Tensions between Ukraine and Russia are at their highest in years, with Russian troop build-up near the two nations’ borders, raising fears that Moscow could launch an invasion.
Ukraine has warned that Russia is trying to destabilize the country in anticipation of a planned military invasion. Western powers have repeatedly warned Russia against further aggressive actions against Ukraine.
The Kremlin has denied it plans to attack, saying NATO’s support for Ukraine — including increased arms supplies and military training — poses a growing threat on Russia’s western flank.
The picture is complicated – but here’s an overview of what we know.
The situation:
The United States and NATO have described the movements and concentrations of troops in and around Ukraine as “unusual”.
As many as 100,000 Russian troops are still amassed on the Ukrainian border, despite warnings from US President Biden and European leaders of dire consequences if Putin proceeds with an invasion. And US intelligence findings in December estimate that Russia could launch a military offensive in Ukraine “as soon as early 2022”.
The history:
Tensions between Ukraine and Russia, both former Soviet states, escalated in late 2013 over a landmark political and trade deal with the European Union. After pro-Russian then-President Viktor Yanukovych suspended talks — reportedly under pressure from Moscow — weeks of protests erupted in Kiev into violence.
Then, in March 2014, Russia annexed Crimea, an autonomous peninsula in southern Ukraine with strong Russian loyalties, on the pretext of defending its interests and those of Russian-speaking citizens.
NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg has said that “a heavy price will be paid for Russia” if it invades Ukraine, a NATO partner, again.
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