Pakistan went to the polls last week
Pakistan went to the polls last week in what many thought would be a formality. Former cricket star Imran Khan was jailed and his side was banned from operating under its own flag or even using the famous cricket bat symbol. Analysts said the powerful military gave its blessing to three-time former Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif – or anyone other than Khan – to seize power, and that Sharif's return was the most likely outcome.
But in a surprising development, Khan loyalists – who ran as independents – flourished, winning the most seats of any group. Their contrasting actions highlighted voters' disillusionment with the status quo of Pakistani politics, which is dominated by two family-controlled parties and, analysts say, the powerful military. It was also a triumph for democracy, leaders of Khan's party said, as the Pakistani people demanded to be heard.
But even though candidates from Khan's Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf party (PTI) won the most seats, they may not form a government. That's because they don't have a simple majority, and the other two major parties can join forces. Khan supporters, who claim authorities are trying to influence the outcome, took to the streets on Sunday but not in large numbers, deterred by a heavy police presence.
Here's what you need to know about the historic election.
Which party won?
Independents, the vast majority of whom are Imran Khan loyalists, captured 101 of the 265 contested seats in the lower house. Sharif's Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz won 75, while Bilawal Bhutto Zardari's Pakistan People's Party got 54.
All parties did not achieve a simple majority of 133 seats. That's not surprising. Since military rule ended in 2006, no party has won an outright majority.
What happened next?
The Sharif and Bhutto parties have held talks about joining forces, a move analysts say is likely to be backed by the military, but they have not yet reached an agreement.
Meanwhile, Khan's PTI is complaining about the results, which it claims were manipulated. It wants more transparency about the count. The US, European Union and Britain have expressed similar concerns, while Pakistan's foreign ministry disagrees.
What is likely to come next?
The most likely scenario is that Sharif's party will make a deal with Bhutto Zardari's PPP. Both parties could then attract other parties to the coalition, and even some Khan-backed candidates. Sharif, or his brother Shehbaz, would probably become prime minister again.
Let us not forget that despite the Sharif and Bhutto clans' public opposition to each other, they formed a government together after Khan's ouster in April 2022.
It is unlikely, but not out of the question, that Bhutto Zardari, the son of assassinated former Prime Minister Benazir Bhutto, could eventually negotiate to lead a coalition. He has some influence, and at 35 he claims he represents a new face in a country where more than 60% of the population is under 30.
It is harder to see a scenario in which Khan's PTI forms a government given the military's opposition to it, analysts say. But one route could be to form an alliance with another party.
How will Khan's supporters react?
One question is how much Khan's supporters will push back. Remember, the military already pressured the PTI last May when supporters attacked government and military buildings after Khan was detained. Some observers say they are unlikely to want another confrontation.
What does this mean for the military?
It is not the outcome the military would have wanted. The support for Khan's loyalists is a demand for real democracy and a protest against the status quo. It is also clearly a protest against the military itself.
One question is what the military will do next. Pakistani generals have intervened three times in the country's history to directly rule the nuclear-armed country. The last time was in 1999 when General Pervez Musharraf deposed Sharif's government in a bloodless coup. Analysts say the same thing is unlikely to happen this time and they will continue to make decisions behind the scenes.
What does it mean for the markets?
Investors are focusing on whether Pakistan can negotiate a new bailout package from the International Monetary Fund when the current program ends next month. Any delay in reaching an election outcome is likely to affect that. That's why Pakistani shares fell the most in two months on Friday, while bonds also fell.
“The market needs clarity,” said Bilal Khan, head of international sales at Karachi-based brokerage Arif Habib Ltd. “The elections were on February 8 and we still don't know who will form the government.”
(Except for the headline, this story has not been edited by DailyExpertNews staff and is published from a syndicated feed.)