In the nearly 1,000 days since Xi Jinping last ventured abroad, China has become increasingly isolated within the US-led world order. He finally reappears this week with Russia’s Vladimir Putin to demonstrate his vision of a viable alternative.
Xi and Putin will hold their first face-to-face meeting on Thursday since Russia invaded Ukraine, according to the Kremlin, in a sign that Beijing sees the relationship as crucial to countering the US. It will take place on the sidelines of a Chinese-founded security forum in Uzbekistan that brings together countries from India to Iran – a group that aims to accelerate the formation of a multipolar world.
Prior to that, Xi will stop in Kazakhstan on Wednesday, where he unveiled what would become his signature Belt-and-Road trade and infrastructure plan nine years ago. That foreign policy initiative has since become a focal point of the US and its allies in the Group of Seven, which announced plans in June to raise $600 billion in funding so that lower-income countries have an alternative to Chinese cash.
Both stops will reinforce Xi’s vision of a world in which China can expand its interests without fearing the threat of economic or military pressure from the US. The Chinese leader will outline that agenda next month at a twice-a-decade party conference, in which he is expected to secure a third term as leader of the world’s second-largest economy.
“Xi Jinping seeks to refocus global affairs in a direction that decentralizes Western institutions and promotes groups and institutions more favorable to China’s interests and worldview,” said Trey McArver, co-founder of research firm Trivium China. Xi’s meeting with Putin, he added, “sends a very clear signal that China continues to lean towards Russia in that conflict.”
The stakes are mounting for both Xi and Putin, who declared a borderless friendship just weeks before Russia invaded Ukraine in February. In recent days, Putin has seen Ukraine push back Russian forces and recapture large swaths of land, while Xi has been pressured to take tougher measures to prevent Taiwan from strengthening relations with the US and its allies.
China has so far avoided doing anything that would subject it to US sanctions or help Russia win the war, even as Beijing provides diplomatic support to Putin and increases trade with its northern neighbor. China’s interest in helping Russia seems more focused on refuting US measures that could one day be used against Beijing as well.
In an article published in a Kazakh newspaper, Xi said the two countries should “jointly push for an international order that is fairer and fairer”. Top Chinese diplomat Yang Jiechi used similar language during a meeting earlier this week with outgoing Russian ambassador Andrey Denisov.
“China did not provide Russia with weapons or advanced electronics during the war,” said Iikka Korhonen, head of research at the Bank of Finland Institute for Economies in Transition. “They are aware not to violate these actions, at least not in an obvious way, so there are limits to what these so-called allies are willing to do.”
Moscow has tried to proclaim China’s support for the war. Last week, it released statements in which China’s No. 3 official Li Zhanshu told Russian lawmakers that Beijing’s leaders “fully understand the need for all the measures Russia has taken to protect its most important interests, we offer our assistance. “
Russia and China will step up efforts to counter NATO expansion and the US-led campaign to keep the two nations in check, Li also said, according to the TASS news agency. “We will fight together against their hegemony and the policy of violence,” he said. The comments were not reported by the Chinese Ministry of Foreign Affairs or state media.
Putin last week attacked US-led democracies at an economic forum in the Russian port city of Vladivostok, which included the Myanmar-sanctioned coup leader and Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi. “Western countries are trying to preserve yesterday’s world order that benefits them and force everyone to live by the infamous ‘rules’ they made up themselves,” Putin said.
Similar sentiments are likely to be expressed at the Shanghai Cooperation Organization meeting. The group, meeting on September 15-16 in the southeastern Uzbek city of Samarkand, accounts for 42 percent of the world’s population and 25 percent of global gross domestic product.
According to Raffaello Pantucci, senior fellow at the S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies at Nanyang Technological University in Singapore. India has moved closer to the US in recent years, especially through the Quad group which also includes Australia and Japan.
Although the SCO is more symbolic than content, the economic links within the group are crucial. As inflation rises around the world, Russia is a source of cheap energy for members like India.
China’s trade ties with Moscow have expanded since the war despite US sanctions: Russian exports to China rose nearly 50 percent in the first five months of the year to $40.8 billion, IMF data shows. That includes major increases in oil and gas.
Putin wants to use talks with Xi to further expand trade with China and obtain more industrial and technological imports to fill the gap left by the absence of Western goods due to sanctions, said Vasily Kashin, a expert on ties between Russia and China at the Moscow Supreme Council. School of economics. China’s exports of cars, televisions and smartphones have all helped Russia fill a void as foreign brands flee.
China got nearly 40 percent of its coal imports from Russia this year, as authorities anticipated a domestic energy crisis, up from about 30 percent in the same period last year, according to customs data. China has also snatched Russian shipments of liquefied natural gas at a hefty discount, as most other importers shun the fuel. LNG deliveries rose to their highest level in about two years in August, according to ship tracking data.
Politically, the visits to Uzbekistan and Kazakhstan also provide Xi with a comfortable environment to return to the international stage ahead of the Group of 20 summit in Bali in November. According to Steve Tsang, director of the China Institute at SOAS University of London, Xi is prioritizing engagement with “friends and partners” rather than allowing the G-20 meeting to be his first overseas visit since the Covid -lockdown.
“China and Xi can effectively set the agenda for this visit, something they can’t be sure of for a G20 summit,” he said. “Involvement with the US and the West is not seen as equally important.”
(This story was not edited by DailyExpertNews staff and was generated automatically from a syndicated feed.)