Taiwan has been under the threat of invasion for more than seven decades: China considers the island a breakaway part of its territory. In the months since Russia invaded Ukraine, Taiwanese citizens have come to view a Chinese invasion as a more serious possibility than ever. My colleague Amy Qin, who is based in Taipei, the capital of Taiwan, recently reported on how the island is preparing. I called her to find out more.
Why should an invasion half a world away worry people in Taiwan?
I cannot emphasize enough how deeply ingrained it is in the Chinese psyche that Taiwan is part of China. Even the most anti-Xi Jinping, anti-Chinese Communist Party, flaming liberal Chinese intellectuals will tell you that Taiwan is part of China. It’s very rare to meet someone who doesn’t believe that. It would be like telling me Maryland or Florida weren’t part of the US. If you look at Chinese foreign policy over the decades, Taiwan has always been the most important issue. Xi, the leader of China, has a specific vision of what he thinks a great China means, and Taiwan is part of that.
The people of Taiwan have known this for a long time, but Ukraine awakened people here to the idea that what seemed like a distant threat could actually happen. Taiwan and Ukraine are very different, but there are parallels. You have strong leaders who see these areas as the key to their nations. You have this huge power imbalance in terms of military and territory. After Russia invaded, it was natural for people here to make that comparison.
How did the residents react to this heightened sense of threat?
A growing number are taking matters into their own hands. Taiwan has a strong civil society and an increasing number of non-governmental organizations are holding so-called civil protection workshops. I recently went to one in Taipei in a sleek co-working space. This organization, Kuma Academy, provides classes focused on topics such as first aid and Chinese disinformation. About 40 people of different backgrounds and ages gave up their weekends to listen to lectures on topics such as fighting misinformation and to learn practical skills such as using a bandage to stop bleeding. Everyone listened intently and took notes on their laptops.
How popular are these kinds of preparation activities?
Demand has really gone up. The founder of another civil defense organization, Forward Alliance, told me it has been giving 15 to 20 classes a month since Russia invaded Ukraine. Classes are full within two hours of going online. He said his group has trained 1,000 civilians and medical workers. People take their children to learn first aid.
It also goes beyond first aid. Taiwan has really strict gun laws, but the interest in classes to teach people to shoot has also tripled since the start of the war.
But this is an island of 24 million people, so the people taking these classes aren’t necessarily a huge percentage of them. That’s why military analysts and former Taiwanese officials think that training civilians to get involved in the defense of the island should be a top-down government initiative. At the moment it is just a patchwork of local NGOs.
You reported on how the government wants to involve citizens in strengthening the island’s defenses. How are her efforts going?
The government hasn’t said much about how it plans to get citizens more involved. In April, officials released a citizens’ handbook on what to do if China attacks, and it was immediately panned. One recommendation was to scan a QR code for information if an attack occurs. But many people think that one of the first things China will do when it attacks is to cut off critical infrastructure. People said, “There will be no internet, so how are we going to scan QR codes?”
Taiwan’s government is trying to figure out what lessons it can learn from Ukraine’s defenses. But Ukraine actually only embarked on its most sweeping military reforms after Russia annexed Crimea in 2014. The question is whether Taiwan can make meaningful changes without going through a similar event. Taiwan is a democracy and politicians have electoral considerations. For example, extending military service would probably not be very popular.
We have seen a strong Ukrainian national identity emerge since Russia invaded Crimea. It grew only during the invasion and seems to help captivate Ukrainian troops. Has something similar happened in Taiwan?
There is a growing sense of a Taiwanese identity being defined in contrast to China. It is especially evident among youth born in Taiwan who do not identify as Chinese even if their parents or grandparents were born there. That is getting worse as China becomes more aggressive.
More about Amy Qin: She grew up in Northern California and studied Chinese politics at the University of California, Berkeley and Oxford University. Her family comes from the Chinese provinces of Shaanxi and Sichuan, where she spent summers as a child. She previously reported from Beijing and was one of many Times reporters to be expelled from China in 2020.
Life lived: Commentator Mark Shields delighted and confused the public with a penetrating analysis of America’s political virtues and shortcomings. He died at 85.