Free and fair elections in democratic societies reveal the spirit of a nation, especially in the United States with its extensive election cycles. What is the public mood in the most influential country in the world, on the eve of a decisive vote?
If you had to sum up the prevailing sentiment in the US as election day approaches, it would be 'blue funk'. The atmosphere is steeped in fear, division and a sense of foreboding. With near-total polarization and increasing intolerance fueled by Donald Trump's militant campaign style, this election is being viewed with unprecedented concern, unhappiness and fear.
Nearly nine in 10 voters believe that America will suffer lasting damage if their party loses. Nearly 60% of Kamala Harris supporters say they feel “afraid” of a Trump victory; 47% of Trump supporters feel the same about a Harris victory. More than half of voters expect possible violence after the election, and 53% expect divisions in the country to increase regardless of the outcome. Alarmingly, one in five Americans would consider resorting to violence to achieve political goals.
“People are fed up”
Scott Evans, 64, an early voter in Atlanta, expressed his disappointment: “I feel like I'm living in a country I don't want to be in anymore.” Madison Bates, a 21-year-old student, added, “Civil war people against the government. I definitely think if Trump doesn't get in, that's what could happen. People are fed up. You see it every day.”
This grimness is clearly visible in public opinion statistics. Six in ten voters think the country is on the wrong track. More than half say they are worse off than four years ago. In swing states, seven in 10 voters believe that the political and economic systems require substantial change or even a complete overhaul, and they view the economy as rigged for the benefit of the rich and powerful.
Public opinion about politics and politicians is “relentlessly negative”. More than a quarter of respondents (28%) view both major parties unfavorably, and 63% have little or no confidence in the future of the political system. It's no surprise that a nonpartisan group has labeled the American electorate an “exhausted majority.”
What Americans think about the economy
In politics, perception often becomes reality, especially when it comes to the issue of voters' greatest concern about the economy. Only 5% of Americans rate the current economy as “excellent” or “good,” while 51% believe it is in “poor” or “terrible” shape.
Real disposable personal income, which is mainly net wages, has stagnated over the past four years. With the cost of basic needs rising 20% during this time and housing, childcare and healthcare costs still rising, affordability is a major issue, with many blaming the Biden-Harris administration.
The impact is particularly severe for the 60% of voters without a college degree. In 1980, workers earned nearly 10% more than the national average, which allowed them to support families, buy homes, take vacations and send their children to college. Forty years later, their inflation-adjusted income is stagnating and they now earn 10% less than the average worker.
Union membership rates are historically highest in the Midwestern swing states of Michigan, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania, where organized labor once commanded a premium on wages. With the decline in unionized manufacturing jobs, incomes have fallen relative to other sectors, leaving many susceptible to the MAGA narrative that they are victims of a zero-sum economy in which immigrants and women make profits at their expense .
A nuanced reality
Yet the reality of the American economy is more nuanced and less grim. While prices rose about 20% from the start of the pandemic through 2023, the average worker's hourly wage increased by more than 26%. From 2019 to 2023, wages for the lowest-paid decile of workers rose four times faster than those for middle-class earners, and more than ten times faster than for the richest decile. Wages for workers under 25 have also increased twice as fast as those for older workers. Meanwhile, the 'college wage premium' (the wage gap between people with and without a university degree) has fallen to the lowest level in fifteen years.
The Federal Reserve's triennial Survey of Consumer Finances shows that between 2019 and 2022, the average U.S. household's net worth increased 37%, from about $141,000 to $192,000, when adjusted for inflation. This is the largest three-year increase since 1989. Every income group saw significant increases in net worth, with the largest increases seen among lower-income, middle-class, Black, Latino, and younger households, contributing to a modest decrease in net worth. wealth inequality.
The economic picture remains complex, with significant improvements for many alongside continued affordability challenges for others, creating a conflicted national mood as voters head to the polls.
The Economist offers some telling statistics in his recent cover story on the US economy titled The envy of the world. Average wages in America's poorest state, Mississippi, are higher than averages in Britain, Canada and Germany. This year, the average American worker will generate approximately $171,000 in economic output, representing a 70% increase in productivity over the past 25 years. The US is responsible for more than half of global private sector investment in AI. As the article concluded, “An economy with a 4% unemployment rate and a GDP per person of $85,000 doesn't need to be made great again; it's great.”
Trump's Immigration Gambit
Trump knows that immigration puts the Biden-Harris administration on slippery ground, which is why he has made it his top campaign issue, ignoring his advisers' calls to prioritize the economy. The government kept the borders relatively open until June last year, when enforcement measures were finally tightened. Harris has tried to shift some blame to Trump, citing his role in blocking a bipartisan bill earlier in 2024 that would have previously enforced stricter policies. But this strategy has not gained ground.
Over the past two years, net immigration to the US has been the highest globally, with 2.6 million immigrants in 2022 and 3.3 million in 2023. Nine million immigrants have entered the country since Biden took office, about half of them without paper. Only one in five Americans find these numbers acceptable; 32% believe the US should “slow the flow of immigrants,” and 16% favor “imposing a moratorium on newcomers.” A third said America should “close the border immediately.”
Trump has rallied his base, especially the MAGA contingent, against undocumented immigrants, inflating their numbers to between 20 and 25 million, though the actual number is probably about half that. He has promised to carry out mass deportations if elected. More than 60% of Americans, including 53% of Hispanics, say they support a program to deport undocumented immigrants.
Immigration has become a flashpoint, underscoring the deep cultural divides in the US. Studies show that immigrants' “different way of life” is often seen as a threat to long-standing communities, especially among older, non-college-educated, predominantly white, working-class populations. European backgrounds, but also religious and rural Americans. These groups feel increasingly alienated from changing social and moral values, believing that elites are complicit in eroding traditional identities.
Religion and politics
Despite declining religiosity, nearly two-thirds of Americans identify themselves as Christians, according to the Public Religion Research Institute. In the 1980s, white Christians, especially “born-again” evangelicals (who make up 14% of the population), emerged as a major Republican voting bloc. Today, 60% of Protestants, including 8 in 10 white evangelicals, support Trump. Surveys by political scientist Paul Djupe show that 18% of Americans strongly agree that modern-day prophets continue to reveal God's plans for humanity. Of them, three-fifths believe the upcoming election could be the last chance to “rid America of demonic influence,” and two-fifths think a civil war may be necessary to “get the country back on track.”
Gender is another widening societal divide. The political views of men and women differ widely. A recent poll shows that men favor Trump by four percentage points, and women favor Harris by ten percentage points. Nearly seven in 10 Trump supporters believe Harris' policies will make men's lives worse. While in the Obama years the gap between young men and women identifying as liberals was just five points, under the Trump-Biden years this gap has tripled to 15 points.
Historically, incumbents have required an approval rating of nearly 40% to secure re-election; Approval of the Biden-Harris administration currently hovers around 28%. But with Harris neck-and-neck with Trump in the final days, her viability depends largely on Trump's unfavorable ratings. Trump's net negative rating remains high among American voters. The Harris campaign is banking on a voting advantage to offset the Republican side of the Electoral College.
Stay tuned for the latest announcement from next week's US presidential election.
(Ajay Kumar is a senior journalist. He is former editor-in-chief of Business Standard and former editor-in-chief of Economic Times.)
Disclaimer: These are the personal opinions of the author