ALBANY, NY — The first official debate in the Democratic primary for New York governor took place last week with little attention or fanfare, and perhaps for good reason: the race favorite, Governor Kathy Hochul, was not in attendance.
That will change on Tuesday, with the first of two debates between Ms. Hochul and her two main party rivals, Long Island Representative Thomas R. Suozzi and Jumaane D. Williams, New York City’s public advocate.
Organized and broadcast by WCBS-TV, the hour-long debate will give candidates the chance to introduce themselves to voters and test their arguments against Ms Hochul, who – with the primary on June 28 away – has a commanding lead in the polls.
But the same polls show voters’ concerns — including fears of crime and disapproval of the hefty government subsidy going to a new Buffalo Bills stadium — that could point to potential vulnerabilities in the governor’s armor.
Last week’s two-man debate was more of a shared opportunity for Mr Williams and Mr Suozzi to snare Ms Hochul and get a glimpse of the lines of attack they are likely to use in Tuesday’s debate and on the campaign trail.
How will Ms. Hochul fend off the attacks she has now seen an example of? Will the non-aggression pact between Mr Suozzi and Mr Williams that was on display last week hold up? Is there still time for a breakthrough moment that could change the shape of the race?
Here’s a look at the candidates and some of the key issues they’ll be grappling with.
A focus on crime
Even before the mass shootings in Buffalo, Uvalde, Texas and Oklahoma, tackling gun violence was a priority for New York politicians, and it has become even more urgent now.
Suozzi has put crime fighting at the heart of its platform, released a 15-point plan and repeatedly called for a rollback of changes made to New York’s bail laws in recent years that were designed to reduce the number of people incarcerated for lack of bail. money. A feature of Mr. Suozzi is that judges should be given discretion when assessing a defendant’s “dangerousness” in setting bail.
Ms. Hochul made similar proposals at the most recent legislative session, making some changes, but meeting opposition from others in the left-wing legislature. She’s likely to announce these changes, as well as the gun-safety bill she recently signed into law, as evidence of her government’s progress in curbing gun violence.
On the other side of the issue is Mr Williams, who has argued against reversing bail reforms and said government agencies and community groups can “co-create” public safety if provided with the right funding.
Suozzi presents herself as the experienced executive
For much of the campaign, Mr. Suozzi has rarely missed an opportunity to question Ms. Hochul’s abilities, and to suggest that the New Yorkers under her leadership are unsafe.
This tactic could both help and hurt Mr. Suozzi, political observers say. On the one hand, he’s well-positioned to point out Ms. Hochul’s inconsistencies, such as criticizing Washington for doing little about gun security, while barely advocating gun reform during her time in Congress, and at one point even earned an NRA approval.
But by striking too hard, Suozzi could risk coming across as bullying or dismissive, analysts said — especially dangerous given the makeup of New York’s Democratic primary electorate.
“Look, 58 to 60 percent of the top voters in this election will be women,” said Bruce Gyory, a Democratic political adviser, adding that “a lot of them are highly educated, professional women who are really into the mansplaining.” . .”
Mr. Suozzi has highlighted his background as director of Nassau County and mayor of Glen Cove, suggesting that he is best equipped to lead the state as an experienced director.
In addition to his focus on making changes to bail laws, Mr. Suozzi said he would push for real estate tax cuts and for the state government to do everything it can to make New York more attractive for business.
Those views place him in ideological territory very similar to Ms Hochul’s. Perhaps that’s why Mr. Suozzi has struggled to make progress in polls or fundraising so far, raising $3.5 million in the last reporting period, compared to Ms. Hochul’s more than $10 million.
Williams has the progressive job to himself
As the only far-left candidate in an increasingly progressive state, Mr Williams has a clear path ahead of him. He also has experience running against Ms. Hochul: in 2018, he lost to her in a competitive race for lieutenant governor.
Still, his campaign for governor has failed to build momentum so far, raising just $250,000 in the last filing period.
During last week’s debate, Mr. Williams refrained from lashing out at Mr. Suozzi, to save his barbs for the governor. He repeatedly suggested that Ms. Hochul’s six years as lieutenant governor to Andrew M. Cuomo, who resigned last year over sexual misconduct allegations, had made her complicit in some of his more unpopular policies.
Mr. Williams has also said Ms Hochul should show more from her tenure, citing the lack of access to food and transportation options in the largely Black Buffalo neighborhood where the shooting took place as evidence that she had done little for voters in her area. birthplace.
In Tuesday’s debate, political analysts suggested Mr Williams will have to attack without going too far. But more than that, he will hope for a breakthrough moment that could bring his candidacy and ideas — such as public power, free public colleges, and public safety based on community building rather than police — into the conversation.
But that’s easier said than done, said Steve Israel, a former Long Island congressman who once led the House Democrats’ campaign and supported Ms. Hochul.
“Unless you have a grenade with a pin half pulled out, it’s hard to break through,” he said.
Hochul will practice risk management
The calculus for Ms. Hochul is the opposite. Armed with the power of the incumbents, a large number of endorsements from powerful unions and a $18.6 million dollar war chest, she will do everything she can to maintain the current momentum of the race.
Ms. Hochul will likely try to highlight the victories she’s had in her most recent legislature, including gun safety and abortion laws and a gas tax vacation, while trying to steer the debate away from controversy.
It won’t be easy. Its first lieutenant governor, Brian Benjamin, resigned after being indicted on federal bribery charges; the Bills stadium deal was heavily criticized; and the fundraising records she set in her first year in office have raised questions about her relationship with major donors.
The debate gives its opponents the opportunity to press live television for answers to difficult questions. But if she’s able to fend off attacks from the left and right, strategists said, she’ll be well positioned to claim a middle ground.
“Her best-case scenario is status quo,” said Evan Stavisky, the chairman of political consultancy Parkside Group.
“She has to defend herself vigorously, because she will probably be the center of the contrast from her opponents,” he said. “She needs to talk about her successes and get out of there without changing the fundamental dynamics of the race.”
Strengthening New York’s Economy
Another critical question for candidates is how to revive the state’s economy, especially as New York continues to recover from the worst effects of the coronavirus pandemic and some residents move to other states.
Each candidate has different explanations for the outflow of people. mr. Suozzi blames crime and taxes. Mr Williams points to a general rise in prices and to employers forcing employees back into their offices. He proposes that the state should embrace a ‘new normal’.
Ms. Hochul has tried to pull the needle, promising to make New York the most “business-friendly and worker-friendly state in the country.” How successful she has been will no doubt be a subject of much debate.