The World Cup field is almost complete. On Friday, football teams will learn the answer to the critical question they and their fans want to know: who will they play against when the tournament kicks off in Qatar in November?
The World Cup draw – part gala, part pep rally, part math seminar – will see intriguing clashes of styles, spirited political clashes and, if past events are any guide, a few awkward moments.
But given the stakes of the draw, it is also one of the biggest events on the global sports calendar. Here’s a look at how it works.
When and where is the draw?
Friday at noon eastern time, at the Doha Exhibition and Convention Center in Qatar.
How can I watch?
Television broadcasts in the United States are on FS1 and Telemundo from 11:30 a.m. Eastern time. The draw will be streamed on FIFA.com and on NBC’s Peacock service in the United States. DailyExpertNews will also cover minute by minute.
How does it work?
Each team is assigned to one of four pots, based on the world ranking. One team from each pot will be placed in each of the eight groups of the opening round of the World Cup to ensure that the teams are divided by strength. There are also rules to keep them separate from regional rivals. For example, each group can have no more than two teams from Europe and no more than one from another continent.
The whole process can feel a bit methodical at times: First, a ball is drawn from one of the bowls with the names of each team in that pot. A second ball is then drawn to place the team in place, which must be done carefully to ensure that regional rivalry rules are followed.
Things can go very wrong, as the Champions League learned in December. It had announced its highly anticipated knockout round matchups before discovering its mistake, and had to stage an embarrassing rematch.
Who actually pulls the teams?
Soccer celebrities including Cafu (Brazil), Lothar Matthäus (Germany), Adel Ahmed Malalla (Qatar), Ali Daei (Iran), Bora Milutinovic (Serbia), Jay-Jay Okocha (Nigeria), Rabah Madjer (Algeria) and Tim Cahill ( Australia) will do the actual drawing of the balls from the bowls.
Who’s in pot 1?
Since the teams are ranked by world rankings, Pot 1 traditionally includes both the tournament favorites and the host nation. This means that in addition to Qatar, Brazil, Argentina, Belgium, France, England, Spain and Portugal are also in the pot this year.
What about the other three pots?
Pot 2 consists of the United States, Mexico, the Netherlands, Denmark, Germany, Switzerland, Croatia and Uruguay.
Pot 3 is Serbia, Poland, Senegal, Morocco, Tunisia, Iran, Japan and South Korea.
Pot 4, nominally the weakest teams (though maybe not this year), has Canada, Ghana, Cameroon, Ecuador and Saudi Arabia.
In that pot are also three teams that have not yet been determined. A European place is taken by Ukraine, Scotland or Wales. Another spot goes to the winner of an intercontinental play-off between Costa Rica and New Zealand, and the latter to one of Peru, Australia or the United Arab Emirates. All those places are determined by competitions in June.
Who is missing?
The main absentee is Italy, four-time World Cup winner and the reigning European champion. After missing out in 2018, Italy were eliminated for the second consecutive cycle when they lost a play-off semi-final against North Macedonia.
Who will want to draw or avoid teams?
Qatar, which has never qualified for the World Cup on sporting grounds, is by far the weakest team in pot 1, and any team in the other pots will be happy to land in its group. No one will especially want to play against Brazil, because it’s the number 1 in the world and because, hey, it’s Brazil. France is the defending champion.
Germany and the Netherlands seem to be the strongest teams in pot 2, and Serbia and Poland (with FIFA World Player of the Year Robert Lewandowski) could be dangerous from pot 3. Any team that can qualify from South America will be strong, and Ecuador in Pot 4 should scare many teams above it.
The same goes for Canada, which has a large pool of young talent and has quickly moved up to first place in the qualifying group, ahead of the more traditional powers the United States and Mexico.
Who will win the World Cup?
The favorites are Brazil, France, England and Spain, in that order, bookmakers say.
