Russia’s hunt for weapons to fire on Ukraine could be a lifeline for North Korea, where even a relatively modest arms deal would help revive the country’s cash-hungry and stagnant economy.
The US made new allegations this month that Kim Jong-un is supplying arms and ammunition to support Putin’s war, including by sending grenades and missiles. While the Biden administration said the guns won’t do much to change the battlefield, the sale would open up a new revenue stream for a country isolated from much of the world’s trade.
While North Korea has denied US allegations about the arms shipments, such a deal would be well timed for Kim. Its border closures during the pandemic sent North Korea’s already anemic economy into one of its biggest contractions in decades.
North Korea’s economy has failed to grow in 2021 and faced an uncertain outlook last year, according to the Bank of Korea in Seoul, one of the few entities that regularly assesses the country’s prospects. Meanwhile, Kim’s ostensibly lucrative forays into cryptocurrency theft may now come under pressure following the collapse of digital asset exchange FTX.
One thing Kim does have in abundance is weapons, especially the raw 20th century artillery that is experiencing a resurgence of sorts on Ukraine’s front lines. North Korea has untold supplies of ammunition to supply what the International Institute of Strategic Studies estimates is an arsenal of more than 21,600 artillery pieces.
“North Korea would jump at an opportunity to get rid of obsolete stockpiles of old munitions at a significant raise,” said weapons expert Joost Oliemans. The regime has produced a “large number” of older towed artillery designs that are compatible with some Russian systems, said Oliemans, who co-authored the book The Armed Forces of North Korea.
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The US has not provided details about the amount of weapons North Korea believes it has sent to Russia. But the Biden administration, when it first made the allegations in September, said the Kremlin wanted to buy millions of rockets and artillery shells.
National Security Council spokesman John Kirby told a press conference about a week ago that there were indications that the Wagner Group, a paramilitary organization heavily involved in the attempt to take the eastern Ukrainian city of Bakhmut, had North Koreans and equipment. He showed two photos of Russian train cars traveling to North Korea.
“We obviously condemn North Korea’s actions and we urge North Korea to immediately stop these supplies to Wagner,” Kirby said, noting the benefits to Kim’s regime from the transfers. “Let’s keep it in perspective. This is not a high-growth economy,” he said.
Some North Korean items likely to be on Putin’s wish list are 122-millimeter and 152-mm artillery shells and 122-mm rockets, Olieman said. The price for 122mm missiles was about $6,000 a few years ago, he said, adding that it was difficult to get prices on the items North Korea might ship.
A big deal could be worth hundreds of millions of dollars, Oliemens said, adding, “It would make sense for Russia to buy smaller lots first,” assessing their quality and effectiveness before committing to a larger purchase. It doesn’t take much — payments totaling less than $320 million — to add 1% to North Korea’s gross domestic product.
A State Department spokesman declined to comment on any potential economic boost North Korea sees from munitions sales to Russia, but said the US remains concerned that Pyongyang will provide more military equipment to the Wagner Group.
Any arms sale would represent a reversal of roles between neighboring countries, as North Korea relied for decades on arms from its former benefactor, the Soviet Union. Pyongyang has been barred from arms sales for more than 15 years under UN resolutions that Russia helped impose, though the country continues to sell arms to Iran, Syria and Uganda, among others, according to the US Defense Intelligence Agency.
“There are both economic and political incentives for North Korea to supply weapons to Russia, and the two may be intertwined,” said Naoko Aoki, an associate political scientist at the Rand Corp. in Washington. North Korea’s need for hard currency is the most obvious economic reason, but Pyongyang could be compensated in other ways, including through fuel shipments, she said.
In recent months, Russia has used its veto power in the United Nations Security Council to block additional sanctions against North Korea over its ballistic missile tests. North Korea is one of the few countries to recognize the Kremlin-controlled “People’s Republics” in Donetsk and Luhansk in eastern Ukraine.
Kim Yo Jong, the powerful sister of North Korea’s leader, last week reaffirmed the country’s support for Russia in its fight against the US and “its first-class henchmen.” “We will always be in the same trench with the service personnel and people of Russia who have come out in the struggle to defend the dignity and honor of the state and the sovereignty and security of the country,” she said, according to the official. Korean Central Press Agency.
Russia and North Korea appeared to have resumed trade on their only rail link late last year, according to satellite images published by the 38 North website. Any weapons shipped by rail from North Korea can make their way across the Eurasian landmass and into Ukraine without the possibility of a third-party ban.
In addition to cash, North Korea may also be seeking debt relief and possibly technology transfer, said Victor Cha, the senior vice president for Asia at the think tank Center for Strategic & International Studies. Much of North Korea’s ballistic missile arsenal is believed to be based on Russian designs, such as the Iskander missiles that Moscow routinely fires at Ukrainian targets.
“North Korea sees an opportunity in the Ukraine war to get closer to Russia, so it’s using Russia’s ammunition needs to do that,” said Cha, a former US envoy for six-nation nuclear talks with Pyongyang.
(Except for the headline, this story has not been edited by DailyExpertNews staff and is being published from a syndicated feed.)
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