WASHINGTON — US officials are watching the French presidential election with trepidation, aware that Sunday’s vote could disrupt President Biden’s relations with Europe and reveal dangerous cracks in Western democracy.
France’s President Emmanuel Macron has been a crucial partner as Mr Biden restored relations with Europe, promoted democracy and forged a coalition in response to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. But Macron has a hard time with Marine Le Pen, a far-right challenger.
Ms. Le Pen is a populist agitator who, in the style of former President Donald J. Trump, despises the “globalists of the European Union,” criticizes NATO and views Russia’s President Vladimir V. Putin as an ally.
Her victory would complicate Biden’s attempt to isolate Russia and help Ukraine. But the very real prospect of a nationalist-leading France is also a reminder that the recent period of US-European solidarity on political and security issues like Russia and democracy can be deceptively fragile. Poland and Hungary, both NATO members, have taken authoritarian turns. And Germany’s surprisingly strong response to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine is already drawing domestic criticism.
“Getting a right-wing government to power in France would be a political earthquake,” said Charles A. Kupchan, a Georgetown professor who served as Europe’s director of the National Security Council during the Obama administration. “It would send a disturbing signal about the overall political health of the Western world.”
He added: “This is a moment of remarkable European unity and determination. But Le Pen’s election would certainly raise profound questions about the European project.”
Mr Macron was unable to win more than a slim majority of support against several opponents in the first round of voting on April 10. Mrs. Le Pen, who finished second, will be his opponent in Sunday’s second round. Polls show Mr Macron has a clear lead, but analysts say a Le Pen victory is perfectly plausible.
Ms. Le Pen, an immigration hard-liner and long-time leader of the populist right in France, has campaigned mainly on domestic issues, including the rising cost of living. But her positions on foreign policy have upset US officials. Last week, she renewed vows to scale back France’s leading role in NATO and pursue “strategic rapprochement” with Russia after the war with Ukraine ends. Ms. Le Pen also expressed concern that sending arms to Ukraine risks involving other countries in the war.
During a debate on Wednesday, Mr Macron reminded voters that Mrs Le Pen’s party had taken out a loan from a Russian bank. “You depend on Mr. Putin,” he told her.
Ms. Le Pen insisted she was “an absolutely and completely free woman” and said she sought foreign money after French banks refused to lend her. She also tried to refute allegations that she was sympathetic to Russia’s war goals, declaring her “absolute solidarity” with the Ukrainian people.
Ms. Le Pen has also pledged to curtail the influence of the European Union, which the Biden administration sees as an essential counterweight to Russia and China.
A senior US official noted that France has a recent history of right-wing candidates terrifying the political establishment before falling short. That was the case five years ago, when Mr Macron defeated Ms Le Pen in a runoff election.
But recent elections in the West have been prone to unrest, with analysts warning of complacency in Washington, especially given the commitment to the United States.
A sign of how much the Biden administration values its partnership with Macron was the slight sense of crisis after France withdrew its ambassador to Washington in September after unveiling a new initiative between the United States and Britain to provide Australia with nuclear submarines.
Macron’s government blamed the Biden administration for losing a lucrative submarine contract it had with Australia and was especially angry when it learned of the settlement via a leak to the news media. Biden officials expressed lavish support for France in a flurry of meetings and phone calls, and Mr Biden called the episode awkward. France was an “extremely, extremely valued” American partner, he said.
If Mrs. Le Pen would win, Mr Biden’s national security team would be forced to reassess that relationship.
What you need to know about the French presidential election
The most pressing question would be the status of economic sanctions against Russia, in which the European Union plays a crucial role. During the debate on Wednesday, Ms Le Pen said she supported sanctions against the Russian financial system and oligarchs, but opposed a ban on Russian oil and gas imports, and said the French people should not suffer.
“I can’t imagine that Marine Le Pen will see Vladimir Putin two weeks after being elected and talking about a major reset in relations,” said Martin Quencez, the deputy director of the Paris office of the German Marshall Fund.
“On the contrary, it would be more like Le Pen, as president, making it more difficult for the EU and the US to agree on a new stance – a new package of sanctions, and to agree within NATO what we have to do on the eastern flank,” he added.
For the Biden team, the ramifications of a Le Pen victory would go far beyond policy toward Russia and deal a blow to its project to strengthen democracy against authoritarianism worldwide, said Daniel Baer, the acting director of the Europe Program at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace.
“Biden sees this moment as a struggle between democracy and autocracy,” he said. “In the longer term, it would certainly be a setback to have one of the world’s most respected, advanced democracies elect an illiberal person.”
Mr Kupchan noted that Europe’s strong response to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine had allayed lingering concerns in Washington about autocracy in countries like Poland and Hungary, whose right-wing prime minister, Viktor Orban, was comfortably re-elected last month.
“Everything we worried about before February 24,” the date of the Russian invasion, “still lurks beneath the surface,” said Mr. kupchan. “And if Le Pen were to win, that would mean illiberalism – the politics of racism, of protectionism – would come to the surface.”
He added: “In some ways, all domestic trials and tribulations are in suspended animation. But they are still with us. And the French elections shed a bright light on that.”
