“What the invasion of Ukraine has done is put one of the world’s top three producers of natural gas out of the picture for future planning,” said Charif Souki, executive chairman of Tellurian, a gas company building an export terminal in Louisiana. “No one will rely on Russia in the future. Now the US has the opportunity to become by far the powerhouse of natural gas.”
European countries have expressed an intention to phase out their dependence on more than 150 billion cubic feet of annually imported Russian gas, in part by importing an additional 50 billion cubic feet of LNG, about 50 percent more than it currently imports.
That will not be easy, as the global LNG market is only 523 billion cubic meters per year, of which almost 20 percent already goes to Europe. New LNG export terminals are coming online in the United States and Qatar, but demand is growing even faster, especially in Asian countries trying to reduce air pollution from coal burning.
That leaves the United States, although several of its gas fields lack pipeline capacity and have attracted few large drills because prices were so low until recently.
Since the Russian invasion, the Biden administration has pledged to increase LNG exports to the European Union by 15 billion cubic feet or about 40 percent. That’s only about a tenth of Russia’s shipments to Europe, but US energy experts say US companies could produce and transport much more gas with more pipelines and export terminals.
The export business in the United States is expanding, with three new terminals expected to be completed in 2026. Another 10 waiting for permits, long term buyers and investors. EQT, a leading gas producer, has called on the country to quadruple LNG capacity by 2030, a proposal that has received widespread industry support.
“We have the resources in the ground,” said David Braziel, chief executive of RBN Energy, an analytics firm. “And we could develop them if you have an indication from the administration that they want to develop natural gas wells.”