What is at stake for Egypt as Israel fights Hamas?

As the Israeli-Hamas crisis continues, much of the attention shifts to Egypt. Egypt shares a border with both Israel and Gaza – the narrow strip of Palestinian territory currently under blockade following the violent attack on Israel by Hamas, a radical Islamist organization that has controlled Gaza since 2007.

Moina Spooner of The Conversation Africa asked Ofir Winter, who studies Egyptian politics and the Arab-Israeli conflict, to provide insight into what the new war means for Egypt and the role it plays.

What was the relationship between Egypt, Israel and Palestine in the past?

Egypt is performing a balancing act in managing Israel-Palestine relations.

Egypt openly expresses its commitment to the Palestinian cause. This is because Palestine’s quest for self-determination is a central Arab and Islamic issue. Furthermore, due to its geographical proximity, any escalation in Gaza will have a direct impact on Egypt’s national interests.

This position is reflected in its response to the outbreak of violence between Israel and Hamas. Following the deadly killings and kidnappings of innocent Israeli civilians by Hamas earlier this month, Egyptian parliamentarians and state media have portrayed Israel as the aggressor and Hamas as the victim.

In line with previous actions, Egypt can be expected to take several steps to show its solidarity with the Palestinians. These include; the provision of humanitarian aid to Gaza, the evacuation of some injured people to Egyptian hospitals and a greater role in ceasefire mediation efforts. These steps make Egypt a major player in the conflict and would help strengthen its regional and international status.

However, Egypt does not want to alienate Israel either. Ultimately, they have a mutual interest: they do not want to see the resurgence of political Islam in the region. This is related to Egypt’s own experiences with Islamist organizations.

The current regime in Egypt expelled and outlawed the Muslim Brotherhood in 2013. The Brotherhood is a transnational Islamist organization founded in Egypt in 1928. Its objectives are to promote social and political change in Muslim-majority countries. After the Arab Spring in 2011, the Brotherhood held power in Egypt for a year before being ousted.

Hamas is an offspring of the Muslim Brotherhood and therefore Egypt considers it a threat.

But despite Egypt’s wary approach to Hamas, there has been an understanding between the two since 2017: Hamas’ cooperation in combating terrorism in Sinai would be accompanied by an easing of Egypt’s blockade of Gaza.

Although relations between Egypt and Israel are cooperative, they are not cordial. Egypt signed a peace agreement with Israel in 1979. And over the past decade, Israel has positioned itself as an important political, security and economic partner for Egypt.

In recent years, Egypt has mediated between Israel and Hamas and in Gaza’s reconstruction efforts. This is due to its proximity to Gaza and the fact that it controls the Rafah crossing – the only border with the Gaza Strip that is not under Israeli control.

But Egypt’s involvement in Gaza has certain limits that will not be crossed.

There will be no Egyptian military involvement against Israel on behalf of the Palestinians – a policy that stems primarily from Egypt’s commitment to the 1979 peace agreement between Israel and Egypt.

There will also be no sanctioned mass entry of Gazans into Egypt, according to statements by President Abdel Fattah el-Sisi and other Egyptian officials.

What consequences does the current crisis have for Egypt?

Egypt has so far rejected the idea of ​​displaced Palestinians moving to Sinai. But there is a possibility that a large number of Gazans will seek entry. This is separate from Gaza residents with foreign citizenship who are already waiting at the border to cross.

Egypt opposes Gazans crossing the border in large numbers as it opposes any challenge to its sovereignty in the Sinai Peninsula. His main concern is that displaced Palestinians could establish permanent residence in their territory, potentially undermining the already delicate security and economic situation.

The situation also poses a major security risk for Egypt.

First, border crossings by Gaza refugees, some of whom may be armed individuals linked to Hamas or other radical groups, could export instability to Sinai. For Egypt, there is a risk of more terrorist attacks and instability, as there was in Sinai before the 2017 deal with Hamas. Some of those attacks were carried out by well-armed and trained militant cells in Gaza.

Second, a huge blow to Hamas could lead to lack of governance, chaos and instability in Gaza. This will cause instability and could lead to the smuggling of weapons and fighters along the Egyptian border with the Gaza Strip.

The other security threat is that terrorist acts could be launched from Sinai into Israel by Palestinian militant groups, endangering the delicate relationship between Israel and Egypt.

How has Egypt responded and what should it do now?

Since the outbreak of the war, Egypt has worked to de-escalate the situation in Gaza and has held talks with Israel, Hamas, the Palestinian Authority, the US, Iran and other regional and international players.

The Arab League has already met in Cairo and an international conference is expected to take place in Egypt this weekend. Egypt is also trying to establish a humanitarian corridor to deliver food and medicine to the Gaza Strip.

At this stage, Egypt has more control than most other regional international players over the outcomes of the conflict, as well as over many interests.

The outcome of the conflict could yield some benefits. Egypt, for example, demands the return of the Palestinian Authority, which is more willing to participate in diplomacy and negotiations, as the governing authority in Gaza. A scenario in which Hamas is significantly weakened could pave the way for new developments, including possibly the gradual return of the Palestinian Authority. In this case, Egypt and Israel could find a more pragmatic neighbor across their borders.

If Hamas loses power at the end of the war, Egypt will most likely become involved in the transition phase of the government. As in the past few years, Egypt is expected to be the channel through which aid and funds from Arab countries and the international community will be transferred to Gaza, participate in the reconstruction process and be a dominant influencing factor in shaping its future .

Ofir Winter, senior researcher, Institute for National Security Studies, Tel Aviv University

This article is republished from The Conversation under a Creative Commons license. Read the original article.