War between Israel and Gaza: Ian Bremmer said the Israeli ground invasion of Gaza is inevitable
New Delhi:
Renowned political scientist and founder of the Eurasia Group, Ian Beerder, said today that the ongoing war between Israel and Gaza is likely to worsen with the opening of more fronts.
In an exclusive interview, Ian Bremmer told NDTV that the war could spark a wider, more devastating conflict in the Middle East if Iran gets directly involved in the fighting.
“It is entirely possible that Hezbollah, which is much more militarily capable and backed by Iran, could become directly involved in the fighting,” he said.
He also said that Israel’s ground invasion of Gaza – which is inevitable – will have enormous global consequences.
“A ground war is going to happen. It’s a bad idea for many reasons. It will kill a huge number of Palestinian civilians, it will be carried out at short notice or without assistance for the Palestinians to evacuate. It will lead to resistance around the world,” he said.
Asked whether he expects an expansion of the Israeli-Palestinian conflict into a regional conflict, Mr. Bremmer said it is not about World War III, but that the idea of it being confined within Gaza is “far too imaginary.”
“It’s not World War III. The Russians and the Chinese will not get directly involved in this war. But the idea that the war remains within Gaza is far too imaginary,” he said.
“We have already seen drone strikes against US military bases and equipment in the region. We have seen some unrest on Israel’s northern border with Hezbollah attacks. Some small raids could also become bigger. We have seen dozens of Palestinians killed in the West Bank. Israeli settlers are not yet involved in that violence, but it could easily spread,” said the founder of the Eurasia Group.
Speaking about the economic impact of the war between Israel and Gaza, Mr Beerder said it is “negligible” unless Iran gets involved. “The Russian invasion of Ukraine had enormous economic consequences. In the case of Israel, it is a small economy,” he said.
If Iran becomes directly involved in the war, it will have broader implications, he said. “Attacks on Iran could likely lead to a major oil crisis that will push the world into recession,” Beerder said.
He said the conflict, the second major foreign policy crisis for the Biden administration, is a huge distraction for the US. This is sort of pinning Joe Biden down to leaders he personally doesn’t like or trust – Volodymyr Zelensky and Benjamin Netanyahu.
Israel has vowed to destroy Hamas after the Palestinian group launched an unprecedented attack from the Gaza Strip on October 7, killing at least 1,400 people, mostly civilians who were shot, maimed or burned.
In response, Israeli bombers have leveled entire city blocks in Gaza in preparation for a ground invasion that is said to take place soon. The Hamas-led Health Ministry said 4,137 Palestinians, mostly civilians, were killed in the attack.
