As part of his surprise turnaround that unblocked Sweden’s bid for NATO membership Monday night, Turkey’s President Recep Tayyip Erdogan appears to have vague promises to recharge your batteries his country’s complicated relationship with the European Union.
At a meeting on Monday, Mr Erdogan and Charles Michel, the president of the European Council, agreed to focus on migration and refugees, economic ties and the prospect of opening up visa-free travel to the EU for Turks, a senior citizen said. EU official . The official, who spoke to brief reporters on condition of anonymity, described the meeting as a change to a more positive tone.
Turkey is an official candidate for membership of the European Union, a status it has held for two decades. The process was practically frozen in 2018, cementing a sort of frenemy status between the bloc and its neighbor to the east. The two are closely related, but the relationship between them is strained.
Most EU countries view Turkey’s bid to join the EU as dead, but have not pushed to make it official out of concerns that it would further alienate Mr Erdogan and make improvements in key policy areas such as energy cooperation and migration more difficult . Here’s a look at the history of Turkey’s bid for the EU and where it stands today.
Why is Turkey’s candidacy frozen?
Turkey applied to join the then smaller European Union in 1987; it was granted candidate status in 1999 and began accession negotiations in 2005. EU accession talks normally take a long time, averaging about 10 years. In the case of Turkey, they have officially been at it for 18 years, although they have been suspended for nearly five years.
Negotiations are organized into chapters – or policy areas – in which the candidate country tries to comply with EU laws and standards, usually through major revisions.
Membership talks depend on a set of principles, known as the Copenhagen political criteria, such as respect for human rights, a well-functioning democracy and institutions, and the rule of law guaranteed by free and independent courts. These are seen as the cornerstones of club membership.
The EU suspended accession negotiations with Turkey in 2018, citing the country’s lack of progress on human rights and the rule of law. That came after Erdogan’s leadership took an even more authoritarian turn in response to a failed coup in 2016 that saw thousands of civil servants fired and hundreds of organizations shut down.
So can Turkey’s EU bid be resurrected?
EU diplomats believe it is very unlikely that Turkey will join the EU soon, or ever will, saying the country’s rule of law and respect for human rights standards have deteriorated in recent years.
Turkey’s hostile relations with its neighbors Greece and Cyprus, both EU members, are another major problem. While both countries are NATO members, Turkish officials, including Mr Erdogan himself, often question their common borders and say Turkey is entitled to more territory, much to Greece’s outrage.
Turkey also maintains control and troops in the northern part of the island of Cyprus — which it invaded in 1974, claiming it intervened to protect a Turkish-speaking minority. The international community does not recognize its administration there, and Turkey does not recognize the Republic of Cyprus, a member of the EU and the United Nations that governs the southern two-thirds of the island.
Attempts to resolve the Cyprus problem, one of the world’s most intractable frozen conflicts, have stalled after several attempts. In order to be admitted to the EU, or even to make real progress in that direction, Turkey would probably have to recognize the Republic of Cyprus.
But what is also clear is that the EU no longer wants to expand to the east. Allowing Turkey to join would mean including a large Muslim country in the bloc and extending its external borders to Syria, Iran and Iraq.
What could happen next?
Experts say that the current framework of the EU-Turkey relationship, which still focuses on Turkey’s candidacy, creates false expectations and leaves both sides in the lurch, arguing that it would be better to have a new kind of special relationship between the bloc and its neighbour. .
But the EU and Turkey have their reasons for sticking to the existing framework. EU diplomats who see Turkey as key to managing migration and other major policy challenges believe that even if the process never leads to full accession, it could be a useful path, binding Ankara to Brussels and providing a structure for conversations.
If only they would talk!
What will happen next is renewed engagement, especially in terms of public communication, between the bloc and Turkey. The EU will prepare a report on the future of the relationship, the senior EU official said.
The officials said there were no illusions about how difficult some parts of the bloc’s relationship with Turkey are, but the meeting still felt like a moment to reset the tone to a more positive one.
A change of direction in EU-Turkey relations would help Mr Erdogan say he has improved Turkey’s relations with the EU, while at the same time enabling the EU to support the NATO unit by averting Sweden’s accession. help, which would help its main goal of supporting Ukraine against Russian aggression.
