In December, China abruptly abandoned its draconian “Zero Covid” policy, battered by a wave of infections and rising public anger against lockdowns. Half a year later, Covid cases are on the rise again, but this time the country seems determined to get on with normal life as the government focuses on rekindling economic growth.
While other countries have long settled into such a pattern, it is a shift for China. Until late last year, the national leadership was still poised to shut down entire neighborhoods and districts, even cities, in an effort to wipe out sometimes small clusters of cases.
Chinese health authorities have reported a rise in Covid cases since April, especially of newer sub-variants spreading around the world. Dr. Zhong Nanshan, a prominent doctor who was one of the first to openly confirm in early 2020 that Covid could easily spread among people, estimated on Monday that as many as 65 million people a week across China could become infected with the coronavirus by the end of June. . (That would be higher than what he estimated at 40 million infections per week at the end of May. China no longer regularly publishes official nationwide infection estimates.)
By comparison, after the “Zero Covid” checks were shelved in December, the number of new infections in China peaked at 37 million a day, according to Bloomberg estimates.
Even if, like Dr. Zhong acknowledged, the rate of rising infections is fraught with uncertainty, an uptick in cases has always been likely, and many in China seem hardened to live with a background buzz of Covid infections and sometimes Covid deaths.
“People have become accustomed to infections and see this as normal in the post-Covid era,” 36-year-old Lin Zixian, who works for a technology company in Beijing, said in a telephone interview. China’s leader, Xi Jinping, still often wears a medical mask when meeting people indoors. But Mr. Lin said he and other members of his family had stopped masking in most public areas, as had many people in China.
“A lot of my friends got infected last year and got infected again this year,” said Mr. Lin. “Personally, I’m pretty calm about the virus and the pandemic.”
Officials across China appear to be trying to prepare the population for an increase in infections without reintroducing the heavy controls that exhausted the public’s patience late last year. Since the government lifted its severe restrictions on domestic travel, it has turned to boosting growth and job creation. The roughly 20 percent unemployment rate among urban youth may seem more politically urgent than the rising Covid numbers.
“After most people caught the last wave, the intensity was gone,” said Dali Yang, a political science professor at the University of Chicago who is finishing a book on China’s handling of the pandemic.
He added that China is now treating Covid as a “Class B” disease – not the most urgent category – and that officials, while keeping an eye on the latest increase in cases, “have also tried to reassure the public by saying that the symptoms are relatively mild. ”
Beijing health officials have recommended wearing masks on buses and subways, but it’s not mandatory and quite a few passengers don’t, especially younger ones. While the recent surge in cases may still put hospitals under pressure, many people seem more willing to endure the illness at home than to go to fever clinics.
“Even if my son got Covid, I wouldn’t mind staying in the same room with him,” said Mr. Lin, the tech worker.
For many younger patients, infection can mean a week or so of fever and other symptoms. In recent weeks, people have been chronicling their symptoms on social media, often in a tone of caustic resignation.
More concerning are older people, many of whom have not had Covid and may not have received a full round of vaccinations. Up to three quarters of Chinese infected during the recent surge were not infected during the first wave, said Dr Zhang Wenhong, the director of the infectious disease center at Huashan Hospital in Shanghai and a key voice in China’s response on Covid. in a recent interview with Chinese media.
Nevertheless, the resurgence in cases “shouldn’t have a huge impact on economic activity and life overall,” said Dr. Zhang, according to Yicai, a Chinese business newspaper. “We should not go too far in taking pandemic prevention measures in response.”
Dong-yan Jin, a professor of virology at the University of Hong Kong who has monitored China’s response to Covid, agreed that many of those recently infected were likely elderly or physically frail people shielded from the “tsunami of infections late last year.
“Elderly people were well protected during the tsunami period because their families and caregivers did their best to protect them,” said Professor Jin. “But now the risks for them are high, because people are less vigilant.”
China should increase vaccination rates, especially among the elderly; upgrade the homegrown vaccine to better protect against new variants; enable the introduction of internationally developed vaccines; and making antivirals cheaper and more available to Covid patients, Professor Jin said.
“Most people have recognized from their own experience that Covid is not a monster and not that terrifying, and that is actually a positive thing,” he said. “But it’s not that Covid is gone and will never come back, so this message needs to be made clear to the public as well.”
Amy Chang Chien reporting contributed.