For some Ukrainian armed forces, Wagner Group soldiers were the best-equipped fighters they had seen since Russia invaded last year. For others, it was their training that set them apart: Ukrainian soldiers remembered battlefield stories of aggressive tactics or a sniper taking down a drone with a single shot.
But after the short-lived mutiny led by the group’s head, Yevgeny V. Prigozhin, it’s not clear whether Wagner will still be a force on the battlefield with his fate now in question.
For now, Wagner’s precarious status will no doubt be a relief to Ukrainian soldiers. While frontlines in Ukraine are likely to remain unchanged for the foreseeable future depending on how events in Russia unfold, the Ukrainian military may be able to take advantage of the chaos and weakening morale to make gains, independent analysts and US officials said.
Still, it is too early to determine the long-term consequences of the feud between Mr Prigozhin and the Russian military establishment, US officials said. In Bakhmut, Wagner played an outsized role in the campaign to take the eastern city, Moscow’s only major battlefield victory this year, and solidified an uneasy alliance with the Russian army – only to see the partnership break once the city was taken.
“The previous relationship between Wagner and the Russian government is probably over,” said Rob Lee, a senior fellow at the Foreign Policy Research Institute. “Even if this had not happened, it was unclear whether Wagner would have played the same role in this war as he did in the battle for Bakhmut.”
Heavy fighting in Bakhmut has left huge numbers of Russians injured or killed in the early months of this year, US officials said. By taking the city this spring, Wagner forces showed that they had learned hard lessons from the past year’s fighting, improving their tactics and making it much more difficult for Ukraine to build a strong defense.
Wagner’s contract fighters outran the Ukrainian defenders, using clever maneuvers on the ground and sending wave after wave of conscripted prisoners into battle.
But Bakhmut was a Pyrrhic victory for Mr. Prigozhin.
The city was not a prize that many in the Russian military thought was particularly important. Its strategic value was further diminished when the Ukrainian army took high ground on Bakhmut’s periphery, preventing Russia from using the city as a staging area for attacks that could have led Moscow to take Kramatorsk, the next city it tried to be control over eastern Ukraine.
In addition, events during and after Bakhmut’s capture appear to have accelerated the rift between Mr Prigozhin and the Russian Defense Ministry.
Mr. Prigozhin’s troops were only able to take the city center after Russian President, Vladimir V. Putin, ordered the regular army to reinforce Wagner’s troops to protect their flanks from attacks by the Ukrainians.
That influx of Russian troops was key to Wagner’s victory and cemented the army’s importance. But Mr. Prigozhin may have learned another lesson from the support he received from Mr. Putin.
After the capture of Bakhmut, the Russian Defense Ministry took steps to integrate Wagner into the wider army, which would have diminished Mr. Prigozhin’s power. When Russia forced all volunteers fighting in Ukraine to sign contracts with the ministry, it meant Mr Prigozhin should have placed his troops under military control, said Tatiana Stanovaya, a senior fellow at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace.
“This is one of the reasons why Prigozhin went crazy,” Ms. Stanovaya said, “because he realized that he is now from Ukraine.”
Mr. Prigozhin became increasingly sharp in his criticism of Russian military units thereafter, and US, British and Ukrainian intelligence agencies began to develop intelligence that he might launch an offensive move with his troops to counter a change in the Defense Ministry. force. That intelligence was proven right on Friday, when Wagner troops advanced to take control of a southern Russian town.
Just as quickly, the mutiny was over the next day, ending with the announcement that Mr. Prigozhin would stop his march on Moscow and accept exile to Belarus.
The Kremlin announced that Wagner troops who did not take part in the uprising would be allowed to sign contracts with the Defense Ministry. Those who had joined the convoy would not be prosecuted. The statement suggested that Wagner would no longer exist in its present form.
While part of Mr Prigozhin’s mercenary cadre will likely remain under the control of the Russian military, it is an open question how many Wagner soldiers would be willing to fight under the Ministry’s umbrella.
Ukraine will certainly try to capitalize on the chaos caused by Mr Prigozhin, but according to US officials and independent analysts, there did not appear to be any immediate defensive gaps to exploit.
And Mr Prigozhin’s march, at least according to preliminary analysis, did not cause Russian units to leave their positions in southern or eastern Ukraine to defend Moscow on Friday or Saturday, US officials said. As the drama unfolded, the war didn’t stop: Russian troops fired more than 50 missiles over Ukraine before dawn on Saturday.
Wagner has been an incredibly important tool of Russian foreign policy, particularly in Mali, the Central African Republic, Syria and other countries. While the group will most likely be transformed under the control of the Defense Ministry, it is not certain that the Kremlin will let it disappear as an effective fighting force.
And Mr. Prigozhin may also have another move to play.