It turned out to be an outstanding performance in Pakistan's elections by Khan's Pakistan Tahreek-e-Insaaf (PTI), even while he was in jail. Although Khan himself was barred from running due to a conviction in a corruption case, PTI candidates, who had to contest as independents, won 91 seats in the National Assembly. While they are far from being stripped of power, the result signals the success of a risky political strategy Khan has deployed since his ouster as prime minister in a no-confidence vote in April 2022.
Tackling the military
What transpired in this election was eerily similar to what happened in 2018. Only the main characters were placed differently. It was Nawaz Sharif who was sentenced to prison less than three weeks before the elections and Khan enjoyed the support of the army. Allegations that the elections would not be free and fair were also similar, with the military explicitly accused of interfering in the process to promote its blue-eyed boy, Khan, to the premiership. Khan eventually became prime minister, but his relationship with the all-powerful military deteriorated within four years as he was seen to meddle in the supposed civilian no-go zone of military and ISI (Inter-Services Intelligence) appointments.
Once out of power, Khan took on the army in an unprecedented manner. Within a month of being deposed, he led a “long march” on Islamabad that turned violent. In another in November 2022, he was shot in the leg by a gunman who opened fire during a rally in Wazirabad. Khan accused a senior army official, Major General Faisal Naseer, of the attempted assassination. In a rare statement, the Pakistani military refuted Khan's allegations. It said: “This has been a consistent pattern over the past year of military and intelligence officials being targeted with innuendo and sensational propaganda in furtherance of political objectives.”
Khan's constant tirades against the army had an unusual and perhaps unimaginable outcome. The military, a formidable and unhindered force in Pakistan, saw violent attacks against itself in May 2023. Protesters took to the streets following Khan's arrest and were seen attacking not only police and government buildings, but also military installations. Shockingly, army headquarters and an air base were targeted.
This was one of the few early indications that Khan's political gamble to take on the army had paid off. It yielded dividends, and Khan's PTI was hopeful that it would even yield electoral dividends.
Fueling anti-American sentiment
As Pakistan's economy plummeted and Khan unceremoniously left power, he turned his guns on the United States. Khan not only accused the US of backing his ouster but also singled out US Assistant Secretary of State for South and Central Asian Affairs Donald Lu for conveying the same to the then Pakistani Ambassador to the US Asad Majeed Khan.
During a press conference, Khan himself said that Lu told Majeed Khan that there would be consequences if Khan was not ousted. As it was later revealed, the meeting had taken place in the backdrop of Khan's visit to Moscow, just as Russia attacked Ukraine and seriously upset Washington DC.
Khan, however, continued to use the argument of a “foreign conspiracy” behind his defeat in the no-confidence vote. The US denied the accusation of interference in Pakistani affairs.
Significantly, shortly after the victory of Khan's candidates, the US State Department released a statement saying: “The United States is prepared to work with the next Pakistani government, regardless of political party, to advance our shared interests “, while at the same time expressing concern about the allegations of election fraud – “allegations of interference or fraud must be fully investigated”.
Responding to the threat of 'outsiders'
However, over the past two years, Khan has successfully tapped into anti-American sentiment in some parts of Pakistani society. Although at one point he seemed to have made a U-turn when he told the Financial Times: 'As far as I'm concerned it's over, it's behind me. The Pakistan I want to lead must have good relations with everyone. especially in the United States,” he had already fanned the sparks of discontent and anger that had taken root in some places since the days of the “war on terror.” Khan used it as a political tool to raise suspicion against an outsider interfering in Pakistan's internal affairs.
Khan therefore appears to have used a political strategy that carries the risk of backfire, to make a political mark under dire circumstances. It may not lead to immediate, direct benefits in terms of political power, but it may have the potential to keep its support base intact.
(Maha Siddiqui is a journalist who has reported extensively on public policy and global affairs.)
Disclaimer: These are the personal opinions of the author.