The Irish nationalist party, Sinn Fein, confirmed its status as the largest party in Northern Ireland in local election results counted over the weekend. But rather than breaking a political deadlock in the north, Sinn Fein’s striking gains could harden the sectarian divide that has complicated its fragile government for so long.
Sinn Fein, the party that has traditionally called for uniting the north with the Republic of Ireland, won 39 seats, for a total of 144 councilors overseeing services such as road repair and rubbish collection.
The Democratic Unionists, who support the remainder of the United Kingdom, managed to retain their existing total of 122 seats, a mediocre result which is nevertheless seen by some in their ranks as justifying the party’s refusal to join to a power-sharing government. since last year.
The combination of a growing Sinn Fein and a stalled but rebellious Democratic Unionist Party, or DUP, is giving neither side much room for compromise in restoring the Northern Ireland Assembly, which collapsed more than a year ago after the DUP retreated. withdrew in a dispute over the post-Brexit trade rules governing the territory. And British officials in London seem resigned to the continued paralysis, with some predicting there will be no movement towards a restored government until the autumn.
“The picture is one of unionism and nationalism, both tougher than ever,” said Katy Hayward, a professor of politics at Queen’s University Belfast. “That doesn’t bode well for the prospect of power-sharing, even if it gets rebooted.”
The chronic political dysfunction cast a long shadow over last month’s celebration of the 25th anniversary of the Good Friday Agreement. That treaty ended decades of sectarian violence in Northern Ireland, known as the Troubles, by creating a power-balancing government between the unionists, who favor remaining part of the United Kingdom, and the Nationalists, who favor a united Irish Republic.
But the government has been paralyzed for 15 months by unionists’ claims that the post-Brexit trade deals, known by the Northern Ireland Protocol, are driving a wedge between the north and the rest of the UK. They called on the British government to virtually reverse the protocol.
Britain’s Prime Minister Rishi Sunak struck a deal with the European Union in February that changed many of the rules, and he called on trade unionists to rejoin the meeting. But the Democratic Unionists have refused, arguing that the changes fall short of the root-and-branch overhaul they had demanded.
Their objection did nothing to prevent the agreement, known as the Windsor Framework, from being enforced. But it brought together the party’s key voters, who feel increasingly isolated in Northern Ireland, where demographic trends are turning against them. The Catholic population, which tends towards nationalism, has overtaken the Protestant population, which tends towards trade unionism.
While the Democratic Unionists trodden water in the election, the more moderate Ulster Unionist Party lost 21 seats, a painful setback that analysts say would discredit its less hostile approach to power-sharing. The Democratic Unionists also withstood a challenge from the even harsher Traditional Unionist Voice.
Similarly, the other major Irish nationalist party, the Social Democratic and Labor Party, which lacks Sinn Fein’s rudimentary ties to the Irish Republican Army’s violent resistance, lost 20 seats in the election. That leaves Sinn Fein as the overwhelming force among nationalist voters.
Sinn Fein emerged as the largest party in parliamentary elections for the first time last year, a victory that gave it the right to appoint a prime minister to the government, while the runner-up DUP appoints a deputy prime minister. Sinn Fein’s inability to do so because of the intransigence of Democratic Unionists has frustrated voters, who analysts say flocked to the polls in this election to voice their disapproval.
“Sinn Fein did better than anyone predicted, even Sinn Fein,” said Professor Hayward, noting that it was the first election where the overall nationalist vote outnumbered the overall union vote.
So far, Sinn Fein has campaigned heavily on kitchen table issues such as housing and healthcare, avoiding a direct call for Irish unification. But this week headlines in Irish nationalist newspapers called for the British government to clarify the terms under which an opinion poll on Irish unification would be conducted.
Under the terms of the Good Friday Agreement, Britain’s top official for Northern Ireland must call a referendum if there is clear evidence that people choose to break away from the United Kingdom and be part of a united Ireland. But there is no precise mechanism for measuring that sentiment.
The issue of unification is also likely to come up more often in the Republic of Ireland, where Sinn Fein easily outranks one of its rivals, Fine Gael and Fianna Fail, who currently rule in a unity coalition.
“They’re really on the rise now, both in the north and in the south,” says Diarmaid Ferriter, professor of modern Irish history at University College Dublin. “They’re not big enough to rule the South alone, but they’re moving in that direction.”
At this point, Sinn Fein is pushing to its advantage: Northern Ireland party leader Michelle O’Neill accepted an invitation from Buckingham Palace to attend King Charles III’s coronation, declaring on Twitter that the times were changed.
The trade unionists, on the other hand, find themselves in a familiar dead end: against the status quo, but unable to propose viable alternatives.
If they continue to reject the government, analysts say they will continue to bleed support from the wider electorate. But if they drop their opposition, DUP leaders fear they will be surrounded by more hardline union parties.
“There’s a bit of a sense of a time warp in Northern Ireland,” Professor Ferriter said. “The DUP is going to fail to renegotiate the deal. London is not even remotely interested and has already moved on. We can face a long, hot and boring summer.”
