London:
Man-made climate change likely contributed to the deadly floods that have flooded parts of Pakistan in recent weeks, according to a quick analysis on Thursday that looked at the cause of global warming.
An international team of climate scientists from the World Weather Attribution group said rainfall in the worst-affected regions had increased by as much as 75 percent in recent decades and concluded that man-made activity is likely to exceed record levels of August rainfall in Sindh provinces. and Balochistan elevated.
The resulting flood affected more than 33 million people, destroying 1.7 million homes and killing nearly 1,400 people.
To determine the role global warming played in the downpours, the scientists analyzed weather data and computer simulations of the current climate to determine the likelihood of such an event among the roughly 1.2 degrees Celsius warming that has fueled human activity since the industrial age. has caused.
They then compared that probability with data and simulations of past climate conditions — that is, 1.2C cooler than today.
They found that climate change likely increased 5-day rainfall for Sindh and Balochistan by as much as 50 percent.
The analysis showed that there was about a one percent chance of such an event occurring in any given year in our current climatic conditions.
“The same event would probably have been much less likely in a world without human-made greenhouse gas emissions, meaning climate change has made the extreme rainfall more likely,” the team said.
However, the study authors stressed that due to the wide variations in Pakistan’s seasonal monsoon rains, it was not historically possible to conclude that human-induced warming contributed significantly to the total rainfall over 60 days.
“What we’ve seen in Pakistan is exactly what climate projections have been predicting for years,” said Friederike Otto, senior lecturer in Climate Science at the Grantham Institute at Imperial College London.
“It also matches historical data showing that heavy rainfall in the region has increased dramatically since humans began emitting large amounts of greenhouse gases into the atmosphere.”
– Financing needed –
Otto said that while it was difficult to give an accurate figure on the extent to which man-made emissions caused the rainfall, “the fingerprints of global warming are clear.”
The World Meteorological Organization said this week that weather-related disasters like the one in Pakistan have increased fivefold over the past 50 years, killing an average of 115 people a day.
The warning came as countries geared up for Egypt’s COP27 climate summit in November, where high-risk countries will demand rich, historic polluters compensate them for the loss and damage already plaguing their economies and infrastructure from climate-driven climate change.
Fahad Saeed, researcher at the Center for Climate Change and Sustainable Development in Islamabad, said the floods demonstrated the need for wealthier countries to radically ramp up funding to help others adapt to climate change – another key question at COP27.
“Pakistan must also ask developed countries to take responsibility and provide the countries and populations most affected by climate change with adaptation and support in the event of loss and damage.
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