Half of the container fleet sailing through the Red Sea and the Suez Canal avoids the route.
The US military is trying to reassure shipping companies that a multinational force makes it safe to navigate the Red Sea and the Suez Canal, even as attacks by Yemen-based Houthi rebels show no sign of stopping.
The Pentagon is “engaged with industry on an almost daily basis to gauge needs and provide reassurance that the international community is there to assist with safe passage,” said Air Force Lt. Col. Bryon McGarry, Defense Department spokesperson for the Middle East and Africa. said Thursday in an emailed response to questions.
So far, that has not proven to be enough for most shipping companies to gamble that a drone or missile aimed at their ships will not penetrate defenses.
“It will take a while for shippers to get a sense of the security situation,” said Mark Cancian, a retired Navy officer and senior adviser at the Center for Strategic and International Studies in Washington. “If it turns out that the US and the coalition can maintain safe passage, I think they will come back. But at the moment they don't know for sure yet.'
Cancian said in an interview that some shippers “will remain more risk averse than others. Those with ties to Israel may be more cautious.”
The Houthis, who are backed by Iran, have said they are targeting ships linked to Israel to show support for the Palestinians, although ships without direct ties to Israel have also been singled out.
Half of the container fleet that regularly transits the Red Sea and Suez Canal are now avoiding the route due to the threat of attack, new industry data shows. Many tankers and container ships are resorting to the longer – and more expensive – route around the southern tip of Africa, which could lead to higher prices for oil and a variety of consumer goods.
AP Moller-Maersk A/S, the world's No. 2 container line, said it is preparing to resume Red Sea passages “as soon as operationally possible.” But even Maersk has warned that “the overall risk in the area has not been eliminated,” and the company said it “would not hesitate” to re-evaluate the safety situation for its ships and employees.
Gene Moran, a defense analyst and retired Navy captain, once commanded the USS Laboon, the destroyer that shot down four drones in the Red Sea on Saturday. From his perspective, the shipping companies are still looking for the American-led coalition to do more.
“This method does not appear to address the root cause of the threat,” Moran said in an interview. “The Houthis can operate from the uncontrolled parts of Yemen. Something will have to be done about that. We appear to be moving very cautiously when circumstances seem to call for a stronger response.”
But the Biden administration has been reluctant to take action that could turn Israel's war against Hamas in the Gaza Strip — which began after that group's attack on Israel on Oct. 7 — into a broader regional conflict. Shipping companies can share that concern.
“If the United States were to start shooting at Houthi camps, it would demonstrably increase the risk, not reduce it,” Cancian said. “So I don't think shippers are particularly eager to start doing that.”
Less traffic through the Suez Canal | The daily number of crossings between tankers and freighters has decreased this month
The Pentagon has said that the Red Sea security initiative it is leading – called Operation Prosperity Guardian – is bringing together troops from Britain, Bahrain, Canada, France, Italy, the Netherlands, Norway, the Seychelles, Spain, Australia and Greece, as well as several others countries that do not want to be named. Still, the military has not yet released details on how it will operate.
Maj. Gen. Pat Ryder, the Pentagon's press secretary, said earlier this month that the coalition will function as a “highway patrol” in the sea.
Moran said the mixed nature of the threat, which includes potential attacks from drones, missiles and small boats, makes it more challenging to respond because not all ships participating in the force will have the same capabilities as the U.S. ships.
For the time being, the operation will continue indefinitely.
“We are not putting a timeline on this operation,” said McGarry, the Pentagon spokesman. “We will support our partners in the region for as long as necessary until the threat to international shipping on these waterways has ceased.”
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