PARIS — With its immense forecourt that overlooks a breathtaking view of the Eiffel Tower, Paris’ Trocadéro Plaza provides an ideal setting to revive a flag campaign for the French presidency. Twice in the past decade, tens of thousands of people have gathered there to respond to appeals from embattled right-wing contenders seeking support.
A third attempt came on Sunday, when Éric Zemmour, the far-right pundit turned presidential candidate, staged a massive rally in the Trocadéro intended to halt his downfall in the polls, just two weeks before the first round of voting.
“I will fight to regain our identity, I will fight to regain our prosperity,” Mr Zemmour told tens of thousands of supporters who waved a sea of French flags under a blazing sun.
Sunday’s rally, one of the largest of this year’s elections, had all the hallmarks of a last-ditch effort to revive a campaign that started with a bang and then gradually ground to a halt as Mr Zemmour , 63, became mired in controversy and struggled to broaden his voter base.
And shake it up, he did. For months, through his active social and news media presence and frenzied rallies, he has shaped public debate by pushing it further to the right. He popularized the concept of the “great replacement” – a racist conspiracy theory that states that white Christian populations are being replaced by non-white immigrants – rewrote some of the worst episodes of France’s past and promoted divisive ideas such as a proposal to force their children to use “traditional” French names.
His meteoric rise in the polls – he briefly ranked second in mid-February – made him an unexpected second-place candidate and a serious threat to long-time leader of the far right, and Valérie Pécresse, the candidate of the mainstream right. .
But his ratings have gradually declined over a month, leaving him in fourth or fifth place after the war in Ukraine exposed two of his greatest flaws: his former sympathy for Russia’s President Vladimir V. Putin and his neglect. of the issue of economic inequalities .
In a 2018 interview, Mr Zemmour said he “would dream” of a French equivalent of Mr Putin, praising his attempt to restore the greatness of “an empire in decline” – words that have haunted him since Russia Ukraine invaded, seriously denting its credibility in international affairs. The candidate also caused a lot of protest after he first opposed the reception of Ukrainian war refugees. proverb it would “further destabilize France, which is already overwhelmed – I say overwhelmed – by immigration.”
But it is his inability to respond to the economic hardship created by the war that has most affected his status. Mr Zemmour has long championed liberal stances on the economy, which have done little to allay voters’ fears about rising energy prices. By contrast, his competitors, Ms Le Pen and Jean-Luc Mélenchon, a far-left candidate, have taken advantage of these concerns as they have long campaigned against economic inequality.
“He has paid so much attention to identity, immigration and security,” said Bruno Cautrès, a political scientist at the Center for Political Research at Sciences Po University in Paris, “that it has prevented him from embodying anything else in the eyes of the voters.”
In the fall, Mr. Zemmour had pinned his hopes on his ability to appeal to “the patriotic bourgeoisie and the working class.” But attendance at Sunday’s rally suggested he attracted mostly civilian voters.
“Sovereignty, grandeur, identity – this man thinks exactly like me,” said Benoît Bergeron, a 68-year-old Zemmour supporter in a tweed jacket, who had crossed the Seine from his posh neighborhood on the left bank to join the rally.
Mr Bergeron said the last time he took part in a demonstration was to support La Manif Pour Tous, a large movement opposing same-sex marriage that rocked France in 2013. Several supporters in the crowd said Mr Zemmour was the best representative of a conservative generation that emerged after that move.
Mr Cautrès said Mr Zemmour has a limited number of voters and scores particularly well with upper middle class segments, the elderly and conservative Catholics. “It’s not something that will propel you to the second round of the presidential election,” he said.
Against a background of declining polls, Mr. Zemmour sought to refocus the debate on immigration by sharpening his already polarizing stance. He warned that France will become a “Muslim country” by 2060 if current migration levels continue, he pledged last week to create a “Ministry of Remigration” and deport 100,000 “undesirable foreigners” every year, if elected.
But the proposal only caused more controversy and accentuated his image as an extreme politician. “He wasn’t campaigning to bring people together, but he was campaigning one that sowed and provoked more division every day,” said Robert Ménard, a French far-right mayor and a longtime acquaintance of Mr Zemmour’s who named Mrs. LePen.
At the meeting, Mr Zemmour’s speech was filled with populist undertones, with attacks on the news media and the elites, which he said were trying to undermine his candidacy. “Nothing and no one will steal this election from us,” he told the jubilant crowd.
The candidate’s radical coverage has also had the unexpected effect of purging the image of his direct far-right competitor, Ms Le Pen, a goal she has long pursued. Ms Le Pen is now taking 20 percent of the voting intentions, about twice as much as Mr Zemmour, and looks set to take second place to the incumbent president, President Emmanuel Macron.
“He normalized Marine Le Pen,” said Mr. Menard.
Perhaps the biggest impact of Mr Zemmour’s campaign will be its lasting effect on French politics, which has increasingly slid to the right. polls show that two-thirds of French people today are concerned about the ‘great replacement’. Depending on his performance in the first round of voting, Mr Zemmour could also force a full reshuffle from the French right. Several leaders of Ms Le Pen’s and Ms Pécresse’s parties have already joined his campaign.
Several supporters at the Trocadéro on Sunday said they did not trust the polls. “We are at a turning point,” says Stéphanie Vitry, company director, who was confident that Mr Zemmour would take the lead within two weeks. Otherwise, she said, “it’s the end of France.”
But some made no secret of the fact that they had largely given up hope that the far-right candidate would make it to a runoff.
“I must confess that I am not very optimistic,” said Oxana Herbeth, 23, a former Le Pen voter who had turned to Mr Zemmour, attracted by his tough stance on immigration and security.
It didn’t help that the Trocadéro was also symbolically associated with the demise of the French right. The last two presidential candidates of the center-right party Les Républicains held large rallies there before being defeated on election day.
“To collect justice where it has failed,” said Mr Ménard. “Strange idea.”