Russia’s decision to resume natural gas flow through a vital pipeline on Thursday brought a moment of relief to Germany, which uses the fuel to power its key industries and heat half of its homes. But it’s unlikely to be much more than that.
Russia’s President Vladimir V. Putin has made it clear that he intends to use his country’s energy exports as a cudgel, and even a weapon, to punish and divide European leaders – loosen or tighten the taps as it pleases him. and his war goals in Ukraine.
He is counting on that uncertainty to impose high economic and political costs on European leaders. Those elected officials are under mounting pressure to cut energy prices and avoid gas rationing that could force factories and government offices to close and force people to turn down thermostats in the winter. Leaders in some countries, such as Spain and Greece, are already annoyed by a European Union plan to have each member state reduce its gas consumption, arguing that they are already much less dependent on Russia than Germany.
Many questions remain about the stability of the gas supply that has started flowing again on the pipeline, the Nord Stream 1, which directly connects Russia and Germany. But, analysts said, it’s clear that Europe, and Germany in particular, could be on edge for months as to whether there will be enough energy.
In the weeks leading up to the 10-day shutdown for scheduled maintenance that had just ended, Russia’s state energy monopoly Gazprom had already cut flow through the pipeline to 40 percent of its capacity. Analysts have warned that such levels will not be enough to prevent an energy crisis next winter.
“The resumed gas supplies from Russia via Nord Stream 1 are no reason to make everything clear,” said Siegfried Russwurm, President of the Federation of German Industries. “It remains to be seen whether gas will actually flow in the long term and in the contractually agreed quantity.”
He added: “Germany and Europe must not become the plaything of blackmailing Russian politics.”
On Wednesday, Ursula von der Leyen, President of the European Commission, who previously held senior positions in the German government, presented a proposal for members of the European Union to reduce their gas consumption by 15% to prepare for an uncertain and potentially unstable delivery before winter.
Before Russian troops invaded Ukraine in late February, Germany obtained 55 percent of its natural gas from Russia. Few EU countries come close to that level of dependence – a fact that European unity with Russia and energy policy is beginning to break.
Many Europeans already think that Germany, the bloc’s largest economy, is a wealthy neighbor that is not always eager to help weaker countries. That feature was most recently highlighted by the country’s stance on helping Greece, Spain and other countries using the euro when they were in financial difficulties about a decade ago.
Now some of those same countries are saying they are not willing to put more suffering on their businesses and people when energy prices rise to help Germany break out of its dependence on Russia.
Understanding the war between Russia and Ukraine better
Spain’s energy minister, Teresa Ribera, said on Thursday that her country would encourage, but not oblige, its citizens to reduce gas consumption. “Unlike other countries, we Spaniards have not lived above our means from an energy point of view,” she told El País newspaper, echoing the description used by some German ministers during the eurozone crisis.
The Greek government has also opposed the European Union’s call to cut gas consumption by 15 percent. Although Greece depends on Russia to supply 40 percent of its gas needs, supplies have not diminished.
Fueling such divisions is at the heart of Mr Putin’s strategy to cut off gas supplies through pipelines crossing Ukraine and Poland while simultaneously reducing the volume of natural gas flowing under the Baltic Sea through the 760-mile Nord Stream 1 pipeline. to limit flow.
“The entire European energy system is going through a crisis and even with the restart of Nord Stream 1 today, the region is in a tight spot,” a research firm Rystad Energy wrote in a market note on Thursday.
Mr Putin appears to be removing uncertainty about whether and for how long the gas will continue to flow into Germany to try to maximize its influence for as long as possible.
Hours before gas flow resumed on Thursday, Gazprom said in a statement that it had still not received documents from Siemens for a turbine sent to Canada for repair. The papers are needed to return the part, the company said, adding that the engine and other similar engines “had a direct impact on the operational safety of the Nord Stream pipeline”.
Robert Habeck, Germany’s economy minister and vice-chancellor, rejected a statement from Gazprom earlier in the day that the resumption of gas through the pipeline was evidence that the Russian company was a “guarantor” of energy security in Europe.
“The opposite is the case,” said Mr Habeck. “It turns out to be an uncertain factor.”
The German government has already activated the second of three steps of its gas emergency plan. Including swapping gas-fired power plants with coal-fired plants, releasing far more greenhouse gases into the atmosphere than burning gas. The third and final step would allow the government to ration supplies.
On Thursday, Mr Habeck announced additional measures to increase the country’s gas reserves, such as conservation incentives with more ambitious targets for its storage facilities and the reactivation of power plants that burn lignite – the dirtiest fossil fuel.
He said the government is also weighing strict limits on how people can use gas. For example, the government could prohibit people from heating private swimming pools with gas. When insisting on how such measures would be enforced, Mr Habeck drew a parallel with the ban on holding private gatherings during the initial lockdowns of the coronavirus pandemic, which were rarely enforced – unless neighbors alerted authorities.
“I don’t think the police will visit every homeowner. That is not our intention and not the country I want to live in,” said Mr Habeck. “But if it is noticed that someone is not going along with it, we will certainly investigate that.”
Whether Germans, who were among the Europeans most willing to follow public health rules in 2020, when the pandemic only started rising months later, will be willing to sacrifice their comforts in solidarity with Ukraine has yet to be fully determined. be put to the test.
The German government is facing what Janis Kluge, a Russian analyst at the German Institute for International and Security Affairs in Berlin, called “a very delicate balance” in the way it communicates with the public.
“On the one hand, they must mobilize everyone to save energy, save gas and tell everyone that there could be an energy shortage in the winter, while at the same time preventing this from turning into criticism of sanctions policies and support for Ukraine,” he said.
“This is exactly what Putin wants to achieve,” added Mr Kluge. “That when we make the next decision about arms supplies to Ukraine, somewhere in the back of our minds is the thought, well, what’s this going to do to our gas supplies?”
Berlin is struggling to buy more gas from the Netherlands, Norway and the United States. The government has earmarked 2.94 billion euros, about $3 billion, to lease four floating terminals in the hopes that they will be operational by midwinter to avert a crisis threatening a recession.
For years, Germany ignored warnings from its neighbors and allies that it was making itself vulnerable by becoming increasingly dependent on Russia for its energy needs.
“Germany will become completely dependent on Russian energy if it does not change course immediately,” President Donald J. Trump told the United Nations in 2018.
In response, the German delegation, including the country’s foreign minister, Heiko Maas, laughed.
