PARIS – Weeks after President Emmanuel Macron’s re-election, voters in France return to the polls on Sunday to choose their parliamentary representatives, elections that will determine whether Macron’s bills pass or stumble through the legislature during his second term.
All 577 seats are up for grabs in the National Assembly, France’s lower and more powerful parliament building, currently controlled by Macron’s party and its allies. Most polls predict that it will remain that way to some degree.
The modern presidential and parliamentary elections in France take place just months apart, in the same five-year cycle. Over the past two decades, voters have always given strong parliamentary support to their newly elected president, and polls and experts suggest this would be a likely outcome for Mr Macron again this time around.
His greatest challenge comes from a revived alliance of France’s left-wing forces, who have taken the rare step to put aside personal squabbles and ideological differences to form a united front. Jean-Luc Mélenchon, the leader of the far-left France Unbowed party, the dominant force in that alliance, hopes it can win a narrow victory and force Mr Macron to appoint him prime minister.
But so far, according to recent polls, voters have been more concerned about rising inflation than the campaign, and polls say they expect record-low turnout.
Here’s an introduction to the elections, which will be held in two rounds, on Sunday and June 19.
What’s at stake?
Presidents hold the most powerful political office in France, with broad powers to rule by decree. But they need Parliament, and especially the National Assembly, to achieve most of their larger domestic policy goals, push through spending bills or change the constitution.
Emmanuel Macron’s Second Term as President of France
With the re-election of Emmanuel Macron, French voters preferred his promise of stability to the temptation of an extremist pendulum.
Some of Macron’s prominent campaign promises, such as his vow to raise the statutory retirement age, require legislation. His new administration also wants to tackle the effects of inflation and require lawmakers to vote on measures such as food subsidies.
The main players in the elections are:
Ensemble, a centrist coalition that includes La République en Marche, the party Mr Macron founded and won in 2017 with a wave of political newcomers as candidates.
La Nouvelle Union Populaire Écologique et Sociale, better known by its acronym NUPES, is a left-wing alliance brought together by Mr Mélenchon’s French Unbowed party, which includes the socialist, green and communist parties.
A group of traditional right-wing parties led by Les Républicains, the mainstream conservatives.
Marine Le Pen’s far-right National Rally party, which was defeated by Mr Macron in April’s presidential election.
The latest polls suggest Ensemble and NUPES are neck and neck, at about 25 to 28 percent each. The National Rally is expected to receive about 20 to 21 percent of the vote, with Les Républicains about 10 to 11 percent. Smaller groups, including the party of Éric Zemmour, a far-right pundit who ran for president, are probing in the single numbers.
If only Macron’s party achieves an absolute majority of seats – 289 – he will have relatively free rein to carry out his legislative agenda. A repeat of the current situation, in which his party and its allies have an absolute majority, would make him dependent on the coalition to pass some legislation. But if his party and its allies lose too much ground, they could be forced to reach out to opposing party lawmakers about certain bills. And if NUPES can gain control of parliament, it would force Mr Macron to appoint a new prime minister and cabinet, potentially blocking much of his agenda.
How do the elections work?
France’s 577 constituencies cover the mainland, overseas departments and territories, as well as French citizens living abroad. Each district has one seat. More than 6,200 candidates are applying for a national position.
Any number of candidates can participate in the first round in any district, but there are specific barriers to reaching the second round. While in most cases the second round will feature the top two voters, it can sometimes be three or even four. Whoever wins the most votes in that second round wins the race. (Under certain conditions, a candidate who gets more than 50 percent of the vote in the first round wins outright.)
The two-round system usually provides stable majorities that French governments can rely on, but that comes with a price. The composition of the National Assembly does not always accurately reflect the broader political landscape of the country and tends to lean towards larger parties. The smaller ones complain that their voters are not getting the representation they deserve, fueling discontent with the political system.
French presidential candidates, including Mr Macron, have repeatedly floated the idea of overcoming that discrepancy by introducing a dose of proportional representation for parliamentary elections. But during Mr Macron’s first term, there was never a bill on that issue, and it is unclear whether he will pursue the idea during his second term.
What does the National Assembly do?
The National Assembly and the Senate – currently controlled by the right – are the two houses of parliament in France. Both are based in Paris and play an important role in drafting legislative and voting laws. But only the National Assembly is directly elected by the people and has more leeway to legislate and challenge the executive.
The National Assembly usually has the last word if the two houses disagree on a bill, and it is the only house that can topple a French cabinet on a vote of no confidence. It has some privileges over important legislation, such as expenses or social security bills.
Lawmakers can question cabinet members; they can also establish committees of inquiry and hold hearings, although their powers and scope of their investigations are more limited than congressional investigations in the United States.
Unless the president dissolves the National Assembly and calls for new elections — a move rarely attempted — the lawmakers will be in office for five years.
What is next?
The last polls will close at 8pm on Election Day, the day the French news media will work with pollsters to publish the first expected results based on preliminary counts. The races will be called district by district as the evening progresses.
Those early results will give an idea of the position of each side and the direction each race could take, but the final composition of the National Assembly will only become clear after the second rounds.
Several ministers are taking part in the elections, including Élisabeth Borne, the prime minister. Their races will be closely watched as a loss of one or more of them would be seen as a rebuke from Mr Macron, who has warned those not elected will leave his cabinet.
