New Delhi:
The Quad, a strategic security grouping created to maintain peace, stability and freedom of navigation in the Indo-Pacific region, is facing a major challenge from an unofficial, unnamed alliance led by China, especially after the chronology of the events of the past few months. in the run-up to and after the last Quad Summit in the United States.
The Quad, short for Quadrilateral, is a group consisting of India, the United States, Japan and Australia. The grouping was formed with the aim of maintaining safety and freedom of navigation in the Indian Ocean and the Pacific Ocean. The Quad was first formed in 2007 but ceased to exist in 2008 following Australia's withdrawal. The group was re-established in 2017 by Prime Minister Narendra Modi, then US President Donald Trump, Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe and Australian Prime Minister Malcolm Turnbull.
China, which views the group as a threat to its expansionist policies in the South China Sea, Indian Ocean and Pacific Oceans, is now leading an unofficial, unnamed group to counter the Quad. The group consists of China, Russia, Iran and North Korea.
Russia, which faces isolation from the West, especially the United States and most of Europe, due to the war in Ukraine, finds itself in a situation where it is highly dependent on China, both economically and in terms of the supply of selected weapons. Iran and North Korea are also under heavy US sanctions and are largely dependent on China.
Beijing, which wants to replace the United States as the leading world power, is pursuing its assertive, aggressive and expansionist policies by taking advantage of the allies that depend on it.
Here is the chronology of provocative events led by China to send a message to the Quad:
MESSAGE TO THE UNITED STATES
China launched an intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) from its territory deep in the Pacific Ocean on September 25, its first such test since 1980. The launch came days after the annual Quad Leaders' Summit was held in Delaware in the US. The ICBM can reportedly target any location in the US in less than 30 minutes.
Beijing has downplayed the incident and called the test – a first in 44 years – “routine”.
China's Ministry of National Defense (MND) said: “The People's Liberation Army Rocket Force (PLARF) launched an ICBM with a dummy warhead into the high seas in the Pacific Ocean at 8:44 a.m. on September 25, and the missile fell into the expected sea areas. This test launch is a routine measure in our annual training plan and is in accordance with international law and practice, and is not directed against any country or target.”
The missile hit the desired target near the exclusive economic zone of French Polynesia, not far from the Marquesas Islands. China sent its tracking ship Yuan Wang 5 to the landing site to collect data. New Zealand described the ICBM test as an “unwelcome and worrying development”. The U.S. Air Force also deployed an RC-135S Cobra Ball aircraft about halfway along the flight path to collect optical and electronic data about the missile and its warhead.
The ICBM's desired target was 12,000 km from the launch site. The distance between China's Hainan Island and Los Angeles in the US is only 12,100 km. China effectively demonstrated its ability to reach the US with these types of nuclear weapons in less than 30 minutes. Beijing's newer DF-41 has an even greater range.
This latest provocative test came at a time of heightened tensions with neighboring countries such as Japan, the Philippines and Taiwan.
Taiwan's Ministry of Foreign Affairs immediately tweeted: “The PLA's first ICBM launch in 44 years exposes the regime's expansionist ambitions and malign character. Taiwan strongly condemns the People's Republic of China for its reckless actions that destabilize the region and urges China to exercise restraint and stop all actions that undermine the global economy. efforts for peace.” This was more than a routine test. China sent a signal, an intimidating one at that, Teipei said.
China has a 2009 agreement with Russia under which both sides notify each other of ballistic missile launches, but so far China has rejected all such suggestions for a similar mechanism with the US.
MESSAGE TO JAPAN
On September 21 – the day the Quad Summit was held in the US – China began joint naval exercises in the Sea of Japan. The Russian Pacific Fleet had said: “A joint detachment of warships of the Pacific Fleet and the Chinese Navy took off from Vladivostok to conduct the joint Russian-Chinese 'Beibu/Interaction – 2024' naval exercise,” adding that the naval exercises will also include anti-war exercises. aircraft and anti-submarine weapons.
Two days after the joint naval exercise near Japan, Tokyo protested a major provocation from Moscow when a Russian patrol plane entered Japanese airspace – not once, not twice, but three times. Japan's Defense Minister Minoru Kihara had said: “We confirmed today that a Russian Il-38 patrol aircraft has violated our airspace over our territorial waters north of Rebun Island, Hokkaido, three times.”
Japan had deployed its F-35 fighter jets to warn the Russian army. (Photo: Lockheed Martin)
Japan had deployed its F-15 and F-35 fighter jets to warn the Russian military by radio during the first two airspace intrusions. Finally, the Japanese Air Force jets had to resort to firing flares when the third raid took place. This even prompted Tokyo to call Moscow through diplomatic channels to ensure that such a provocation would not happen again. The Russian government has not commented on the airstrikes.
A similar incident occurred a month earlier, in August, when Japan had to fly out its air force fighter jets when Chinese military aircraft entered its airspace. Tokyo had warned Beijing, calling it a “serious violation of our sovereignty.”
The joint naval exercise between China and Russia was also the “largest of its kind in three decades”, Vladimir Putin had said.
In the wake of these Chinese-backed provocations, Japan, Australia and New Zealand sent a strong message to Beijing as their naval vessels transited the Taiwan Strait. JS Sazanamis, a Japan Maritime Self-Defense Force destroyer and a naval vessel from Australia and New Zealand – HMAS Sydney (DDG 42) and HMNZS Endeavor (A11) – transited the Taiwan Strait. This was the first such incident ever to occur across Japan, Australia and New Zealand.
China reportedly sent five of its naval vessels to the vicinity of the Australian and New Zealand ships and conducted surveillance activities.
Regarding the incident by Japan, Beijing issued a statement through the spokesperson of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, saying: “China's response to the passage of the Japanese maritime SDF vessel through the Taiwan Strait: the Taiwan issue is a red line that should not be crossed. Japan must do that. fulfill his promise and be careful in this matter, and ensure that China-Japan relations and cross-Strait peace are not disturbed.”
CHALLENGE TO FREEDOM OF NAVIGATION IN THE INDIAN OCEAN
China, Russia and Iran have also increased their cooperation and activities in West Asia (Middle East). Last year, Beijing brokered a deal between Saudi Arabia and Iran, underscoring the country's presence in the Middle East. Both Beijing and Moscow have also condemned the killing of Iran-backed Hezbollah chief Hassan Nasrallah, in a stand against Israel.
Russia and Iran are also reportedly negotiating terms for arming Houthis in Yemen, who are targeting merchant ships in and around the Red Sea and Gulf of Aden. However, according to reports, they are not targeting Chinese and Russian ships. As attacks by Houthis have increased, this poses a huge threat to freedom of navigation in the Indian Ocean.
Flames and smoke rise from an oil tanker that was attacked by Iran-backed Houthis in the Red Sea. (Photo: Reuters)
Iranian-backed and Yemen-based Houthi terrorists have been attacking and hijacking ships in the region for months, impacting global trade and maritime operations. These incidents are increasing amid Israel's ongoing war against Hamas and Hezbollah, both backed by Iran.
According to the U.S. Maritime Administration, Houthis have carried out more than 50 attacks on shipping, causing casualties, ship seizures and disruptions to global trade routes. The campaign has forced shipping companies to find alternative routes, affecting about 12 percent of global trade that passes through the Red Sea.
THE THREAT TO NORTH KOREA
In recent months, North Korea, which is reportedly backed by Beijing, has fired multiple ballistic missiles at the US, Japan and South Korea.
The projectiles had probably fallen into the sea. The development comes in the wake of North Korean leader Kim Jong Un inspecting a uranium enrichment plant in mid-September.
The U.S. Indo-Pacific Command said in a statement that it is aware of Pyongyang's ballistic missile launches and is consulting closely with South Korea and Japan, as well as other regional allies and partners.
(Photo credit: Reuters)
“The United States condemns these actions and calls on the Democratic People's Republic of Korea to refrain from further unlawful and destabilizing acts. While we have determined that this event does not pose an immediate threat to U.S. personnel, U.S. territory, or to our allies, we continue to monitor the situation,” the statement said.
A DailyExpertNews report said that US President Joe Biden had approved a secret document in March this year directing US forces to prepare for possible coordinated nuclear confrontations with Russia, China and North Korea.
Amid these developments, Japanese Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba has said Japan is facing the “most serious” regional security situation in the post-World War II era. “The security situation surrounding our country is the most serious since the end of the Second World War,” he said in his first speech as prime minister last month.
