Paris/London/Berlin:
Europe is anticipating the prospect of Liz Truss as Britain’s next prime minister with a mixture of irritation and uneasiness: diplomats say that with the war in Ukraine and rampant inflation, another Brexit battle is the last thing they need.
Truss, frontrunner in a ruling Conservative party contest to succeed Boris Johnson, has few admirers in the 27 countries of the European Union to begin with.
As Foreign Secretary, she championed legislation that would unilaterally tear up part of the UK’s divorce deal with the EU, and as Prime Minister she has promised to let it go through – a move that would put London on a collision course with Brussels.
Her rhetoric during the leadership campaign, although aimed at members of her party who speak a little badly about France and the EU in general, will have been of little help.
When asked last month whether French President Emmanuel Macron was a “friend or foe” of Britain, she replied: “The jury is out”.
“In the current context, it is mind-boggling that she thinks she can afford to make such comments,” said a Brussels-based diplomat. “We are 200 percent focused on the war in Ukraine, widespread inflation. We have no time to lose on this.”
Truss campaign officials said the comments were a “joke” and unlikely to have a lasting impact on Franco-British relations.
Still, a French government source said the comments underscored the lack of trust between Paris and London, fueled by allegations that Macron has not done enough to stop the flow of migrants crossing to English shores by boat.
Brace yourself for a rough ride
In Germany, members of the ruling coalition are unimpressed with Truss and deplore what they see as EU bashing to distract from Britain’s mounting domestic problems.
“You also have to give the new prime minister a chance,” said Nils Schmid, foreign policy spokesman for the ruling Social Democratic party. “But anyone who believed it couldn’t get any worse after Johnson got it wrong is wrong. Many of Ms. Truss’ statements are either unfortunate or incorrect.”
EU diplomats say that while Truss initially opposed Britain’s departure from the bloc ahead of the 2016 Brexit referendum, she wholeheartedly supported it as a member of Johnson’s cabinet, and is therefore unlikely to be a more conciliatory approach to thorny post-Brexit issues.
Britain left the bloc on January 31, 2020, but has since been embroiled in a dispute over the rules it had agreed on trade arrangements for the province of Northern Ireland.
Under the Northern Ireland Protocol to the Brexit deal, the province remained in the EU’s single market for goods and customs union, while retaining its open border with EU member Ireland.
Britain says that arrangement, which effectively creates a customs border in the Irish Sea, is unworkable and that the bill now passed by parliament would disperse it.
The EU has already launched legal proceedings for violations of what it believes is a binding treaty.
However, Truss appears determined to move forward with the bill and could – according to some reports – lead to a so-called “Article 16” emergency provision to take unilateral action against Northern Ireland next week within days of taking office next week.
That would heighten tensions with the EU’s executive, the European Commission, and could eventually lead to a trade war, with the EU imposing tariffs on British goods.
“The Commission will be on the front lines and give a very strong response,” said the Brussels-based diplomat. “Europeans are all on the same landline.”
A member of Truss’s campaign team said she hoped a change of government would reset Europe, but while she preferred a negotiated solution to the Northern Ireland deadlock, taking the “Article 16” route was an option.
“This will not be the default option, but we will not shy away from making difficult decisions,” the official said.
An experienced Brussels ambassador said Europeans are bracing for a tough ride: “It’s going to be rock and roll,” he said.
(This story was not edited by DailyExpertNews staff and was generated automatically from a syndicated feed.)