Turbulence in Bangladesh now seems to be the rule instead of exception. Protests from multiple groups are now almost a daily issue, including not only students from different universities, but also Madrassa teachers and the general public. In the meantime, the 'students' of the anti-discrimination movement criticize the interim government, indicating that chief adviser Muhammad Yunus and his men can increasingly be isolated, even if they use any reason in the book to postpone elections. While Yunus and Party try to overthrow all the policy of Sheikh Hasina, in particular with regard to India, the question is to be asked whether a direction that is taken by a non -chosen government can be sustainable or not.
Pakistan wads in it
Totally unexpectedly, Pakistan has chosen to wade in this chaos, fishing in restless waters on possible profit. Immediately after the fall of Hasina's government, Syed Ahmed Maroof, the high commissioner of Pakistan, Yunus and held meetings with officials, including Fisheries Advisor Farida Akhter, education advisor Bidhan Chandra Roy, finance advisor Salehuddin Ahmed, Defig Khalid Hossin, with the envoy calling for the recovery of direct flights and meeting a team of US-Bangla Airlines for this purpose. That started almost immediately when a Panama flagship, MV Yuan Xian Fa Zhanmanaged by a Chinese shipping company, moored in Chattogram in November, bringing goods such as ceramics and raw material from Pakistan to Bangladesh. This was the first direct freight movement between the two countries. A second shipment followed in December, with the Bengal authorities removing a clause that requires physical inspection of cargo arriving from Pakistan.
A flurry of visits
The Bonhomie was also visible during a December meeting in Cairo between Yunus and Sharif, where the first since 1971 asked for a regulation of issues. This also includes the repatriation of more than 2 lakh stranded Urdu-speaking people who were full Pakistani civilians before the liberation for the liberation. Before that, Yunus Shahbaz had invited a meeting on the sidelines of the General Meeting of the United Nations in September for a ceremony that commemorates the 50th year of Bangladesh as a member of the United Nations. Important Pakistani officials were present, including Minister of Defense Khawaja Muhammad Asif, Minister of Information Ataullah Tarar and special assistant Tariq Fatemi. Further acts of 'friendship' include the removal of security controls about incoming Pakistanis, which was done through the Ministry of the Interior, under the supervision of well-known India-Baiter Lt. Gene. (Retd.) Md. Jahangir Alam Chowdhury, under whose term of office there had been a lot of bad blood on border policy.
The Pakistani High Commissioner has also remained extremely active and invited the Bangladesh army to visit – what they did, by a delegation led by Lieutenant General SM Kamrul Hassan (main character officer). That Bangladesh did not send a high -level officer could show his caution in this area.
Rawalpindi was not surprised. It sent a team to Dhaka under the leadership of Major General Shahid Amir Afsar, the ISIs director-general of analysis and previously Pakistan's Defense Attache in Beijing. Incidentally, he would speak Chinese fluently. Foreign Minister Ishaq Dar is expected to visit Bangladesh soon, even if a joint business council was set up in January. The next step could be the actual range of defense equipment, offered to Bangladesh, in particular the JF-17, not to mention the already announced training program for senior officers of the Bangladeshi army. It all goes very fast, despite political chaos within Pakistan and terrorist attacks almost daily. This is Rawalpindi who exploits his chances for the fullest before an elected government arrives.
China takes a bow
In the meantime, Bangladesh Minister of Foreign Affairs Touhid Hossain was a rather anxious visit to Beijing, in the hope that China would help his country against a serious economic crisis that has pushed inflation to almost 10%. Hussain apparently hoped that China would lower the interest on loans on loans from 2-3% to 1%, and asked Beijing to extend the repayment period of the 20 to 30 years loan. In the event that China bought almost all requests. In 'in principle' it agreed to lower the interest rates, to extend the repayment period and in particular also hospitals in Kunming for medical treatment, and to finance another in Dhaka for specialized treatment. It is known that 'medical tourism' from Bangladesh is one of the main pillars of the relationship with Delhi, good for around 50-60% of total medical tourism in India. Luo Zhaohui, the chairman of the China International Development Cooperation Agency, responded positively to requests for more concessional loans and projects, such as the upgradation and modernization of Mongla Port and the establishment of digital connectivity and 4G expansion. Some of these loans are promised to be converted into subsidies.
In the meantime, Chinese textile companies are moving their base to Bangladesh, and so the development of ports, including Chattogram, is vital to Beijing. Nothing was said about the Testa River project – a controversial issue for India – but that does not mean that it will be abandoned.
Money matters
The visit offers Dhaka a good lighting. Between 2019 and 2024, Dhaka received almost as many Chinese investments as Pakistan – a much larger country – through the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI). According to the Chinese ambassador, Bangladesh has received around $ 4.5 billion according to this initiative, with a further $ 22.94 billion in building contracts, which generates around 5.5 Lakh jobs in the country.
Before the visit, the James-E-Islami had also contacted the Chinese ambassador for help about the Rohingya problem, a difficult problem for the small, very overcrowded country. Beijing's fleet visit to Chattogram at the beginning of October, although probably planned before the fall of the Hasina government, also sent a powerful message of support.
The goodwill for China is clear that nothing has been said about the fact that Beijing Hasina supported completely – probably more than India in hard terms – and $ 251 million in interest annually owes, in the total debt of Bangladesh who has a $ 100 billion exceeded for a $ 100 billion for the first time in years. Islamabad may not enjoy the same goodwill, but it has something else: a strong support and a good intelligence network by religious parties. It is also full in different sectors, as seen above, with the help of the anti-India sentiment.
Three against Tango
With the offer of the JF-17s and the Chinese submarines already supplied, an unmistakable triangular link is developing. The question is whether a new government will continue with this policy, especially with regard to Pakistan. In this case, India must act quickly, in particular with regard to the Rohingya, a 'delivery' that can lead to enormous goodwill. That can simply be a generous help package and a diplomatic scope to Myanmar, despite the inherent risks in relations with that country. Although the US has responded negatively to the Yunus government – especially in view of the ties with former President Clinton – it is not in the interest of India to alienate Dhaka. And in all usability it is also not good for Bangladesh. Over time, a need will arise to make this reality known, especially in terms of economic benefits for Dhaka at a time when Yunus' disastrous policy is seen for what they are.
The Indian media must also control themselves in condemning the students and their very real 'revolution', and must acknowledge the very real and serious corruption that was endemic for parts of the previous government. All this and more must be done before a new government is chosen, which will decide whether Yunus' self -service policy is good for a country that was once known as an economic miracle.
(Tara Kartha is a former director of the secretariat of the National Security Council)
Disclaimer: These are the personal opinions of the author