For more than a month, the democratically elected president has been imprisoned in his own home in Niamey, the capital of Niger. The camouflage-clad generals who seized power say they may bring him to justice. Talks about foreign intervention threaten his execution.
For many people, the military takeover in Niger at the end of July was clearly a coup d’état. And yet, in a textbook example of twisted diplomatic language, Biden administration officials have so far carefully danced around the word.
That’s, they say, because the word “coup” has major policy implications: Congress has mandated that the United States cut off all economic and military aid to any government deemed installed by a military coup, until the democracy in that country has been restored. .
That may seem like a fitting punishment for military leaders who have sabotaged a fragile African democracy. But U.S. officials are concerned it could also reduce America’s influence over Niger’s future, jeopardize military operations against militants in the region, provoke Russian influence, and exacerbate humanitarian suffering in one of the poorest countries in the world. world could get worse.
The Biden administration has already cut off most US aid to the West African country, and spokesmen for the National Security Council and State Department said the Biden administration was pursuing diplomacy in evaluating America’s democratic and security goals for Niger. A formal statement with long-term policy implications would come from the State Department’s legal office.
Sarah Margon, foreign policy director for the Open Society Foundations, noted that such debates are becoming known in Washington. In 2013, the Obama administration engaged in lengthy internal deliberations following a military takeover in Egypt, which President Barack Obama never described as a coup.
“It is increasingly a politicized determination, influenced primarily by security considerations — especially counter-terrorism,” said Ms. Margon, whose nomination for a top human rights position at the State Department was blocked by Republicans last year.
Many foreign policy and pro-democracy experts believe that the Biden administration should forcefully and formally label the events a coup d’état — an abbreviation for the French phrase “coup d’état,” which roughly translates to a coup d’état. blow to the state – now that several weeks have passed. are over and the military leaders who have detained President Mohamed Bazoum refuse to even negotiate.
The question is of particular importance because President Biden has made the defense of democracy a centerpiece of his foreign policy agenda. Biden administration officials have paid particular attention to democracy in African countries; In an August 2022 speech in Pretoria, South Africa, outlining the Biden administration’s vision for sub-Saharan Africa, Secretary of State Antony J. Blinken used the word “democracy” eleven times, calling it one of the four pillars of American democracy policy. continent.
For Niger, an ally of the US, hundreds of millions of dollars in US funding are at stake. Between fiscal years 2017 and 2022, the United States sent about $281 million in security aid to Niger, and about $664 million in health and development aid, according to the State Department. More than $180 million in aid from the State Department and the US Agency for International Development is “under scrutiny,” a department spokesman said.
A formal coup decision would also put pressure on the US military to close two bases in the country. But these bases were set up to help fight extremist groups, such as Boko Haram and Islamic State, that have for years destabilized Africa’s Sahel, the vast sub-Saharan region that includes Niger. However, current law does not require the closure of such bases pursuant to such provision.
Another concern is that cutting ties with Niger could create an opportunity for Russia, whose growing presence in Africa has alarmed US officials.
Throughout August, Biden officials insisted that declaring a coup d’état would be premature as they hoped that Bazoum would be released soon and that his government power would be restored.
“We hope we don’t have to get to the point where we have to make that decision, because our hope is that constitutional order is restored,” State Department spokesman Matthew Miller told reporters Aug. 8. I don’t believe that window is closed at the moment, but it’s a very dynamic situation.”
Almost a month later, that position is becoming increasingly difficult to maintain.
US officials have become more pessimistic since acting Deputy Secretary of State Victoria Nuland visited Niamey on Aug. 7. Mrs. Nuland met with generals there, but her requests for Mr. Bazoum and the leader of the coup, General. Abdourahmane Tchiani, were refused.
Before leaving Niamey, Ms Nuland said to reporters over the phone that she had visited the country in the hope of starting negotiations “to see if we could try to resolve these issues diplomatically.”
Ms Nuland said she had made “absolutely clear what is at stake in our relationship, and the economic and other forms of support that we will have to legally stop if democracy is not restored.”
Since then, General Tchiani and his colleagues seem to have only hardened their position, cutting off Mr Bazoum’s contact with the outside world and even threatening to assassinate him if democratic African countries kept their promise to intervene militarily to to restore his rule.
Tom Malinowski, a former top State Department human rights official in the Obama administration, said he understood why the Biden team did not immediately want to make a statement.
“But right now,” he added, “it’s hard to justify not calling the thing by its name. The coup law exists precisely for difficult cases like this, to ensure that we prioritize support for democracy when our national security organization would rather not, because preserving our reputation as a country of principles is also a vital national interest .”
Obama faced a similar dilemma in 2013 after Egypt’s top general, Abdel Fattah el-Sisi, toppled the country’s elected leadership. Obama officials were concerned about severing America’s close military ties with a key Arab partner in counter-terrorism. In the end, the Obama administration has not made a formal decision on the issue, although it has cut off some military aid as a compromise. Within a few years, aid was restored.
Even if the State Department issues a formal coup declaration, a loophole still exists: Congress passed legislation last year giving the Secretary of State the power to grant a waiver on grounds of national security, allowing U.S. aid to continue to a foreign regime that has taken power by force.
Carl LeVan, a professor at American University’s School of International Service, said the question is especially urgent given the recent spate of coups across Africa, including a wave in Gabon last week.
“This is the seventh coup in Africa in the last three years, so something is not working in US and Western foreign policy, and something is enabling military takeovers,” Mr. LeVan said.
One culprit, Ms. Margon suggested, is an overemphasis by the US on terrorism and other security issues, which she says are being exploited by military rulers to maintain Washington’s support.
The US government can be all too cunning in its language in such cases, Mr. LeVan said. He recalled the way the Clinton administration called the massacres in Rwanda “acts of genocide” in 1994, at a time when US officials widely believed that a genocide was taking place. But the government feared that a formal statement would put pressure on military intervention.
“How low will the bar of democracy be set before the democratic forces of the United States and Africa say, ‘There is a rock bottom we will not sink from’?” asked Mr. LeVan.