling Liberal Democratic Party said they were pleased Biden had revealed his “true intentions,” more cautious voices expressed concern that the president could heighten tensions with China and accelerate an arms race.
But when the Quad leaders met on Tuesday, they tried to reach consensus where they could. The bloc announced new initiatives in cybersecurity, space, vaccine distribution and a data-sharing partnership to monitor shipping lanes in the South China Sea, in an effort to counter what the government has described as aggressive maritime tactics of China in the region.
The countries released a joint statement calling for “peace and stability” in Ukraine and acknowledging “the tragic humanitarian crisis” caused by the war. At the beginning of his meeting with Mr Modi of India, Mr Biden said the two would discuss the “unjustified invasion of Ukraine”. But Mr Modi did not mention Russia.
His country was hesitant to criticize the Kremlin, in part for fear of undermining its security and economic ties. Biden’s administration officials said that while the two countries disagreed on Russia, they could still work together on investments in the Indo-Pacific region that counter China’s growing influence.
Mr Kishida emphasized at a press conference after his own meeting with Mr Modi that the two countries agreed on principles such as the rule of law and sovereignty.
“No one should mistake the Quad for a partnership based on shared values, despite rhetoric to that effect,” said Aaron Connelly, a research associate at the International Institute for Strategic Studies in Singapore. “The real hope of the four governments is that it will develop into a balancing coalition that will deter Beijing from aggressive actions on China’s periphery. This is a coalition based on realpolitik, not values.”
However, Connelly noted that “there is a lot of skepticism about the Quad in Southeast Asia,” where countries feel unwanted pressure to take sides between the United States and China.
“Many here see it as amplifying geopolitical tensions in ways that increase risk,” Connelly said.
Biden’s comments on Taiwan came as the United States launched a new economic framework with a dozen other allies designed to counter China’s dominance. Wang Yi, China’s foreign minister, said on Monday that the Indo-Pacific Economic Framework should not become a tool for America to “force regional countries to take sides,” and said attempts to contain China were doomed to failure. .
Although China’s initial response to the president’s comments on Monday was relatively muted, Wang Wenbin, a spokesman for the foreign ministry, escalated his language on Tuesday, accusing the United States of implicitly supporting Taiwan’s independence, a red line that Beijing has marked. has said it will never let it cross.
“If it continues on the wrong path, not only will it irreversibly damage US-China relations, but America will ultimately pay an unbearable price,” Mr. Wang said. He quoted an old Chinese song: “When a friend comes, there is good wine; if a jackal comes, he is greeted with a shotgun.”
Rahm Emanuel, the US ambassador to Japan, said China’s words reflected its isolation.
“China wants America out of their backyard,” he said. “They hate that we have allies and friends because it highlights everything they have subjects and dependents. Everything we do in defense, national security, economic partnership and political commitment underscores our alliances and enduring strength.”
Reporting was contributed by Vivian Wang in Hong Kong, John Liu in Taipei, Damien Cave in Sydney, Australia, and Motoko Rich in Tokyo.
