Votes will be cast across England on Thursday for local elections that will test the popularity of Prime Minister Rishi Sunak, who has stabilized British politics but whose government remains unpopular despite rising inflation, sluggish economic growth and labor unrest.
These votes do not affect the national parliament that gives Mr Sunak power: MPs face the public in general elections about every five years. The date is flexible, but not expected until next year.
But Thursday’s vote could provide important clues as to whether Mr Sunak, whose Conservative Party trails the opposition Labor Party in opinion polls, can turn things around.
At stake are seats for about 8,000 representatives in lower levels of government: municipalities that control services such as waste collection and building permits and levy taxes, within strict limits, on housing.
It is not an infallible guide to national sentiment. Turnout will be much lower than general elections and parochial issues such as planned housing projects may affect some races.
Still, this is arguably the largest public vote between now and the next general election, and it’s being fought in most areas likely to shape the next British government, with national issues often prominent in campaigning.
How is it doing nationally?
Recent surveys show Mr Sunak is shrinking Labour’s lead, although it remains at double digits. So he continues to hope for an unlikely fifth consecutive general election victory for the Conservatives.
Labor leader Keir Starmer needs a decent result to live up to his hopes of becoming the next prime minister. Despite his party coming close to power, he failed to enthuse voters.
The local elections will show how Labor’s lead and Mr Sunak’s poll progress translate into real votes.
Who will vote and where?
Elections on Thursday take place in much, but not all, of England. Scotland and Wales do not vote and Northern Ireland has local elections on May 18.
There are seats for representatives in 230 municipalities. The last time these seats were contested was in 2019, when parliament was deadlocked over Brexit and the two main parties were roughly equally unpopular. Many major cities vote (with the exception of London), but so do more rural areas.
Both major parties hold many of these seats, but the Conservatives are defending most – about 3,500 – and polls suggest they will lose many.
How much is the key question: the parties traditionally try to massage expectations. Conservative chairman Greg Hands has spoken of estimates that his party could lose 1,000 seats – a high number that some analysts believe he inflated in an attempt to portray lower losses as a triumph.
What are the results to watch?
Some of the most closely watched votes will take place in the so-called red wall areas of northern England and the Midlands. These deindustrialized regions used to be the heart of the Labor Party. Mr Sunak’s second predecessor, Boris Johnson, ran a pro-Brexit general election campaign in late 2019 that won many of them for the Conservatives.
With support for both the Conservatives and Brexit waning, Labor hopes to regain some former strongholds, for example in the north east of England in areas such as Middlesborough and Hartlepool.
In the South, analysts will be watching how the Conservatives perform in their traditional strongholds, affluent towns like Windsor and Maidenhead, now known as blue wall areas. Here estranged Mr. Johnson the anti-Brexit Conservative voters, allowing independent candidates and a centrist party, the Liberal Democrats, to gain. Mr. Sunak hopes his more technocratic style has stopped that slide.
Some results should appear overnight – the northern city of Sunderland, for example, prides itself on having all its votes counted just hours after polls close, at 10pm local time – but many places are starting to count the next day. There won’t be a reliable picture of the vote across England until later on Friday.
What is the likely impact on UK politics?
Earlier this year, with Mr Sunak’s leadership looking shaky, this election seemed like a potential trigger for a leadership crisis and a chance to bounce back for Mr Johnson, whose own fall was precipitated last year by local election losses.
Since then, Mr Sunak has brokered a post-Brexit deal with the European Union over Northern Ireland, stabilizing the economy following the upheavals under Liz Truss, Mr Johnson’s short-lived successor. Mr Johnson, on the other hand, is embroiled in an investigation into whether he lied to parliament about parties breaking lockdown during the pandemic.
So Mr. Sunak’s position seems safe for now. But a poor result could demoralize party workers, shake confidence in his prospects, embolden his critics and confirm expectations that he will delay calling general elections until the end of next year (due to take place by January 2025). A better-than-expected result for the Conservatives would strengthen Mr Sunak and increase the pressure on Mr Starmer.
When the Conservatives suffer, the Prime Minister has one thing important to him: timing. On Saturday, all the attention of the British media will be on the splendor of the coronation of King Charles III.
