With more than 50 matches played in IPL 2024, no team has qualified for the play-offs and no team is out of the race yet. The play-off chances of Mumbai Indians (MI) and Royal Challengers Bengaluru (RCB) are hanging by a thread after Sunrisers Hyderabad defeated Rajasthan Royals by a single point on Thursday. Moreover, MI have continued their dismal IPL 2024 campaign after suffering a 24-run defeat at home to Kolkata Knight Riders on Friday. After their eighth defeat in eleven games, five-time champions MI are now on the brink of elimination.
The Hardik Pandya-led team will need a lot of results to finish in the top four.
Meanwhile, MI's heartbreaking loss has brought some confidence to the RCB camp as Mumbai can get a maximum of twelve points if they win the remaining three matches, which is discouraging.
Remaining matches of MI
May 6: vs SRH, Wankhede Stadium
May 11: vs. KKR, Eden Gardens
May 17: vs LSG, Wankhede Stadium
Mathematically, MI has not yet been eliminated from the competition and also has an outside chance of qualifying.
First of all, Mumbai need to win all their remaining matches to stay in the hunt.
RR and KKR are already at the top with 16 and 14 points respectively and are far from within MI's reach. Technically, MI would need RR and KKR to win all their remaining matches to make way for them.
The winner of the clash between SRH and LSG on May 8 will rise to 14 points from the current 12.
The winner of the SRH vs LSG match will have to win the remaining three matches and score at least 16 points. The winner of this match must also win the remaining three matches.
While the loser of the match would also have to lose the next three matches and end the season with 12 points.
Finally, none of the teams outside the top four are allowed to get past 12 points.
In such a scenario, Mumbai could move level with the other five teams with 12 points each and would require a significant NRR boost to climb the ladder and grab the fourth spot in the standings.
RCB, on the other hand, are currently at the bottom of the IPL 2024 points table with just three wins from ten matches.
However, they looked in a better position than MI after winning two consecutive away games against SRH and GT.
Despite early setbacks this season, RCB still have a mathematical chance of making the play-offs. Their recovery work begins at home against a struggling GT on Saturday and RCB should make the most of the match.
Other fixtures from RCB
May 4: vs GT, Bengaluru
May 9: vs. PBKS, Dharamsala
May 12: vs DC, Bengaluru
May 18: vs CSK, Bengaluru
Like any other side placed in the bottom half of the points table, RCB also need to win their remaining four matches and hopefully they will take advantage of the home advantage with three matches left to play in Chinnaswamy.
However, if RCB wants to qualify for the IPL 2024 play-offs, the simple math is that you need to back the top three (RR, KKR and one of the SRH/LSG) to win as many matches as possible, while the next six teams above just lose. the same number so that RCB can finish above them in the standings. Here are some possible ways this can be achieved.
RCB would want the winner of the SRH-LSG clash on May 8 to win all their remaining matches to cement their spot at least at three.
They also want the loser of the SRH vs LSG match to lose the next three matches and remain stuck on 12 points.
MI should win no more than two of their remaining four league matches.
GT and PBKS should win no more than two of their remaining four league matches.
CSK and DC should not win more than one of their remaining league matches.
RR and KKR would need to win at least three of their remaining four league matches.
In summary, RCB must hope that all the above permutations will go their way, with the six teams above them suffering heavy defeats, while the Royal Challengers themselves will need to pick up handsome wins to clinch the fourth spot for qualification for the IPL 2024 play-offs.
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