Joe Biden has spent the past week in frenzied diplomacy to prevent the war between Israel and Hamas from spiraling
Washington:
President Joe Biden has spent the past week engaged in frenzied diplomacy to prevent the war between Israel and Hamas from turning into a broader conflict. But if these efforts fail, the US response may depend on the blunt force of the US military.
The Pentagon has moved the aircraft carrier Gerald R. Ford and its battle group to the eastern Mediterranean, and Dwight D. Eisenhower’s strike group is on its way. Each room is filled with F/A-18 Super Hornet fighter jets and other advanced aircraft. In addition, 2,000 Marines have become extra alert to possible mobilization.
For now, the administration says the move is about warning Hezbollah in Lebanon and other Iranian allies not to get involved. The U.S. has sent backchannel messages through countries such as Qatar to suggest to Iran that it is serious about using force if necessary, according to a U.S. official who discussed the sensitive situation on condition of anonymity.
“What the aircraft carriers and the flying squadrons give the president are options,” said retired Gen. Frank McKenzie, who led U.S. forces in the Middle East until 2022. “We know that Iran is watching our force levels and is deterred by an additional posture in the theater of war. ”
The stakes are high and have only increased since the October 7 attack on Israel by Hamas, a group designated as terrorist by the US and European Union. The conflict has already cost thousands of Israeli and Palestinian lives, fueling tensions across the region and raising the possibility that the conflict will escalate. Israel and Hezbollah have exchanged sporadic rocket fire on Israel’s northern border in recent days, and Iran has warned that the war’s expansion is becoming inevitable.
The most powerful military assets at Biden’s disposal are aircraft carrier strike groups. The Ford is likely already helping Israel gather intelligence, but the ships have the potential to do much more.
The carriers give the U.S. “significant leverage” in the region, said Phil Davidson, a retired four-star admiral who commanded aircraft carrier strike groups. Together, the two carriers equip about 80 aircraft with strike capabilities, as well as cruisers, destroyers and submarines armed with Tomahawk missiles, he said.
They could also help Israel defend itself. Weapon systems such as destroyers in the battle group “can complement Israel’s ballistic missile defense system against the potential of Iranian intermediate-range ballistic missile attacks,” Davidson said.
The Pentagon has placed 2,000 troops on heightened alert, and defense officials say the US Marine Corps Bataan Amphibious Ready Group and the 26th Marine Expeditionary Unit, with more than 4,000 sailors and Marines, will join the growing US fleet off the coast of Israel.
Direct US involvement in military action could also influence voters’ attitudes, both positively and negatively, as Biden prepares for a tough re-election contest next year.
There is virtually no question of an important role for American ground forces in a potential conflict.
“There are no plans or intentions to put American boots on the ground in the fight in Israel,” National Security Council spokesman John Kirby told reporters on Tuesday.
Still, U.S. troops could be deployed in a number of scenarios.
One of the most serious would be a massive rocket attack on Israel by Hezbollah, which is estimated to have about 130,000 rockets. Israel has warned that such an attack would be met with an overwhelming response, and it is possible that US forces would be involved in any retaliation.
Biden on Wednesday denied an Israeli report that the US had already told Israel it would join the fight if Hezbollah attacked.
Hezbollah could also be tempted to target U.S. bases or personnel in the region, as it has done in the past. The group is believed to have been behind the 1983 suicide truck bombings of the US Embassy and US Marine Barracks in Beirut.
Retaliation could also come from Iranian proxy groups in Iraq or Syria, which could fire missiles at Israel or even attack US troops and installations.
In that case, the U.S. would likely follow a tit-for-tat playbook, said Kenneth Pollack, a former CIA Middle East analyst. “If they start shooting at us, we can just go after whoever is shooting at us,” he said. In March, the US carried out airstrikes on so-called Iranian-linked groups in Syria after a drone strike killed a US contractor and injured five US service members.
There is no guarantee that US deterrence will work.
Thousands of Palestinians have been killed when Israel carried out airstrikes on what it claims are military targets, sparking protests in cities around the world. The stakes will increase if Israel proceeds with a ground invasion that will almost certainly involve bloody street-to-street fighting.
“Hezbollah is difficult to deter,” said Emily Harding, a former CIA Middle East analyst. “They will look at Biden’s record of military involvement in the region and conclude that this administration has little to no appetite for direct military activity.”
Iran said on Monday that the expansion of the war was becoming increasingly inevitable. “Time for political solutions is running out, and the possible expansion of the war on other fronts is approaching the inevitable stage,” Iranian Foreign Minister Hossein Amirabdollahian wrote on social media platform X.
Yet Hezbollah may have its own reasons for not getting involved. A renewed conflict could erode support in Lebanon, which is mired in an economic crisis.
Iran also has reasons to discourage Hezbollah from going too far, said Pollack, the former CIA analyst. “Iran’s whole approach is that they have a long-term strategy toward the Middle East and Israel. As far as they’re concerned, it’s working. They just have to get on with it.”
(This story has not been edited by NDTV staff and is auto-generated from a syndicated feed.)
