KYIV, Ukraine – Just weeks ago, the Ukrainian military was relentlessly ravaged in the East, suffering heavy casualties as it slowly lost ground to the Russian advance. Western support appeared to be weakening amid skepticism that Ukraine could win a war of attrition, or that an influx of advanced weapons might turn the tide.
Despite everything, the Ukrainians’ message to the world did not change: we can win. Our strategy is working, albeit slowly. Keep the weapons coming.
No one can yet say whether Ukraine will prevail against an invading Russian army with superior numbers and weapons — or even what winning might look like. And Ukraine’s pleas for weapons have become such a constant refrain that some in the West have dismissed it as unrealistic background noise.
But this week, as Ukraine uses new long-range missile systems to destroy Russia’s infrastructure, Ukraine is again trying to argue for the world that it can defeat the Russians. And it cites evidence.
Officials point to successes such as a recent strike in the city of Nova Kakhovka, on the Dnipro River in southern Ukraine, when the Western-supplied High Mobility Artillery Rocket Systems, or HIMARS, hit a Russian munitions depot, leaving sparkling munitions in all parts of the country. directions like a deadly firecracker.
A few days ago, a Ukrainian artillery salvo struck an important bridge over the Dnipro that was a crucial crossing point for Russian supplies. Analysts say the strike predicts the start of a counter-offensive in the south, with a view to retaking the main city of Kherson.
“Russia can certainly be defeated and Ukraine has already shown how,” Defense Minister Oleksiy Reznikov said in a speech to the Atlantic Council on Tuesday.
Ukraine’s first lady, Olena Zelenska, personally delivered the message to Washington on Wednesday, rarely appearing before Congress through a foreign first husband. She pleaded for more weapons, saying that Russia was “destroying our country.”
On Thursday, Ukrainian officials said their forces had attacked more than 200 targets in the south using long-range missiles and artillery.
Understanding the war between Russia and Ukraine better
Despite Ukrainians’ newfound optimism, military analysts and Western officials say it is far too early to predict a turnaround in fortunes, and a long shot seems likely. And they warn against pinning too much hope on certain weapons amid the chaos and fluidity of a frontline that winds hundreds of miles from Kharkov in the north to Mykolaiv in the south.
“We are now achieving what we have not achieved before,” said Taras Chmut, the director of a non-governmental group that helps Ukrainian soldiers. “But there was no breakthrough at the front. There is no magic bullet, no magic wand, that will lead to victory tomorrow.”
Still, senior Ukrainian security officials showed optimism in interviews in Kiev this week.
“The sooner our partners provide us with weapons, the sooner we will end this war,” said Oleksiy Danilov, the head of Ukraine’s national security council. Ukraine does not intend to cede territory in a negotiated settlement, as some in the West have suggested, he said. “This is just a matter of who beats who.”
Ukraine received confirmation of its strategy from the United States on Wednesday, when the Pentagon pledged to provide four more HIMARS missile launchers and other high-performance weaponry, including two NASAM air defense systems, to help protect Ukraine from missile strikes. And Defense Secretary Lloyd J. Austin III gave a more optimistic view of Ukraine’s chances
“Our help is really making a difference on the ground,” Mr Austin told a meeting of Western defense officials. “Russia thinks it can take longer than Ukraine – and longer than us. But that’s just the latest in Russia’s series of miscalculations.”
Outside the battlefield, Ukraine has received renewed economic support from the European Union, which is proposing members to cut their gas consumption, fearing President Vladimir V. Putin will cut off Russian gas exports to them. On Thursday, Russia resumed gas flow via a vital pipeline to Germany, allaying fears of shortages for the time being.
The question of whether the long-range weapons now arriving in Ukraine can indeed push back the Russian military has become a crucial unknown in the war.
The United States and Europeans are wary of sending too much equipment before Ukrainian soldiers can be trained; analysts have pointed to signs that Ukraine is unable to assimilate weapons as smoothly as claimed.
Western officials also worry that Kiev, encouraged by the new firepower, could launch a counteroffensive too soon. And the Pentagon is concerned about the potential depletion of its own supplies in the coming months.
A month ago, it seemed that Russia had the upper hand. Ukrainian soldiers fought fierce, bloody and ultimately lost street battles and artillery duels in front of the cities of Sievierodonetsk and Lysychansk in eastern Ukraine. Some Western officials questioned the wisdom of such a scorched earth approach, saying Ukraine could not win a war of attrition.
Even President Volodymyr Zelensky, in a rare public musing on strategy, acknowledged the high cost of living trying to withstand the burden of the Russian military in the largely deserted, destroyed communities he called “dead cities,” and said between 60 and 100 Ukrainian soldiers died every day. Other Ukrainian officials are taking the toll higher.
The intensity of the fighting in the Donbas has waned since Sievierodonetsk fell and the Ukrainians withdrew from Lysychansk, suggesting that the Russians were either pausing to reposition themselves or that their capabilities were significantly reduced. Attention has shifted south and west to the area near the Dnipro River, where Ukraine has used long-range artillery supplied by Western countries, including the United States, to attack targets deeper behind the front lines.
As it ramps up attacks in the south, Ukraine faces another strategic dilemma: how to use its new deadly abilities: concentrate firepower to defend in the east or attack the occupied southern city of Kherson, which is controlled by the Russians but seen as vulnerable.
“Strategy is about choices, and choices come with compromises,” said Michael Kofman, the director of Russian studies at CNA, a research institute in Arlington, Virginia.
Western officials understand Ukraine’s desire to reclaim territory and achieve a victory that will give hope to the people. But some Western officials fear the military is not ready for a major counter-offensive in the Kherson region.
Ukraine replies that it has avoided hasty or risky maneuvers with the new weapons and will not intervene prematurely.
“We understand that we do not have enough resources now to conduct an active strategy,” said Brigadier General Oleksandr Kyrylenko, deputy chief of staff of the Ukrainian Armed Forces. “We work together with our partners. When we have enough, we will decide on future actions.”
Defeating the Russian military now remains within Kiev’s reach, but not indefinitely, as Western support leans on signs that Ukraine can liberate occupied territories, said Evelyn Farkas, director of the McCain Institute and former deputy assistant secretary of Defense for Russia, Ukraine and Eurasia.
“It’s not enough for them to stop the Russians,” said Mrs. Farkas. “If the Ukrainians fail to show success on the battlefield, and the more dramatic the better, US and European support for the war effort will weaken.”
Ukrainian officials have tempered expectations. In June, Kyrylo Budanov, the head of Ukraine’s military intelligence, said the August counterattacks would succeed. In July, Defense Minister Reznikov said he expected results by the end of the year.
For now, Ukrainian officials say in interviews that their troops demonstrate the ability to use the new weapons to make direct, painful hits on supply lines, troops and weapons depots.
In their possible counter-attack, they say they plan to blow up bridges and staging areas near the Dnipro River, cut off Russian supply lines and withdraw to troops on the west bank of the river, also in Kherson.
General Kyrylenko denied any tension with the United States over arms supplies or strategic choices over their use. “We are in full coordination with our partners,” he said. “Every weapon delivered protects the lives of our people, our women, our children, our population.”
To allay concerns that weapons could be lost or diverted, Mr. Zelensky Thursday unveiled a computer tracking system that keeps an eye on all donated weapons, called CODA.
Ukrainian officials also downplayed the difficulties of training soldiers to operate or maintain multiple new systems at once. Mr Danilov, the head of the Security Council, said Ukraine has 1 million soldiers, including those from police units and new recruits. With more soldiers than weapons, he said, training doesn’t distract troops from the front lines.
Standardizing the artillery arsenal would eventually be helpful, General Kyrylenko said.
“After the win we will solve it.”
Reporting contributed by: Marc Santora from London and Maria Varenikova from Kyiv.
