For nearly a year, talks between the planet’s two biggest polluters, China and the United States, have been suspended as the effects of global warming have only intensified in the form of deadly heat, drought, flooding and wildfires.
John Kerry, President Biden’s special envoy on climate change, will arrive in Beijing on Sunday to resume climate negotiations with the Chinese government. He will meet with his Chinese counterpart, Xie Zhenhua, and other officials for three days, aiming to find ways to work together on climate change despite simmering tensions between the two countries over trade, human rights and other issues. Here’s what you need to know:
Why is this meeting important?
The United States and China are the world’s largest economies, the world’s largest renewable energy investors and, most importantly, the world’s largest fossil fuel polluters. Together they spew about 40 percent of greenhouse gases into the atmosphere.
Analysts agree that the speed at which the two countries reduce emissions and help other countries transition to wind, solar and other forms of clean energy will determine whether the planet can avoid the most catastrophic impacts of climate change.
“Without China, there is no solution to climate change,” said David Sandalow, a veteran of the Clinton and Obama administrations who is now affiliated with Columbia University’s Center on Global Energy Policy. “The two biggest emitters in the world should talk to each other about this existential threat.”
Why are the US and China now negotiating climate?
Leaders of the two superpowers are finally talking again after a year of extremely heightened tensions.
Beijing froze high-level diplomatic engagement with the United States in August after Representative Nancy Pelosi, a Democrat who was the Speaker of the House at the time, traveled to Taiwan, the island democracy Beijing claims as its territory. Mr Kerry had expressed hope that climate negotiations could be isolated from geopolitical rancor, but Chinese officials rejected that idea.
President Biden and President Xi Jinping of China had agreed at a meeting in Bali in November to resume talks between their senior officials. But those plans were derailed earlier this year after a Chinese surveillance balloon hovered over the United States, sparking anger in Washington, which in turn led Beijing to delay the resumption of talks.
In recent weeks, Biden has sent several cabinet secretaries to Beijing to stabilize the relationship. Kerry’s trip follows visits to China by Antony J. Blinken, the Secretary of State, and Janet L. Yellen, the Secretary of the Treasury. Commerce Secretary Gina M. Raimondo is scheduled to visit China after Mr. Kerry.
“I think there is a way to get to a solution, to establish a working relationship with China that benefits them and us,” Biden said in an interview with DailyExpertNews recently.
What have the US and China already done to tackle climate change?
The 2015 Paris Agreement, a groundbreaking accord in which nearly every country agreed to curb emissions and prevent a dangerous global temperature rise, exists largely because the United States and China struck a deal.
Putting aside decades of sparring over who should cut carbon pollution first, the two agreed to act together, albeit at different paces. That pact enabled the United States and China to convince other leaders that every country, regardless of its level of wealth or responsibility for causing climate change, has a responsibility to solve the problem.
The United States is aiming to reduce emissions by nearly 50 percent this decade and to add no more emissions to the atmosphere by 2050. China has said emissions will rise until 2030 before they start to fall and then stop by 2060.
Both countries are roughly on track to meet their near-term targets, analysts said. But there are still major hurdles.
The United States is investing $370 billion in clean energy and is enforcing regulations to reduce pollution from exhaust pipes and chimneys. But at the same time it approved new oil and gas projects and failed to deliver on its promises to help poorer countries pay for their own transition from fossil fuels.
China is the world leader in electric vehicles and generates more energy from solar energy than all other countries combined. But the consumption of coal, the nastiest fossil fuel, continues to rise dangerously. China’s coal-fired power plant construction has recently gained momentum after leaders downplayed their commitment to cut coal and re-emphasized “energy security”.
What does the US want from the meeting?
Mr Kerry has said he hopes to work with China on at least three issues: reducing methane, a powerful greenhouse gas that leaks from oil and gas wells; deforestation; and phasing out Chinese coal consumption.
The United States has also urged China to set new, tougher climate targets, including an earlier date for emissions to peak.
In an interview, Mr. Kerry hopes to come up with some “specific new actions that will get the ball rolling” to reduce emissions.
What does China want?
In most cases, the Chinese government wants to focus on the goals it has already set and the policies it is pursuing to get there. It is not eager to set new targets, especially if it fears that a potential successor to Mr Biden will default on his commitments.
China is known for setting achievable goals and meeting them. It has already surpassed its target of increasing the share of energy from non-fossil fuel sources by 25 percent by 2030.
“They feel like they’ve done a lot of work,” said Bernice Lee, director of research at Chatham House, a UK-based think tank, and an expert on China’s climate policy. “They clearly want to point to the large amount of renewables as part of the energy mix that is increasing, and they consider this an achievement.”
But she added: “The question is whether it is able to talk about faster coal phase-out.”
Despite its huge economy and emissions, China is trying to position itself as a defender of the developing world. For nearly two decades, China has been the largest national emitter, but the average pollution per person is lower than most wealthy countries, and Beijing has long maintained that those countries should shoulder a greater burden in reducing greenhouse gases and financing global action. Mr. Xie and other officials are likely to reinforce that message. Chinese officials may also be pressuring Mr. Kerry over tariffs Washington has imposed on Chinese-made solar panels.
“The U.S. has quite a bit of influence in other areas outside of climate, especially trade, so China is probably hoping that positive action on climate will help ease tensions on other fronts,” said Qi Qin, a Chinese energy analyst for the Center for Research. on Energy and Clean Air, an organization headquartered in Finland.
What is the likely outcome?
China watchers are keeping expectations low for this meeting, in part because the Chinese government, like most governments, doesn’t like to give the impression that it has been pressured to act. Observers do not expect major new statements about emission targets or coal reduction.
“I don’t think they want to give the impression that John Kerry got there and told them what to do,” said Michael Greenstone, an economics professor at the University of Chicago.
One possible outcome is that both countries agree to regular meetings between the US and China on climate change. Experts say this would be a strong result and could pave the way for the United Nations climate summit scheduled for November in Dubai.
Ms. Qin, the energy analyst, noted that recent visits to Beijing by Mr. Blinken, the Secretary of State, and Ms. Yellen, the Finance Minister, have failed to yield any major similarities. Instead, Ms. Qin said, these meetings “could serve as the basis for a summit of top leaders later this year, where we can expect something more tangible.”
Chris Buckley reporting contributed.