Britain’s Conservative Party, which feared losing all three of this week’s parliamentary by-elections, managed to clinch victory in one of them. But the Conservatives lost the other two seats by wide margins, meaning spelling problems ahead of the approaching general election. Here are four mood takeaways.
Sunak is down but not out
Hampered by Britain’s faltering economy and successive scandals in his party, Prime Minister Rishi Sunak was seen as the leader of a zombie government, destined to be defeated by the opposition Labor party. The election result does not change that negative prognosis, but the unexpected victory of the Conservatives in Uxbridge and South Ruislip, formerly represented by Boris Johnson, has stripped Labor of its invincible veneer.
Mr Sunak also received economic relief this week, announcing that inflation, while still high, had fallen more than expected in June. That opens the door for the prime minister to achieve one of his administration’s key goals: to halve inflation by the end of this year.
On a surprisingly upbeat visit to a café in Uxbridge on Friday, Mr Sunak told Sky News: “The message I take with me is that we need to double down, stick to our plan and deliver to people.” The results, he said, showed that “when faced with the actual reality of the Labor Party, when an actual choice on a substantive issue is at stake, people vote Conservative.”
That is probably Mr Sunak’s blueprint for the elections, which he must hold by January 2025. He reckons the economy will recover enough for the Conservatives to take credit for guiding Britain through a difficult period and convincing voters that switching to Labor is too much of a risk.
Tactical voting threatens the Tories
In Britain’s political system, an MP is elected to represent one of 650 constituencies, and matches are fought on a winner-takes-all basis. The candidate with the most votes becomes a legislator, while the ballots of those who favored someone else count for nothing.
So voters often face a dilemma: should they vote for the person they really want, even if they have no real chance of winning, or should they choose someone better placed to defeat the candidate they dislike the most? Tactical voters are making the second of those two choices and, as at other times in the past, this trend now threatens to wreak havoc on an unpopular Conservative party.
In Somerton and Frome, in south west England, the centrist Liberal Democrats were victorious, but not just because traditional Conservative supporters switched to them. In the words of the Liberal Democrat leader, Ed Davey, Labor supporters “also lent us their support” by voting for Sarah Dyke to defeat the Tory candidate. The same seems to have happened in reverse in Selby and Ainsty, in northern England, where Labor won.
Tactical voting only really works for the opposition parties when it is clear which of them is the best place to beat the Conservatives. But the trend is ominous for Mr Sunak, as after a period of acute unpopularity, the Liberal Democrats are recovering, have positioned themselves as fierce opponents of the Tories, and they hope to seize some of the Tory heartlands in southern England.
The signs of this by-election are that when the next general election comes around, Mr Sunak may face some real electoral pressure.
Uxbridge shows that all politics is local
Winning narrow victories in Uxbridge and South Ruislip, Mr. Sunak their courage as campaigners in part of the London suburbs, despite their woes on the national scene.
Their winning candidate, Steve Tuckwell, is a former postal worker who used to stack supermarket shelves in his youth. His campaign largely disowned Mr Johnson, the scandal-prone former prime minister, who held the seat until his resignation from parliament prompted the contest to replace him.
But as Mr Tuckwell acknowledged, it was the extension to the London suburbs, including Uxbridge, of an ultra-low emission zone, or ULEZ, that sparked support for the Tories. Under the scheme, those driving older, more polluting cars would have to pay £12.50, or $16, per day for using them – a fee that is obviously unpopular with owners of obsolete vehicles.
Already active in central London, the zone expansion was the brainchild of the city’s Labor mayor, Sadiq Khan, and the Conservatives positioned themselves as the main opponents. Mr Khan argues the zone is essential to improve poor air quality, which is known to have contributed to at least one death in London. But at a time of economic stress, the vote in Uxbridge could fuel a wider debate about who pays the costs of the transition to a greener economy.
Labour’s hopeful barometer
Of the three races, the landmark result at Selby and Ainsty is the best measure of Britain’s long-term political direction. The Conservatives have controlled the North Yorkshire district since it was created in 2010, a period coinciding with the party’s government. To win there, Labor had to overthrow the largest Conservative majority since World War II in a by-election.
Selby and Ainsty, a rural region with a heritage of coal mining, are not a classic ‘red wall’ or Labor stronghold, a district of the kind that the party lost in large numbers to the Conservatives in the 2019 general election. But Labor’s victory suggests the party can fight to regain lost seats in other districts in the Midlands and the north of England, which are crucial to winning a parliamentary majority.
The Labor victory is also resonant for symbolic reasons: Selby and Ainsty are not far south of Mr Sunak’s district in North Yorkshire. The new Labor MP, Keir Mather, 25, has the same first name as the party leader, Keir Starmer, who was in turn named after Labour’s first parliamentary leader, Keir Hardie.
On a triumphant visit to the precinct, Mr. Starmer gestured to the young victor and quipped, “This is the first time I’ve ever been able to say, ‘Well done, Keir’.”
