Ryan Gosling stars in Universal's 'The Fall Guy'.
Universal
For the first time since 2009, the box office won't have a Marvel movie to kick off the summer movie season — and it shows.
Since the release of 'Iron Man' in 2008, Marvel Cinematic Universe films have consistently launched this highly lucrative movie season, with only two films generating less than $100 million openings in that time (not including pandemic years).
This year it was the headline film for the first weekend of summer Universal “The Autumn Man.” And despite strong marketing efforts and good reviews, it failed to boost ticket sales at its opening last weekend. The film grossed less than $28 million in its domestic debut.
“'The Fall Guy' had good co-stars in Ryan Gosling and Emily Blunt, but its lack of a well-known franchise brand and a niche storyline made it too limited to attract a massive summer-like audience,” says Eric Handler, managing director at Roth MKM, wrote in a note to investors on Monday.
That stumble does not bode well for the summer box office, which was already on the verge of falling from last year's $4.1 billion after twin labor strikes in Hollywood halted production and clogged the pipeline of new film releases.
The result could drop the 2024 summer box office as much as $800 million compared to 2023, according to Comscore's Paul Degarabedian, and have a ripple effect for the entire year. After all, the main summer period, which runs from the first weekend in May through Labor Day, typically accounts for 40% of the total annual domestic box office.
A limited and unstable flow of new films means that moviegoers have not been exposed to movie trailers and poster promotions in their local cinemas and may not be aware of which films are coming to the big screen. In addition, this summer's film offering is not as strong as previous years, with fewer blockbusters and major franchise films.
There is only one superhero movie scheduled for this summer — “Deadpool and Wolverine,” the first R-rated Disney Marvel film — and it won't be released until late July.
Right now, analysts think the summer movie season will surpass $3 billion in ticket sales, but only just. Before Covid, summer box office consistently exceeded $4 billion. The last time ticket sales during this season were just $3 billion was in 2000, according to Comscore data.
“Even with the inevitable year-over-year revenue decline, summer ’24 should be judged more by the quality and value of the theatrical experience than by the amount of box office cash in the drawer,” Degarabedian said.
A mediocre summer
So far this quarter, the box office is tracking 48% year-over-year, Handler noted. While he expects May's slate to bolster ticket sales, box offices will “need to see some big splashes” to “gain back some lost ground.”
“Right now, movie theater operators need a significant infusion of content,” Handler wrote. “Not only is content volume down in the second quarter, but there's also a lack of sizzle.”
The biggest summer movie releases
May 9 – “Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes”
May 17 — “ALS”
May 17 – “The Strangers: Chapter 1”
May 24 – “Furiosa: A Mad Max Story”
May 24 – “The Garfield Movie”
June 7 – “Bad Boys: Ride or Die”
June 14 – “Inside Out 2”
June 21 – “The Motorcyclists”
June 28 – “A Quiet Place: Day One”
July 3 – “Despicable Me 4”
July 19 — “Twisters”
July 26 – “Deadpool and Wolverine”
August 9 — “Borderlands”
August 16 – “Alien: Romulus”
August 23 – “The Crow”
For the remainder of May, Disney's “Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes” is currently projecting a domestic opening weekend of between $55 million and $60 million. Paramount's “IF” is looking at around $40 million. And Warner Bros.' Furiosa is expected to fetch between $40 and $50 million.
However, these predictions pale in comparison to the major releases in the same month last year. Universal's “Fast
It remains to be seen whether this summer will produce breakout hits like Angel's “Sound of Freedom” last year, which could boost the overall box office.
A strong finish
What summer 2024 has to offer is a more family-friendly rate. A slew of animated films from established franchises should attract parents and children during the school holidays.
Currently, Universal's “Kung Fu Panda 4” is the second highest-grossing film domestically for 2024, with $188.4 million in ticket sales. Dune: Part Two from Warner Bros. and Legendary Entertainment is the highest-grossing domestic release so far this year with $281.3 million.
And there are some heavy-hitters coming during the last part of the year.
“Beetlejuice Beetlejuice” will be released in early September, “Joker: Folie a Deux” will be released in October alongside “Venom: The Last Dance,” and “Gladiator II,” “Moana 2” and “Wicked” will be released in November. December also includes 'Kraven the Hunter', 'Sonic the Hedgehog 3' and 'Mufasa: The Lion King'.
Notably, the first “Joker” grossed $335 million domestically in 2019, both “Venom” films generated $213 million each, 2016's Moana grossed $248.7 million and the previous two “Sonic” films scored $146 million and $190 million during their theatrical runs.
“Ultimately the race is won on the multiplex and not on a spreadsheet,” Degarabedian said.
Disclosure: Comcast is the parent company of NBCUniversal and CNBC.