WASHINGTON — The Biden administration has stepped up efforts to reshape Taiwan’s defense systems as it projects a more robust U.S. military presence in the region to try to deter a potential attack by the Chinese military, current and former U.S. officials say officials.
Russia’s war in Ukraine has made American and Taiwanese officials well aware that an autocrat can order an invasion of neighboring territory at any time. But it has also shown how a small army can hold its own against a seemingly powerful enemy.
US officials are drawing lessons from arming Ukraine to work with Taiwan to form a stronger force that could repel a sea invasion by China, which has one of the world’s largest armies.
The goal is to turn Taiwan into what some officials call a “porcupine” — an area filled with weapons and other forms of US-led support that seems too painful to attack.
Taiwan has long had missiles capable of hitting China. But the American-made weapons it has recently purchased — mobile missile platforms, F-16 fighter jets and anti-ship missiles — are better suited to repel an invading force. Some military analysts say Taiwan could later buy naval mines and armed drones. And as in Ukraine, the US government could provide intelligence to increase the lethality of the weapons, even if it refrains from sending troops.
US officials have quietly pressured their Taiwanese counterparts to buy weapons suitable for asymmetric warfare, a conflict in which a smaller army uses mobile systems to launch deadly strikes against a much larger power, US and Taiwanese officials say.
Washington is increasingly using the presence of its military and that of allies as a deterrent. The Pentagon has begun revealing more details about US warships sailing through the Taiwan Strait – 30 since early 2020. And US officials are praising partner countries such as Australia, Britain, Canada and France as their warships cross the strait. sail.
By stepping up their attitude and language, the United States is trying to walk a fine line between deterrence and provocation. According to some analysts, there is a risk that the actions may prompt President Xi Jinping of China to order an attack on Taiwan. A Chinese offensive against Taiwan can take many forms, such as a large-scale naval and air strike on the main island with missiles, an invasion of small islands closest to China’s southeast coast, a naval blockade or a cyber-attack.
“Is it clear what deters China and what provokes China?” said Bonnie S. Glaser, director of the Asia program at the United States’ German Marshall Fund. “The answer to that is ‘no,’ and that’s dangerous territory.”
“We need to think long and hard about how we can strengthen deterrence,” she said.
U.S. officials often discuss possible deterrence actions that are eventually discontinued because they are deemed too provocative. In the Trump administration, National Security Council officials discussed placing US troops in Taiwan, a former official said. White House and Pentagon officials also suggested sending a high-level US military delegation to Taiwan, but that idea was rejected after senior State Department officials objected, another former official said.
Read more about Biden’s trip to Asia
President Biden’s strong language during a visit to Tokyo this week sparked provocation, Ms Glaser and other analysts in Washington said.
The president claimed Monday that the United States had a “commitment” to deploy militarily to defend Taiwan — the third time he’s made such comments during his presidency. And he explicitly said he would take measures beyond what the United States has done in Ukraine. While Beijing could view the words as combative, they are consistent with Washington’s new emphasis on powerful deterrence.
On Tuesday, Biden said in Tokyo that the decades-old policy of “strategic ambiguity” — left open whether the US military would fight for Taiwan — is still in effect. “Policy has not changed at all,” he said.
Harry B. Harris Jr., a former U.S. ambassador to South Korea and a retired admiral who led the U.S. Pacific Command, said the United States should now adopt “strategic clarity” rather than “strategic ambiguity” to act as a deterrent. . China, he said, “will not hold back on its preparations for whatever it decides to do simply because we are ambiguous about our stance.”
The United States has urged allies to speak out on Taiwan in an effort to show Beijing that Washington can rally other nations against China if it attacks the self-governing democratic island. On Monday, Prime Minister Fumio Kishida of Japan said at a news conference with Mr Biden that the two leaders had confirmed “the importance of peace and stability in the Taiwan Strait”.
During the three-month war in Ukraine, Washington has gathered together a coalition of European and Asian partners to impose sanctions on Russia. US officials say they hope the measures send a message to China and other countries about the costs of conducting the kind of invasion overseen by President Vladimir V. Putin of Russia. US officials are already discussing to what extent they can repeat economic sanctions and military aid deployed to defend Ukraine in the event of a conflict over Taiwan.
“I want PLA officers to wake up every day and believe that they cannot isolate Taiwan in a conflict and instead make the decision to start a costly, wider conflict where their objectives are beyond their reach,” he said. Eric Sayers, a former senior adviser to the US Pacific Command, a fellow at the American Enterprise Institute, referring to the Chinese military, the People’s Liberation Army, by his initials.
US intelligence analysts have studied the developing relationship between China and Russia and the lessons Beijing could learn from Ukraine.
Chinese leaders face a complicated calculation when considering whether their military can conquer Taiwan without overwhelming costs.
A Pentagon report released last year said China’s military modernization efforts continued to widen the capacity gap between the country’s armed forces and those of Taiwan. But the Chinese military has not waged a war since 1979, when it attacked Vietnam in an offensive that ended in a strategic loss to China.
To take Taiwan, the Chinese navy would have to cross more than 100 miles of water and launch an amphibious assault, an operation far more complex than anything Putin has attempted in Ukraine.
And either way, the perceived capabilities on paper may not translate into performance in the field.
“As we learned in Ukraine, no one really knows how hard an army will fight until a war actually starts,” said James G. Stavridis, a retired four-star admiral and former dean of the Fletcher School of Law and Diplomacy at Tufts. University. “China is probably not ready to take the risk of invasion with its current force levels and capabilities to attack Taiwan.”
US officials don’t make that assumption. They have pressured Taiwan to buy weapons systems they see fit for asymmetric warfare against China. The Biden administration recently told Taiwan’s Defense Ministry not to order MH-60R Seahawk helicopters from Lockheed Martin, and it has also discouraged orders for more M1A2 Abrams tanks.
Admiral Stavridis said the United States should quickly get weapons into the hands of the Taiwanese if an invasion seemed imminent, with a focus on systems that would wear out China’s offensive capabilities.
“That includes smart mines, anti-ship cruise missiles, cybersecurity capabilities and special forces that can neutralize Chinese advanced teams, and air defense systems,” he said.
US officials view mobility as crucial and encourage Taiwan to buy Harpoon mobile anti-ship missiles. Stinger anti-aircraft missiles can also be valuable for repelling the Chinese Air Force.
The pace of Taiwan’s arms purchases has accelerated. According to last year’s Pentagon report, the United States has announced more than $23 billion in arms sales to Taiwan since 2010. In 2020 alone, authorizations totaled more than $5 billion. Sales included advanced unmanned aerial systems, long-range missiles and artillery, and anti-ship missiles.
Taiwan’s annual defense budget is more than 2 percent of gross domestic product. President Tsai Ing-wen has increased the annual figure by modest amounts.
Both US and Taiwanese officials say Taiwanese troops need better training, but each government wants the other to take more responsibility.
“Taiwanese troops have limited opportunities to conduct exercises with the Allies,” said Shu Hsiao-huang, a researcher at the Institute for National Defense and Security Research, which is funded by the government of Taiwan. “Military cooperation between Taiwan and the United States should be strengthened in the field of regional exercises and the deployment of weapons.”
Ms Glaser said Taiwan needed to create a strong reserve force and a territorial defense force that could wear out an invading army, as the Ukrainians did.
“The US has for years encouraged the Taiwanese military to talk to countries with robust defense forces,” she said. “Taiwan has sent delegations to Israel, Singapore, Finland, Sweden and some Baltic states. Now the situation is much more serious and much more urgent. There is a lot more pressure.”
John Ismay and Julian E. Barnes contributed reporting from Washington, and Amy Chang Chien from Taipei, Taiwan.
