Allan Lichtman, often called the 'Nostradamus' of US presidential polls, blames the 'explosion' of disinformation and billionaire Elon Musk for his incorrect prediction that Kamala Harris would win the 2024 election. Mr. Lichtman, a professor at American University, is known for his accurate predictions of nine of the last 10 U.S. elections. Last week, however, the historian and political scientist took a loss on his remarkable record of predicting that Vice President Kamala Harris would win the 2024 presidential race. Now, talking to News NationMr. Lichtman offered a deeper explanation for his incorrect prediction, pointing to conservative media platforms and Elon Musk, who poured millions into Donald Trump's campaign, as a factor in his inaccurate prediction.
“Number one: disinformation. We've always had disinformation, but disinformation has exploded to an unprecedented degree. You talked about an election of complaints, but many of those complaints were caused by disinformation,” Mr. Lichtman told the newspaper.
The political scientist went on to mention X (formerly Twitter) owner Elon Musk, who appeared at some of Donald Trump's campaign rallies and became one of the loudest media cheerleaders. He alleged that Musk's microblogging platform was used to spread misinformation on issues such as immigration, hurricane relief and the war in Ukraine.
“We saw something brand new this time: billionaire Elon Musk putting his thumb on the scale,” Lichtman said.
“It has been reported that his misinformation has had billions, literally billions of views and has spread to every aspect of this election,” he added.
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Mr. Lichtman's method for predicting presidential election results was based on a historical index model he calls the “Keys to the White House.” This unique system analyzes the political landscape through the lens of 13 true-false statements targeting the party of the incumbent president. If six or more of the statements are false, the challenger is predicted to win.
In the interview with News Nationthe academic acknowledged that his method “may” need to be changed in light of last week's events. “The premise of the keys is that a rational, pragmatic electorate decides whether the White House party has governed well enough to get four more years. But if the views of the White House party are controlled by disinformation, driven primarily by those who are, are wealthy to the extent that they have extraordinary influence beyond anyone else, then perhaps the premise of the keys should be changed,” Mr. Lichtman said.
Notably, Allan Lichtman has been predicting the results of the US presidential elections since 1984. He has accurately predicted the last nine of the ten presidential elections. He previously even predicted that Trump would be impeached during his presidency – and that happened twice.