Why destroying Iran's nuclear program is so difficult

Dubai, United Arab Emiraten-Iran Staart the opportunity to see his most important nuclear facilities hit by an American bomb of 30,000 pounds.

White House officials told NBC News on Tuesday that US President Donald Trump is considering a range of options, including Iran immediately, after the American leader repeatedly claimed that his administration would not allow Iran to reach his nuclear program or tree production.

Trump called for the “unconditional surrender” of Iran and wrote in a position about Truth Social that the US has the opportunity to kill the Iranian supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei.

“He is an easy target, but is safe there – we are not going to take it out (kill!), At least not for now,” Trump wrote shortly after explaining “total control” about Iranian airspace.

Khamenei responded on Wednesday and threatened the US with “irreparable damage” when Washington follows a military strike. “The damage they suffer will be much worse than everything Iran stands for. If they come in militarily, they will suffer damage that they cannot repair from,” said the Iranian leader, according to NBC News reporting.

The rapidly escalating conflict, caused by Israel's surprise attacks at Iranian military and nuclear facilities on 13 June, rose oil prices and set a region to sharply. Initially encouraging diplomatic conversations with Tehran, Trump's statements have always become threatening as the population across the Midden -Oostenbrace for what comes after.

But destroying Iran's nuclear program – of which Tehran claims it is only for civil energy purposes – is not an easy performance.

The most advanced and hardened nuclear facility of Iran, the Fordo factory in the northwest of the country, is a fort.

Built in a mountain about 300 feet underground and reinforced by concrete layers, the plant is the most likely target of a potential American strike-to-end by a bomb, except the GBU-57 solid ordnance penetrator (MOP). The US is the only country in the world that has this “bunker buster” weapon, as well as the only country with the plane that it can transport and use: the B2 Spirit Stealth Bomber.

This is partly the reason why Israel has been so enthusiastic for the involvement of the US in its attacking operations against Iran next to the defensive one.

But a strike in itself would not be a one -off job, say military experts.

“So you have two challenges. You would have to drop two of these penetrators on the exact same site” and probably need several bombing, according to David des Roches, a professor and senior military fellow at the near East South Asia Center for Strategic Studies at National Defense University in Washington, DC

“And then you would never be exactly sure how much of the facility you have damaged,” he added, which means that staff might have to be used on the ground.

“This makes me believe that for those facilities, Israel will eventually get control of the air and then force the landmans to the ground, force their way to the facility by exploding the doors and then placing explosive charges, the intelligence they can get, and simply explode, and just from the inside, said des Roches Cnb.

The military capacities of Iran have been seriously demolished in recent days by Israeli attacks, which have removed considerable parts of its air defenses, ballistic rocket batteries, command and control nodes and dozens of top commanders.

Nevertheless, such a strike could cause Iran to respond to responding by hitting American assets in the region, such as embassies and military bases. Trump has made it clear that every attack on American staff would attract a fierce American reaction, which would then pull the most powerful army in the world deeper into a regional conflict.

“The Iranians have indicated that they are ready to attack American bases in the region in the case of an American attack on their domestic soil,” said Gregory Brew, senior analyst on Iran and Energy at Risk Consultancy Erazia Group, and notes that American bases in Iraq are particularly vulnerable.

“There are risks in that environment that an Iranian retaliation causes the American victims, kills our soldiers and President Trump might forces the scope of the American action to expand and order extra strikes on Iran and that of course would threaten general escalation and drag us, not just a single operation.”

Despite its huge scale, the GPU-57 Bunker Buster would not cause wide-scale damage outside the area of ​​the facility, said des Roches. But it would have a “in -depth psychological effect on the Iranians,” he added, who have already seen considerable damage and radioactive contamination risks caused by the infrastructure of various of their nuclear locations in other parts of the country.

A further critical question remains whether the Trump administration will limit itself to the aiming of nuclear sites, or whether it will further expand the activities – something that the government of Israel has also insisted, because it transfers his wish to see regime changing for his old opponent.

“I think the conflict will end when Israel is convinced that Iran has lost for a considerable period, the ability to make a nuclear weapon, and that its defense is sufficiently weakened that Israel will be able to go back and effectively disturb further efforts of Iran to make a nuclear weapon,” argued des Roches.

If Fordo remains operational, the attacks of Israel would hardly delay Iran's ability to build a bomb, nuclear analysts say. The decisions from the house in the coming days will therefore not only be decisive for the trajectory of the nuclear program of Iran, but also for the chances of survival of the Regime of the Islamic Republic as a whole.

Ali Vaez, Iran Project Director at Non -Profit Crisis Group, is of the opinion that “Iran can survive and rebuild his nuclear program”, even without a diplomatic road for a deal with the US

“The US who entered the war closes the door to diplomacy,” Vaez told CNBC. “Trump may be able to destroy Fordow, but he will not be able to bomb the knowledge Iran has already gained.”