Paris:
There is a very small chance that an asteroid who can eliminate an entire city can hit the earth in less than eight years. But even if this asteroid goes our way, humanity can now defend itself against such a threat, experts say.
The chance that the recently discovered asteroid will hit the earth on December 22, 2032 has now risen to 3.1 percent, NASA said on Tuesday the highest chance of an impact due to such a large space stone in modern prediction.
“Don't Panic,” Richard Moissl, head of the Planetary Defense Office of the European Space Agency, told AFP.
As astronomers collect more data, the chance of a direct hit is generally expected to shoot up before she quickly drops to zero.
Even in the unlikely event that the probability continues to rise to 100 percent, “we are not defenseless,” Moissl emphasized.
Here are some ways in which humanity can bend or destroy the asteroid as 2024 -R4.
Save a spacecraft in it
Only one planetary defense strategy has been tried out on a real asteroid.
In 2022, NASA's Double Asteroid Redirection Test (DART) deliberately hit a spacecraft in the 160-meter wide Dimorfos-Astoid, which successfully changed his job around a larger space stone.
An advantage of this plan is that we could touch the asteroid from 2024 JR4 with multiple spacecraft, with which we observe how each changed his process, Bruce Betts, chief scientist of the non -profit planetary society, told AFP.
The asteroid discovered in December is estimated at 40-90 meters wide, half of the size of Dimorfos.
“You have to make sure you don't exaggerate,” warned Moissl.
If the spacecraft were partially destroying the asteroid, it could send “pieces away” that still go to earth, he said.
If this kind of accident changed the final impact location on earth – for example “from Paris to Moscow” – that would probably cause major problems, Betts added.
Tractor, ion rays, paint
A separate idea that is called a gravitational tractor includes a large spacecraft that flies up near the asteroid and – without touching it – use its gravity pull to pull it off the earth.
Another non-contact plan would place a spacecraft in the vicinity of the asteroid armed with bow screws that would exercise a “constant stream of ions” to push the asteroid out of the course, Moissl said.
Scientists have also considered spraying on one side of the asteroid white, which increases reflectivity, so that it slowly changes from the process.
These more subtle strategies should reach the asteroid earlier than for some more serious options.
The nuclear option
Or we can also just blow it up with a nuclear bomb.
Instead of drilling a nuclear weapon deep in an asteroid-as depicted in the SCI-Fi action film “Armageddon” from 1998-this probably explodes a bomb in the neighborhood.
Last year American researchers discovered this theory on a marble mock asteroid in the laboratory that the X -rays of a nuclear explosion would evaporate its surface and shoot it in the opposite direction.
Even the ethical, political and legal issues to steer nuclear weapons in space is considered more a final level plan for kilometers-wide asteroids such as those who killed the dinosaurs.
And again, there is a risk that a nuclear explosion can still leave unpredictable chunks to the earth.
Lasers
Along less dangerous but similar lines is another idea to shoot laser beams from a spacecraft to evaporate and push the side of an asteroid.
Lab experiments suggest that this plan is viable, but it is not one of the “top techniques” that is being viewed, Betts said.
If everything else fails
If necessary, bending this asteroid is “feasible, but it depends on the speed with which we move like a planet,” said Moissl.
While experts and space agencies will make their recommendations, the decision about tackling the asteroid will ultimately be made by world leaders.
If everything else fails, we will have a good idea of the asteroid's strike zone – who is not a “planet murderer” and could at most threat a city, Moissl said.
This means that preparing impact, possibly including evacuation if the area is populated, will be the last line of defense.
“Seven and a half years is a long time to prepare,” said Moissl, and again emphasized that there is a chance of about 97 percent that the asteroid will miss the earth.
(Except for the headline, this story was not edited by Our staff and has been published from a syndicated feed.)
