The North Korean state media has not revealed much about the angelic-faced young girl who has appeared several times in recent weeks with Kim Jong-un, the country’s leader.
On New Year’s Day, the state media carried undated photos of her and Mr. Kim visiting a nuclear missile facility. Her age and name have not yet been reported; she is simply referred to as Mr. Kim’s “most beloved daughter.”
That was enough to raise questions about the young girl’s place in the Kim family dynasty and whether she was being groomed as Mr. Kim’s successor.
North Korea is not a monarchy. The top leader is supposedly elected through a ruling Congress of the Workers’ Party. In reality, the Kims have run the country as a private family business since its inception at the end of World War II.
Both Mr. Kim’s grandfather and father reigned until they died. Mr Kim, who turns 39 next Monday, has been in power for 11 years and is unlikely to be going anywhere anytime soon.
But the question of who would inherit the regime and its burgeoning nuclear arsenal has remained the subject of endless fascination among officials and analysts, especially when doubts about Mr Kim’s health have surfaced.
Speculation about North Korea’s succession plans unfolded as Seoul and Washington said this week they were discussing how to better deal with North Korea’s growing nuclear threat, using the full range of US defense capabilities.
The recent betting game over succession first began after North Korea launched its Hwasong-17 intercontinental ballistic missile on Nov. 18 in one of the country’s most significant weapons tests.
The next day, North Korean state media reported that Mr. Kim had seen the launch with his daughter and released photos of the girl in a white padded jacket, holding Mr. Kim’s hand as they walked around the test site.
Days later, South Korea’s National Intelligence Agency identified the young girl as Kim Ju-ae, the baby retired NBA star Dennis Rodman said he was allowed to hold when he met Mr. Kim in Pyongyang in 2013.
Ju-ae’s public appearance marked the first time Pyongyang confirmed that Mr. Kim had a child. Until her debut in the state media, ordinary North Koreans had never seen any of Mr. Kim’s children.
South Korean intelligence officials have said Mr Kim has three children, the eldest of which is likely a son. Ju-ae is his second child, believed to be 9 or 10 years old, they said.
Outside analysts quickly noted that she was described as “beloved” and chosen to represent the next generation of the Kim family. They were also intrigued by Mr. Kim’s decision to introduce her at a missile test site, highlighting the link between the Kim family and the North’s weapons program.
Succession speculation deepened when Ju-ae rejoined her father, this time in late November for a group photo with rocket engineers. She was dressed more formally for the occasion, with a long black coat and fur collar, her hand resting on her father’s shoulder as he sat before the crowd of cheering engineers. Top generals bowed to her.
“The photos are likely part of a carefully crafted program to show North Koreans that Kim Ju-ae will be the successor,” said Cheong Seong-chang, a longtime Kim family researcher at South Korea’s Sejong Institute. -Korea.
If Mr. Kim chose a daughter over a son as his heir apparent, it would be a highly unusual move in deeply patriarchal North Korea. But Mr. Kim himself was an unlikely choice to become the country’s leader.
The youngest of three sons, Kim leapfrogged his brothers when his father, Kim Jong-il, recognized his domineering attitude and recruited him as a successor, analysts said.
And while the leadership of the North is predominantly male, Kim’s regime also includes some prominent women, such as outspoken presenter Ri Chun-hee, Foreign Minister Choe Son-hui and Kim’s sister and spokeswoman Kim Yo-jong, who has a flurry of bellicose threats against South Korea in recent months.
By revealing a possible successor at an early stage, Mr. Kim may be trying to avoid the mistakes his father made, some analysts said.
Kim Jong-il anointed Mr. Kim as heir when the son was a child, but he kept the secret from his inner circle. Many analysts had speculated that Kim Jong-nam – the senior Kim’s eldest son and Mr. Kim’s half-brother – would become his successor. Others said the father would choose Kim Jong-chol, Mr. Kim’s older brother. Some even said that the succession in North Korea would end with the death of Kim Jong-il.
It was only after the father suffered a stroke in 2008 that North Korea began hinting that Mr. Kim was the chosen successor. Ordinary North Koreans had never seen him until he appeared in state media in 2010.
When his father died in 2011, there was much doubt at home and abroad about Mr. Kim’s ability to lead. It took years for him to establish his unchallenged authority through a series of bloody purges, including the execution of his own uncle and the murder of his half-brother.
After taking power, Mr. Kim made his government and his family less secretive. His father was known for living with beautiful women, including Mr. Kim’s mother, but he never introduced them to the public. One of the first things Mr. Kim did as a leader was to appear in public with his wife, Ri Sol-ju.
By announcing a successor early, Mr. Kim may “give the successor enough time to prepare,” said Mr. Cheong. “He wants his successor to avoid the rushed, rapid succession at home and the skepticism from outside that he had to endure.”
Most analysts agreed that by taking one of his children to events related to his arsenal, Mr. Kim reminded the people of the North, especially the youth, that the dynastic rule and development of nuclear weapons of his family would continue into the next generation.
But not everyone saw Ju-ae’s presence as a sign of exaltation in the family. “It is premature to conclude that she will be the successor, especially if her father has a son,” said Ahn Chan-il, a defector from North Korea who heads a research institute in Seoul.
Tae Yong-ho, a former North Korean diplomat who fled to South Korea in 2016 and is now a legislator in Seoul, told reporters the world would not know Mr. Kim had chosen a successor until the North started a certain child to idolize as a divine figure, as they did with Mr. Kim once his succession was formalized.
Mr. Kim promotes and fires top officials like pieces on a chessboard, regularly reshuffling his government. Last week, Pak Jong-chon, a top military official, was replaced. Those maneuvers have kept observers guessing, but such speculation is banned in the North’s heavily censored news media.
“North Koreans take hereditary rule by the Kim family for granted, as they have never experienced free elections,” said Mr. Ahn. “They are less interested in who rules them and more interested in who will make their lives better than Kim Jong-un.”
