PARIS – France on Monday questioned whether President Emmanuel Macron would be able to govern effectively after losing his absolute majority in the House of Representatives, as emerging opposition groups threatened to block his legislative agenda and even topple his cabinet.
“Uncontrollable!” Read the front page of Le Parisiena daily newspaper.
After a nationwide vote on Sunday, Macron’s centrist coalition finished first overall, with 245 seats, but fell far short of the absolute majority it enjoyed in the 577 seats during its first term, fueling fears of political deadlock. .
Monday after the vote, much was still uncertain, resulting in a complex and fragmented political landscape with three main opposition groups: a left-wing alliance, the far right and mainstream conservatives. They all won enough seats to potentially hinder Macron’s legislative agenda, but they are also deeply opposed in many ways, limiting the prospect of a broad, sustainable anti-Macron coalition.
Yet so much was clear: After five years of relatively smooth sailing in a National Assembly dominated by his party and its allies, Mr Macron’s second-term agenda is in for a rough ride.
“My biggest fear is that the country will be blocked,” Olivia Grégoire, a spokeswoman for Macron’s government, told France Inter Radio on Monday. She said an upcoming bill to help French households deal with rising inflation was a top priority and would be a first test of the weakened majority’s ability to reach consensus.
Étienne Ollion, a sociologist who teaches at the École Polytechnique, near Paris, said the result marked a significant change for Mr Macron, whose powers dominated Parliament so much in his previous term that the National Assembly nicknamed it the ” Unreachable Room”. a reference to a legislature formed in 1815 and characterized by its zeal for the French king.
“Now it’s an unattainable majority,” said Mr. Ollion.
Presidents occupy the most powerful political office in France, with the ability to rule by decree on some issues, and they have relatively much freedom to conduct foreign policy. But major domestic overhauls that Macron promised during his reelection campaign this year will require a bill in Parliament, such as his controversial plans to raise the statutory retirement age from 62 to 65, which Macron had vowed to implement. by the summer of 2023.
The fate of such accounts is now in jeopardy. Macron will most likely be forced to seek a coalition or form short-term alliances with opposition forces if he wants to pass legislation. A natural fit would be Les Républicains, the mainstream conservative party, which, at least on paper, could support some of Macron’s pro-business policies.
“It’s not completely blocked, it’s a suspended parliament,” said Vincent Martigny, a political science professor at the University of Nice, adding that Mr Macron is “now wholly owned by Les Républicains.”
But leaders of Les Républicains already seemed to rule out a partnership.
“We campaigned in the opposition, we are in the opposition and we will remain in the opposition,” Christian Jacob, the party chairman, said Sunday evening. “Things are very clear,” he added.
The two largest opposition forces in parliament: a broad coalition of left-wing parties, which secured 131 seats; and Marine Le Pen’s far-right National Rally, which lasted 89, have almost pledged to ruthlessly challenge Mr Macron’s government.
Representatives from both armed forces wasted no time on Monday when they called for the resignation of Élisabeth Borne, the prime minister appointed by Macron last month.
“The government as formed by Emmanuel Macron cannot continue to rule as if nothing had happened,” Manuel Bompard, a member of the far-left France Unbowed party, told French channel BFMTV on Monday. With 72 seats, France Unbowed, led by Jean-Luc Mélenchon, is the largest force in the left-wing coalition.
The opposition is expected to control key committees, such as the powerful finance committee that oversees the state budget, and fill strategic positions in the National Assembly.
“They can do anything Emmanuel Macron doesn’t like, that is, force his hand on some amendments, force him into debates,” said Mr Martigny.
The left-wing coalition and the National Rally both have enough lawmakers to issue a no-confidence vote, but they would need to muster an absolute majority in parliament to topple the government, which seems unlikely at the moment.
“Yes, we are asking everything an opposition group is entitled to, the finance committee of course, the vice presidency of course,” Ms Le Pen told reporters on Monday. “Will Emmanuel Macron be able to do what he wants? No, and all the better.”
Ms Le Pen, who was handily re-elected to her own seat in the National Assembly, managed to bring in a record number of lawmakers, now about 10 times as numerous as during Mr Macron’s previous term.
That will allow the party to officially form a so-called parliamentary faction, giving the National Rally more speaking time, as well as specific legislative powers such as the ability to create special committees, further entrenching the party in the political mainstream.
French political parties receive government funding based on things such as their election results and their number of seats in parliament, meaning the National Rally’s dramatic surge will also be a welcome financial windfall for a long-debt party.
The party is expected to receive close to €10 million, about $10.5 million, of government funding annually, compared to about €5 million during the previous term. That could be enough to finally pay off the €9.6 million remaining from a loan the National Rally took out with a Russian bank in 2014, sparking allegations that the party has close ties to the Kremlin. .