Some analysts believe Mr Putin risks a similar fate. “He will lose Russia because of Ukraine,” said Mr. Fishman, who has just finished a book about why democracy failed to gain a foothold in Russia after the collapse of the Soviet Union. Others are less emphatic, especially in the short term, noting popular signs of support for him in Russia. Yet they warn that Mr. Putin is playing a poker game in an unusual way with an unpredictable ending.
“This has been a major failure in Europe’s biggest land war since 1945, and that is a major failure,” said Clifford Kupchan, chairman of the Eurasia Group, a Washington political risk assessment firm. “I wouldn’t bet on a future in Russian political stability over a five-year period.”
While Mr Putin has publicly highlighted the security threat posed by a west-leaning Ukraine as a reason to go to war, others say his main concern is the potential political fallout from living next to a rambunctious democracy with decent economic prospects.
“Putin’s ultimate nightmare is a color revolution in Russia, and that is the lens through which he looks at people voting in Ukraine,” said Mr. kupchan. “Because it’s so close culturally, the threat of contagion as he perceives it is even greater.”
Mr Putin’s successes are many, especially his entire career spans from an obscure, mediocre intelligence agent — who was forced to drive a taxi to make ends meet after the collapse of the Soviet bloc — to one of the longest-running leaders to ever Kremlin.
But in Ukraine, Mr Putin, 69, has repeatedly made mistakes.
In 2004 he personally campaigned in the presidential election on behalf of his favorite candidate, Viktor F. Yanukovych, whom he twice congratulated on his victory. But widespread allegations of voter fraud sparked a nationalist response and the Orange Revolution, with street protests that eventually culminated in the election of Viktor A. Yushchenko (who was poisoned during the campaign) as president in a Western-oriented government.
