Timothee Chalamet stars as a young Willy Wonka in Warner Bros.' “Wonka.”
Warner Bros. Discovery
LOS ANGELES — There are only a few weeks left at the 2023 box office, and it will be dominated by films from Warner Bros.
The studio is closing out the year with three major feature films – 'Wonka', 'Aquaman and the Lost Kingdom' and 'The Color Purple' – although it's unclear whether each will be a hit.
December is a crucial time for the domestic box office. According to Comscore data, the month accounted for more than $1 billion in ticket sales in the five years before the pandemic. While December 2021 came close to achieving this goal, aided by the release of “Spider-Man: No Way Home” from Sony And DisneyDecember 2022 was less than $700 million.
Overall, the 2023 box office is down about 19% from 2019, reaching $8.3 billion as of December 3. Box office analysts are hopeful that it could reach $9 billion before the end of the year.
With the weekend release of Beyonce's 'Renaissance' tour film and continued ticket sales of from Lionsgate “Hunger Games: The Ballad of Songbirds and Snakes”, Universal “Trolls Band Together” and Disney’s “Wish” generated nearly $100 million in the first three days of December, according to Comscore data.
Remaining December releases
- December 8 — “The Boy and the Heron” (GKIDS)
- December 15 — “Wonka” (Warner Bros. Discovery)
- December 22 — “Aquaman and the Lost Kingdom” (Warner Bros. Discovery)
- December 22 — “Migration” (universal)
- December 22 — “Anyone But You” (Sony)
- December 22 – “The Iron Claw” (A24)
- December 22 – “American Fiction” (Amazon-MGM)
- December 25 — “The Color Purple” (Warner Bros. Discovery)
- December 25 — “Ferrari” (neon)
- December 25 – “The Boys in the Boat” (Amazon-MGM)
“Like many sporting events, agility competitions or the proverbial horse race, the outcome of a given box office year often comes down to the final moments,” said Paul Degarabedian, senior media analyst at Comscore. “This year, December is particularly important when it comes to the high-profile slate of films on the calendar, which carries the full weight of a less-than-stellar November and a rather slow Thanksgiving [rests].”
Warner Bros. releases. will have a lot to say about whether December will make a lot of money. The studio has already topped the 2023 box office with the multibillion-dollar hit “Barbie,” and the December 3 releases are expected to deliver the biggest box office punch next to Universal and Illumination's animated film “Migration.”
Warner Bros. Discovery is still evolving after WarnerMedia and Discovery merged just last year. Chief Executive David Zaslav has been working to pay down debt and build free cash flow to set up potential acquisitions of smaller studios. Some of that cost-cutting started early in the new company's history with the axing of “Batgirl” and “Scoob! Holiday Haunt” before their release and the cancellation of more than a dozen TV shows for the streaming service.
The company's shares are up 15% this year through Wednesday.
Taraji P. Henson stars in Warner Bros. 'The Color Purple'.
Warner Bros. Discovery
According to BoxOffice.com, both “Wonka” and “Aquaman and the Lost Kingdom” are expected to generate between $32 million and $42 million during their openings. “The Color Purple” is slated for a debut of at least $13 million. (“Migration” is expected to be between $20 and $30 million.)
Expectations are high that 'Wonka' will bring families to the cinema, as the musical prequel has already generated goodwill with critics and scores a clear 'Fresh' rating on Rotten Tomatoes. And “The Color Purple,” also a musical, could attract a more mature audience, given the film's literary and theatrical background.
The King of Atlantis versus a family of ducks
It's Warner Bros.' 'Aquaman' sequel most concerning to box-office analysts. Audiences were lackluster for superhero movies this year, with Disney's Marvel Cinematic Universe posting its worst opening weekend in its history with “The Marvels.” The film has grossed less than $200 million worldwide since its November 10 release this weekend, another low point for the MCU.
DC has faced bigger problems at the box office compared to rival Marvel. “Shazam: Fury of the Gods” and “Blue Beetle” both grossed less than $150 million in their worldwide theatrical run this year, and “The Flash” took in less than $275 million worldwide.
“The DC brand in particular faces a major challenge after three mediocre to soft outings already this year and a general aura of uncertainty among fans knowing the franchise is effectively getting a soft reboot in 2025,” said Shawn Robbins, lead analyst. at BoxOffice.com. “I am very cautious about the 'Aquaman' projections under these circumstances.”
The new movie “Aquaman” also has a lot to live up to. The first film, released in 2018, generated more than $1 billion at the box office worldwide, making it the highest-grossing film in the DC Extended Universe franchise. Much of the fan interest came after the release of 'Justice League' in 2017, as moviegoers expected 'Aquaman' to move the franchise forward.
Jason Momoa stars as Arthur Curry, aka Aquaman, in Warner Bros.' “Aquaman and the Lost Kingdom.”
Warner Bros. Discovery
The majority of ticket sales were international, including nearly $300 million from the Chinese region alone. According to Comscore, domestic ticket sales amounted to only 30%, or $335 million, of the film's total worldwide box office.
The new “Aquaman” will also be released in China. But non-Chinese films have not seen the same benefit in China as they did in the years before the pandemic.
While Disney and 20th century “Avatar: The Way of Water” raked in $245 million in China, American superhero films have failed to boost interest in the country over the past year. Marvel's “Ant-Man and the Wasp: Quantumania” generated just $40 million in ticket sales, DC's “The Flash” took in just $25 million from the region, and the MCU's “Black Panther: Wakanda Forever” took in just $15 million. “Guardians of the Galaxy: Vol. 3” grossed $86 million in China.
“Aquaman and the Lost Kingdom” also faces an uphill battle due to comments made by new DC Studios co-head James Gunn. He basically said that the remaining films in the DCEU, including the Aquaman sequel, will not be connected to the studio's future projects. So fans have one less reason to go to the cinema.
The other wild card is Universal's “Migration,” a comedy about a family of ducks that opens on the same day as the new “Aquaman.”
The Comcast-owned studio has thrived at the box office in recent years with its animated films from the Illumination and DreamWorks animation arms. 'Minions: The Rise of Gru', 'The Super Mario Bros. Movie” and “Trolls Band Together” have generated strong ticket sales in the wake of the pandemic. Of course, all those films are tied to existing intellectual property.
“Migration” is an original story, but if it is well received, it could spawn its own franchise for the studio.
“No original animated film has achieved the kind of mega-blockbuster numbers of 'Mario' or 'Minions' during the post-pandemic era,” Robbins noted. “That fact alone makes it difficult to predict what kind of ceiling 'Migration' will or won't have in the wake of films like Disney's 'Wish' and Pixar's 'Elemental' this year.”
Still, few would consider Universal as the studio to pull off such a feat, especially since the film will open as kids begin their holiday vacations.
“Being the only major animated film to hit theaters later this month, there is certainly a path to success,” Robbins added. “If there is one studio that can break the trend and capture the appeal of a large family audience with an original animated film, it is Illumination.”
Disclosure: Comcast is the parent company of NBCUniversal and CNBC. NBCUniversal is the distributor of “Migration,” “Minions: The Rise of Gru,” “Trolls Band Together” and “The Super Mario Bros. Movie.” NBCUniversal also owns Rotten Tomatoes.