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Shares of Modern rose more than 15% on Tuesday after Oppenheimer upgraded the stock to 'outperform', saying the Covid vaccine maker could bring five products to market by 2026.
The upgrade follows a dismal 2023 for Moderna, whose only commercially available product is the Covid shot. The company's shares have long been linked to its vaccine, and last year shares fell nearly 45% as demand for Covid products plummeted globally.
Oppenheimer analyst Hartaj Singh said the company's Covid sales could bottom out in 2024 due to factors such as vaccine fatigue. But the company expects Covid vaccine sales to rise in 2025 and beyond as Covid education and spending on awareness about the disease increases.
Singh was even more optimistic about Moderna's pipeline potential, highlighting a handful of potential product launches over the next twelve to eighteen months that could boost sales in 2025.
That includes a possible approval this year for Moderna's experimental vaccine, which aims to protect older adults against respiratory syncytial virus, which typically causes mild, cold-like symptoms but more severe cases in seniors and children.
The company has said the Food and Drug Administration will make a decision on its RSV vaccine in April.
Moderna's experimental flu vaccine could also win approval in 2024 or 2025, Singh said. In September, the company said the shot produced a stronger immune response against four strains of the virus than a currently available flu vaccine in late-stage research.
Singh also said Moderna could apply for FDA approval for its experimental personalized cancer vaccine in 2024 or 2025. The company can apply through the FDA's accelerated approval pathway, which allows accelerated approval of drugs that treat serious conditions and fill what the agency calls an “an.” unmet medical need” based on a specific clinical study.
Moderna and her partner Merck are currently investigating the injection in combination with Merck's blockbuster therapy Keytruda to treat patients with a deadly skin cancer called melanoma and other cancers.
Also on Tuesday, Moderna reiterated in a shareholder letter that it expects sales growth through 2025. The company highlighted its RSV vaccine and the possible approval for its combination shot against Covid and the flu, which could come “as early as 2025.”
Moderna said in its third-quarter earnings release in November that it expects revenue to fall to $4 billion in 2024 before growing again in 2025. The company expects to break even in 2026.. The company also said in November that it would only achieve the lower end of its $6 billion to $8 billion sales forecast for 2023, due to weaker demand for Covid vaccines.
Moderna has also said it plans to launch up to 15 products over the next five years — a goal it first outlined at its annual Research and Development Day in September.
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Correction: Moderna shares fell nearly 45% last year. In an earlier version the percentage was displayed incorrectly.